Colt McCoy: Will He Lead Cleveland Browns To Playoffs Next Year?
Colt McCoy wasn't supposed to play quarterback for the Cleveland Browns this season.
He was a project quarterback, a guy who would sit for two or three years before being given a legitimate shot at the starting job.
Well, flush those thoughts down the toilet.
After injuries to Seneca Wallace and Jake Delhomme, McCoy was forced into the starting lineup in Week 6.
And he's done pretty damn well for himself so far despite having a lot of doubters out there (including me, I admit).
But has McCoy performed well enough to take the lowly Browns to the playoffs in 2011?
I'm no politician, but it's time to debate.
5. No: The AFC Is Loaded and Will Be Next Year, Too
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The AFC has been pretty stacked in recent years, it's stacked this year and it will be stacked again next year.
It has the powerhouses—the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Colts, etc.—and the up-and-coming teams, like the Raiders and Chiefs.
Colt McCoy will have the Browns staying competitive (as evidenced by this season), but asking him to take Cleveland to the playoffs in that conference might be a bit of a stretch.
5. Yes: He Doesn't Make Mistakes
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Colt McCoy has three interceptions in his first five starts, which is decent but still puts him on pace for double-digit interceptions over a 16-game season.
Still, if you look a little deeper into the numbers, you'll see that McCoy threw 98 straight passes without being picked off, a very impressive streak for any quarterback.
But that interception came on Cleveland's last play against Jacksonville on Sunday, and he wouldn't have even thrown that pick if it wasn't a last-ditch effort to win that game.
McCoy might not be winning the Browns very many games, but he's certainly not losing them.
4. No: The Browns Offense Struggles
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Let's not overlook Cleveland's problems just because of their recent success.
The Browns offense scores less points (19.2 per game) than its defense allows (20.6 per game).
While that defensive number looks pretty good, the Browns still give up too many yards—about 360 per game—including 243 yards through the air.
That defense has definitely showed signs of improvement (22 takeaways), but that offense isn't going to get by if it continues to put up mediocre numbers like that.
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4. Yes: The Browns Have Stayed Close All Season
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Cleveland's record may be 3-7, but that's as misleading as the Redskins being above .500.
Five of Cleveland's seven losses are by seven points or fewer, and the Browns' average margin of defeat is about 7.1 points per game.
The Browns were very much alive at the end of their last two games, and they've actually lost three games by four points or less.
Cleveland could easily by 5-5 or even better at this point had a couple of plays went the other way.
3. No: The Browns Are One-Dimensional
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There's a reason why Peyton Hillis is putting up monster fantasy numbers: The Browns are one-dimensional.
Cleveland's offense ranks 28th in total yards and just 30th in passing yards.
Surprisingly, the Browns only rank 15th in rushing yards, but they have been relying on the running game pretty heavily all season.
That's evidenced by the fact that Colt McCoy combined for less than 250 total passing yards in his two wins as a starter, and he's thrown just three touchdown passes in his first five games.
Cleveland will live and die by the run—not the pass—which certainly is never a good thing if you're trying to come from behind.
3. Yes: His Experience
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I'm fine with sitting a young quarterback for a couple of years before throwing him into his first NFL action; it's worked for guys like Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers.
But there are some things you can't learn by sitting on the sidelines. You have to learn them on the field of play.
This is what we call experience.
McCoy has gained valuable insight into what it takes to be an NFL quarterback that he would never have gotten if he were just standing there holding a clipboard.
2. No: The Browns Offense Isn't Talented Enough
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Peyton Hillis is a man-child of a running back who continues to make opposing defenders look silly each and every week.
But outside of him, the Browns are pretty thin as far as offensive playmakers.
They do have some nice players—like Chansi Stuckey and even a do-it-all guy like Josh Cribbs—but they lack a tight end who can stretch the field or a true No. 1 wide receiver.
Cleveland has to improve its offense through the draft or through trades to give McCoy some more receiving options.
2. Yes: His Accuracy Is Still There
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The accuracy that made Colt McCoy so successful at Texas has followed him to the NFL.
In his first five games as a starter, McCoy has completed 81 of 127 passes—that's 63.8 percent.
To put that into perspective, that's right on pace with Aaron Rodgers (64.1 percent) and better than Matt Ryan (63.1), Michael Vick (62.8) and Ben Roethlisberger (62.6).
1. No: The AFC North Is Too Good
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If the Browns were playing in the NFC West, they'd probably be in first place right now.
But they're not.
Cleveland plays in arguably the toughest division in all of football, the AFC North, along with the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers.
Cincinnati is having a down year, but is still a pretty talented football team, and Pittsburgh and Baltimore aren't going away anytime soon.
1. Yes: Hanging With the Big Boys
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Colt McCoy was thrown in front of the firing squad the second he became the Browns' starter, facing the likes of the Steelers, Saints, Patriots and Jets in his first four NFL games.
No one really gave him a chance in any of those matchups, but he had a very respectable 23-for-33 performance against the Steelers, he beat the Saints and Patriots and he might have been a Chansi Stuckey fumble away from beating the Jets.
I also should add that McCoy's Browns beat the Saints and Patriots in consecutive games by a combined 33 points.
The Verdict: Will Colt McCoy Lead the Browns to the Playoffs Next Season?
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Colt McCoy and the Browns have a lot of odds to overcome to make the playoffs next season.
They lack any real threat in the passing game, and they play in a loaded division, not to mention a loaded conference.
But McCoy has shown some solid progression so far in his short NFL career, and he's brought the two things that helped him succeed in college with him to the NFL: accuracy and mistake-free play.
I'm still convinced that McCoy will need some offensive assistance in 2011, but he's helped his team hang with—and even beat—some of the NFL's top dogs this season.
He's also gained some valuable experience that should allow him to develop his game as his career moves forward.
Plus, you just never know with the NFL.
After all, who expected the Rams, Bucs or Raiders to be where they are now?
Exactly.
The Verdict: The Browns will win an AFC Wild Card spot next year and make the playoffs.
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