Florida Panthers Still Holding on After First Quarter of 2010/11 NHL Season
The revitalized Southeast Division is becoming a tougher place to play every year. First it was Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis in Tampa Bay and then Eric Staal in Carolina. Now Washington has Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green. Even Atlanta has Evander Kane and Zach Bogosian. Now Tampa Bay has started to reload with the remarkable Steven Stamkos.
The Southeast has become a depository for some of the best young talent in the entire National Hockey League.
While that has been happening the Florida Panthers have plodded along, finishing low, drafting high and yet somehow not breaking out of their string of losing seasons.
This year the Panthers played their 20th game of the season versus the Boston Bruins and lost it 3-1 to finish 9-11 for the first quarter. They are currently last in their division and 12th in the Eastern Conference.
There is good news in this story, however. The Panthers are only five points away from third place in their division and a playoff spot. Florida is currently the best defensive team in the Southeast division. Their 57 goals against are nine fewer than the next-stingiest defense in the division, the Washington Capitals, have allowed. This tight defense puts them behind only Boston, Montreal, Columbus and Detroit in the entire NHL. They are tied with St. Louis for giving up the fifth-fewest goals in the league.
One scoring superstar could promote the Florida Panthers out of the NHL basement and into the upper echelon of NHL clubs.
Goaltending
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Tomas Vokoun has been one of the best goalies in the league since the lockout.
The high shot count in Florida has afforded Tomas the opportunity to be a league leader in save percentage ever since he joined the club. Among the NHL goalies who have played at least half of their team's minutes he was third last year with a .925, behind Tim Thomas and Ryan Miller. During the 2008-09 season he was second behind Tim Thomas with a .926 save percentage. The year before his .919 save percentage saw him tie for ninth best in the league. This all happened while being among the league leaders in minutes played on a team that was giving up the most shots on goal per game in the league.
Vokoun has been a workhorse and a glutton for punishment, all while providing top-quality goaltending in Florida. His .924 save percentage has him ninth in the league through the first quarter of this season. This while playing twice as many minutes as two of the goalies ahead of him, Corey Crawford and Mathieu Garon.
Backup goalie Scott Clemmensen has never seemed to be able to make the transition from the more controlled situations he confronted in New Jersey to the more wild west defensive atmosphere he has been exposed to in Florida. He has started four games and played in six and sports a miserable .891 save percentage. He gives up 0.85 goals a game more than Vokoun does.
Vokoun is in the last year of a $5.7 million a year contract. He is the only reason Florida has been as good as it has been the last three seasons, which is frightening. It will be a tough decision for new GM Dale Tallon to make. If you can sign the soon-to-be 35-year-old goalie, do you and for how much? Do you trade him for picks and take your chances this season? Do you let him play out the year, hope to make the playoffs, and then pray you can replace him in the offseason?
Jacob Markstrom is ranked as the top Florida Panther prospect by Hockey's Future. The young goalie is currently the goalie of the future in Florida. How well he does in the AHL this year may help make Tallon's decision easier. After 17 games so far, Markstrom has a scary .880 save percentage and 3.68 goals-against average. This suggests the 20-year-old probably won't be ready for the NHL soon.
Goaltending in the future for Florida has to be the team's most pressing concern.
Defense
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Defense had been the critical unaddressed weakness in Florida since the lockout. So far this year the Panthers have given up two fewer shots on goal per game than they did last year. They have moved from being a perennial worst in the league to 18th in shots against. They are not the New Jersey Devils of a few years past, but this is a considerable improvement.
Dennis Wideman was the big addition to the Florida defense this year. The offensively talented Wideman is the new power-play quarterback. He leads the team in power-play ice time, goals and points. The puck mover is a part of the defensive renaissance. It helps to have a skater and a playmaker to get the puck out of your zone and keep it in the opponents end. He has been killing penalties in Florida, as well.
Mike Weaver was a much more low-key addition to the Panthers. He led last year's league-best penalty kill in St Louis in ice time. He's doing the same for Florida, and the kill is improving. Weaver is smallish for a defensive specialist. He's playing more minutes in Florida than he did in St. Louis and seems to be helping the team's overall defensive play.
The often-maligned Bryan McCabe is still providing his big body presence and big point shot. The veteran offensive defenseman is playing more minutes than might be expected on a defensively conscious team. He hasn't seemed to hurt Florida yet, and he's plus-five, along with his 11 points. If can provide 15 goals and 40-50 points for the Panthers this year while remaining a plus player, he could be a key piece to the puzzle.
Former fourth-overall draft pick Bryan Allen has been one of the six defensemen Florida has used almost exclusively this year. The hulking (6'5" 226 lbs.) 30-year-old was one of the principals in the infamous Roberto Luongo deal. He suffered a knee injury that kept him out most of the 2007-08 season and seemed to slow him last year. The physical defender was more up to speed this year. He adds a big, nasty edge to the Florida defense. He has been one of Florida's big penalty killers this year, as well.
Unfortunately, Allen broke his foot last week and is expected to miss two to four weeks of play.
Dmitry Kulikov was a pleasant surprise for the Florida Panthers last year despite a knee injury that sidelined him for 14 games. The slick-skating sophomore played with a confidence that would have left the brash P.K. Subban impressed. While not approaching his great junior offensive numbers, look for that offensive contribution to improve as he matures in the NHL. A strong-skating defender who always seems to know what to do with the puck is never a bad thing to have on your team.
Jason Garrison is another young defenseman who is logging considerable quality defensive minutes for the Panthers.
Former 10th-overall pick Keaton Ellerby will likely be called on to pick up the slack on defense with Allen out. The former Kamloops Blazer hasn't shown any offensive skills yet at the NHL level. He had 19 points in 58 games in the AHL last year with Rochester.
