Lions vs. Cowboys: Will Detroit Finally Become Road Warriors?

On paper, last week’s contest in Ralph Wilson Stadium should have been a great opportunity for the Lions to break their 24 road-game losing game streak against an 0-8 Buffalo team.

All Detroit had to do was pressure the opposing quarterback, limit their penalties, and generate a solid ground game—in rainy conditions, against the team with the worst run defense in the NFL.

A victory over the Bills would have moved Detroit’s win total from two to three, one better than last year, with seven games still to play in 2010.

None of that happened.

One for the Road, Finally?

The match-up this Sunday between Detroit and Dallas features two 2-7 football teams. While the Lions' road woes are well-documented, the Cowboys haven’t won a game at home this year.

The contest will be played in the new $1.15 billion Cowboys Stadium. This venue has a retractable roof, and including standing room, can hold up to 110,000 people.

Detroit has three remaining road games left: against Dallas, Tampa Bay (6-3) and Miami (5-5). The last four visitors to Ford Field are: New England (7-2), Chicago (7-3), Green Bay (6-3) and Minnesota (3-6).

While Detroit has the talent to beat any team in the NFL on any given Sunday (or Thursday), the Dallas game may be the Lions best remaining opportunity to finally end their away-game losing streak.

If Detroit can pull it together and put Dallas away, it would accomplish most of what the Lions should have taken care of against Buffalo.

A win on the road would immediately lift the monkey off their backs and give them a much-needed boost in confidence, maybe even enough to beat Tampa Bay and Miami and make it three road wins in a row.

If so, it would be the most consecutive road wins for Detroit since 2004.

With new-found confidence and at least three wins under their belts, the Lions might even find a way to beat some division rivals at home and become the NFC North spoiler.

Chicago’s luck can’t last forever, and beating Minnesota in the final game of the season would be a great send-off for Brett Favre after all the times he's beaten the Lions over the years.

The Offensive Match-up

It’s doubtful that Cowboy Stadium will be filled with 110,000 fans on Sunday, even after Dallas’ impressive win against the Giants last week.

But it’s a sure bet that the crowd noise will still be deafening, making it difficult for the Lions’ quarterback to audible at the line and for the Lions’ offensive line to hear the snap count.

Unless offensive line coach George Yarno managed to pull off a miracle during practices this week, crowd noise could lead to a lot of false start penalties on Detroit.

The Quarterbacks

If you measure by yards/game through Week 10 this season, the Cowboys own the fourth best passing offense in the NFL and Detroit’s passing offense is ranked seventh in the league.

This Sunday, both teams will be playing with back-up quarterbacks.

Former Lion Jon Kitna will be the starting QB for Dallas. Since replacing the injured Tony Romo, Kitna has averaged a passer rating of 82.2 and a pass completion percentage of 61.2.

During his two full seasons as Detroit’s starting quarterback, Kitna threw for over 4,000 yards each year. In the victory over the Giants last week, Kitna went 13 of 22 for 327 yards, 3 TDs and one interception. This year, Kitna has thrown seven TDs against seven interceptions in four games.

Former 49ers quarterback Shaun Hill will start for Detroit, still wearing a cast on his non-passing arm. In his two stints replacing the twice-injured Matthew Stafford this season, Hill has averaged a 78.8 passer rating and a pass completion percentage of 60.5. During the eight games he’s played this year, Hill has thrown 10 TDs against eight interceptions.

Other Offensive Weapons

Both Dallas and Detroit have a lot of solid offensive weapons at their disposal.

Dallas

The Cowboys’ wide receivers, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and former Lion wideout Roy Williams are each 6’2 or 6’3” and weigh in at about 215 lbs. They are all scoring threats.

Dallas tight end Jason Witten is 6’6” and weighs over 260 lbs. Witten has 46 receptions so far for 513 yards and 3 TDs.

The Cowboys' offensive arsenal includes three running backs: Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tashard Choice.

Neither team’s running game has been effective this year. The Cowboys actually rank behind Detroit in total rushing yards (705 versus 730).

Jones is the only Dallas RB to have a 100+ yard rushing game this year, against a tough Tennessee defense in October.

However, it’s worth noting that last week against the Giants, Jones carried the ball 14 times for 51 yards and had three receptions for 81 yards and one TD, while Marion Barber ran the ball eight times for 47 yards.

Detroit fans won’t be comforted by recalling that prior to playing the Lions last week and racking up 133 yards and a touchdown, Buffalo RB Fred Jackson had not run for more than 73 yards in a game this season.

Detroit

The Lions’ wide receivers include 6'5" 236 lb Calvin Johnson (currently tied for the lead among all NFL wideouts with nine touchdowns) and 6' 198 lb Nate Burleson, who has come on strong and scored three TDs in the last five games.

Detroit also has perhaps one of the best tight end tandems in the NFL.

Brandon Pettigrew has 42 receptions for 412 yards and 3 TDs, while Tony Scheffler has 31 receptions for 273 yards and one TD. Scheffler is also a very capable slot receiver.

Jahvid Best is the Lions' featured running back. After scoring four rushing and one receiving TDs in his first two games, Best suffered turf-toe injuries that have slowed him down considerably. He hasn’t scored a point since the second game of the season, and has yet to record a single 100-yard rushing game.

Best has been spelled for the most part by Kevin Smith, who missed the first three games of this season while recovering from surgery to repair a season-ending ACL knee injury sustained in mid-December of last year.

During last week’s game against Buffalo, Smith injured his thumb and this week underwent surgery to repair it. He’s expected to miss the next several games.

Taking Smith’s place will be former Seahawk Maurice Morris, who joined the Lions in February of 2009 after playing in Seattle for seven seasons. Morris is a capable running back who is faster and has better movement than Smith, but is a less reliable blocker and receiver out of the backfield.

Defensive Match-up

Detroit is ranked 21st in total defense (17th against the pass and 26th against the run). The Lions’ defense has allowed teams to score an average of 22.4 points/game.

Dallas is ranked 23rd in total defense (21st against the pass and 23rd against the run). The Cowboys defense has allowed teams to score an average of 28 points/game..

The Lions have recorded 25 sacks and nine interceptions so far this season, while the Cowboys have recorded 17 sacks and seven interceptions.

Dallas has allowed opposing teams to score 20 passing TDs this year, while the Lions have allowed only 13. However, Detroit has allowed 10 rushing TDs while Dallas has allowed only six.

Both defenses have forced six fumbles.

Special Teams

Detroit’s Stephen Logan is currently ranked third in the NFL in punt returns with 13.6 yards/attempt (245 yards), and third in kickoff returns with 28.8 yards/attempt (834 yards).  

Dallas’ Dez Bryant is currently ranked second in punt returns with 14.4 yards/attempt (202 yards), and their kickoff returner, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, is currently ranked 18th with 21.7 yards/attempt (543 yards).

Dallas punter Mat McBriar is ranked second in net punting yardage, averaging 41.9 yards/punt. Detroit punter Nick Harris is ranked 17th in net punting yardage, averaging 37.5 yards/punt.

This year, Dallas kicker David Buehler has made 11 of 15 field goals. Buehler is four of six from 40-49 yards and made his only attempt from 50-plus yards.

Detroit kicker Dave Rayner was signed after the Jets game to replace the injured Jason Hanson. During his five-year career in the NFL, Rayner has made 14 of 21 field goals attempted from 40-49 yards and is 1 of 5 from 50-plus yards.

In the rain against Buffalo, Rayner converted two field goals from 29 and 49 yards. He also missed from 49 yards due in part to a poor snap.

Cutting to the Chase

Penalties could well be the difference in this game. Detroit’s offense has been penalized 656 yards this season to the Cowboys’ 566 yards. The Lions' defense has been penalized 567 yards to Dallas’ 340 yards.

Detroit has the advantage on defense despite the penalty disparity.

Dallas can’t match the Lions' defensive line rotation and the quarterback pressure it generates, even if Cliff Avril doesn’t play Sunday. The Dallas secondary is about on par with Detroit’s, but their LB corps has been better at preventing long ground gains than Detroit’s has been so far this year.

Crowd noise will tilt the overall advantage on offense slightly to Dallas. Detroit’s offense will have to play very disciplined football to avoid drive-killing, punt-inducing false start penalties.

The Dallas defense has given up more points than Detroit, especially via the pass. Only five teams in the league have given up fewer sacks than the Lions. Shaun Hill should have sufficient time to spread the ball around to his receivers.

Detroit’s best offensive game plan this week would be to go to Calvin Johnson, Burleson, Pettigrew, Scheffler, and Jahivid Best out of the backfield early and often, and focus on getting first downs more often than swinging for the fence.

The quicker that Shaun Hill finds his receivers beyond the first down marker, and the longer the Cowboys' defense is on the field, the better the odds become for a Detroit win.

Playing in Cowboy Stadium, the Lions have a slight edge in special teams play. The kicker match-up is basically a wash. Dave Rayner shouldn’t hurt Detroit, but he won’t be the reliable, long-range asset in a pinch that Jason Hanson is.

The Bottom Line

By playing cohesive, disciplined football this Sunday, the Lions can win this game against Dallas.

But if Detroit imposes its will on Dallas from the initial kickoff, and instead of taking just what the Cowboys give them the Lions take what they need (as Bleacher Report writers Michael Sudds and Blue in Greer have recently urged), they will win this game.