Ellerby is a classic positional defensive defenseman with a nasty edge to his game. Since becoming a professional he has played with much more control and maturity than he showed in junior. He needs to add muscle to that 6'4" frame.
Joe Callahan is a recent call-up to help cover for Allen's injury. The big 6'3", 210-lbs 27-year-old will get a chance to show if he belongs.
Offense
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Florida has been in the bottom third of the league offensively this year. Tallon traded last year's second-leading scorer Nathan Horton and Greg Campbell for Dennis Wideman and the pick that turned out to be high-school phenom Nick Bjugstad. The Panthers also get the Bruins third-round pick in this year's NHL entry draft. Last year Florida had the third-worst offense in the entire NHL. Despite the loss of Horton, they have managed not to sink too far.
Speedy youngster Michael Frolik is leading the team in scoring with 13 points in 21 games and looks like their most dangerous player. Sniper David Booth seems to have recovered from last year's concussion and is contributing. He was a player who looked like he was going to be one of the league's better left wingers before the Richard's hit.
There has been an unexpected offensive contribution from quick-footed career checker Marty Reasoner, who has 11 points already this year. Reasoner has a career-best 30 points to date, so don't expect a lot more offense from that quarter.
Stephen Weiss is another high Panther draft pick who is being looked to as the quality first-line center the Panthers need. Unfortunately, he's 27 years old and has yet to flirt with greatness. The fourth-overall pick from 2001 had 28 goals and 60 points last year. He's currently on pace for 20 and 40, which makes you no one's number one center. Weiss has to provide more offense or expect to drift down the depth chart.
Weiss, along with Reasoner and 24-year-old Mike Santorelli, keep the Panthers very competitive in the faceoff circle. If Florida manages to land a real first-line center, Weiss might find his niche on the second line as a quality two-way center.
Florida's forwards are a strange mix of struggling veterans and underachieving youngsters approaching their prime. Radek Dvorak, Corey Stillman and Steve Reinprecht don't have many years left in them. Steve Bernier, Chris Higgins, Rostislav Olesz and yes, even Stephen Weiss, need to progress offensively or they will be supplanted by younger talents like Shawn Matthias, Mike Santorelli, Michal Repik and Kenndal McArdle.
This team needs a talented offensive star to gel around. It has gone too long with a pack of young, talented players that has no great, young star to lead them.
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Prospects
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The continuous failure of Florida Panther teams has resulted in a stream of high draft picks. These young talents have come through Florida for years now, yet not one has developed into the team-defining superstar they require.
The current lineup features home grown draft picks Michael Frolik (10th in 2006), David Booth (53rd in 2004), Stephen Weiss (fourth in 2001), Rostislav Olesz (7th in 2004), Michal Repik (40th in 2007), Kenndal McArdle (20th in 2005), Dmitry Kulikov (14th in 2009) and Keaton Ellerby (10th in 2007).
Despite all those prospects in the lineup, Hockey's Future just ranked the Panthers as having the fourth-best organizational depth in the league.
Last year's draft brought defenseman Erik Gudbranson, American center Nick Bjugstad and the enigmatic John McFarland into the organization. Throw in Quinton Howden and there are four players likely to be quality NHLers in the future.
The Panthers are still searching for their Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos or Sidney Crosby. If they never find him, they have to hope that a depth of quality talent will overcome that lack of one great star.
Special Teams
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New general manager Dale Tallon added some inexpensive, defensively responsible players immediately after getting the job in Florida. Last year the penalty kill was 23rd in the league and had a 79.4 percent success rate. Right now it stands 15th, with an 83.1 percent success rate. It's not a huge leap forward, but it is a tangible improvement in what was a team weakness.
Last year's power play was the league's second-worst at 4.2 percent and gave up eight short-handed goals. Currently, despite the addition of Wideman as quarterback, the power play has been a league-worst 6.4 percent, and it has given up three short-handed goals already. The loss of Nathan Horton has been telling.
The power play needs an offensive star to lead it even more than the team does.
Prognosis
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Florida still seems like the weak sister in the improving Southeast division. The team has improved defensively. They still have Tomas Vokoun to hold them in games and keep them close. The team needs to find or draft that one great player that pushes the group of young talent they have accumulated into a critical mass that can dominate at the NHL level.
The biggest immediate problem the team has is goaltending. Tomas Vokoun is 34 and great. He becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Florida doesn't have a replacement that even looks good at this moment. The loss of Vokoun with no adequate replacement in view will cause the team to slide backwards yet again. Does the Florida fanbase have any willingness to accept this team getting worse again? It's hard to believe they do.
If Vokoun can be signed for four or five years to a contract that is not cap-crippling or an adequate replacement can be found, the Panthers should be able to make a big leap forward in the next couple of years. This will give prospect Jacob Markstrom time to develop into the quality NHL goalie he is projected to become. If he is not the goalie of the future, they will have time to find someone else to be the goalie Florida needs.
A better defensive team hopefully won't require the greatness of a Vokoun to keep them competitive.
The Panthers also need more offense. One great star in the mix makes everyone better. A top-quality NHL forward improves the power play. There are enough supporting performers at the NHL level and on the farm to complement that one great star. Let's face it, a top 10 talent is more fun to watch than nine good players struggling to score goals.
Florida still doesn't seem ready to take the big step forward this year. Another year with high draft picks will not hurt this team. By that time, the team could be ready to add a top-quality offensive free agent. A Marian Hossa-like signing in Florida could finally ignite the offense.
Next year, if the team has a quality goalie between the pipes, I expect the Panthers to make the playoffs. All the young talent that has been stockpiled looks to be ready for numerous playoff runs for years to come.
The future is bright for the Florida Panthers. They look to be on the cusp of becoming a very good NHL team for a very long time.
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