San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Two Up-and-Coming QBs Face Off

The 49ers will not win the NFC West.

At least I don't think they will, so let's just get that out of the way.

But if they do then they have to win Sunday against Tampa Bay, and then eight days later on Monday Night Football at Arizona, and well, pretty much their other three division games after that as well.

In fact, just to be safe, they might want to win one of their roadies against San Diego or Green Bay while they're at it.

Do the fellas have it in them to go 7-1 over the second half of the season, and really 9-2 over the final 11 games? Probably not, and starting the year 0-5 is the equivalent of giving Usain Bolt a thirty yard head start in the 100-yard dash.

Okay, maybe not. This is the NFC West, after all. Maybe it's more like giving Forrest Gump a fifteen yard head start while he's wearing a blindfold.

Still, it's a monumental obstacle to overcome.

They don't have to worry about getting to that magical nine win plateau on Sunday though. As the cliche goes, the 49ers have to take 'em one game at a time, and even though the Buccaneers come into town 6-3, their defense on paper seems to fit what the locals do like a glove.

The Bucs are 31st in the league against the run, allowing 143.8 yards per game and 30th in yards per carry, giving up 4.8 yards per tote.

It gets better. They're also 32nd--as in dead last--in sacks with just eight, which means there's a chance, however remote, that Anthony Davis won't get Troy Smith killed.

With a defense like that, how can Tampa Bay be 6-3?

Well for one thing, they're tied for third in the league with 14 interceptions. But even more telling is the combined record of their six conquests: 14-40.

They beat Cleveland at home (with Jake Delhomme at quarterback, not Colt McCoy), Carolina on the road, Cincinnati away, the Rams at home, at Arizona and the Panthers again at home. Not exactly murderers' row.

The 49ers have beaten at least one winning team in the Raiders, for what it's worth, and have had close losses to the Eagles, Saints and Falcons. The Bucs have been thoroughly slaughtered by Pittsburgh and New Orleans.

Even with their 6-3 record, Tampa Bay has been outscored by 18 points this season, while the 49ers have been outscored by 38. The two teams are a lot closer than they appear at first blush and there's a reason San Francisco is favored.

There's just one thing really that the Buccaneers have in their favor, and that's quarterback Josh Freeman, who in his year and change in the league has already built an impressive resume of fourth quarter comeback wins.

Freeman has all the tools. He's huge, 6'6" and 248 pounds, and very difficult for linebackers to bring down considering they aren't any bigger than he is. His height also enables him to see over the line, giving him passing lanes that are unavailable to his six-foot counterpart on the 49ers, Troy Smith.

However, Freeman is no lumbering oaf. With 221 yards on 34 carries (6.5 a pop) he's also second among quarterbacks in rushing behind Michael Vick. The 49ers haven't faced a quarterback nearly as mobile as him all season. Remember, when they played Philadelphia, Kevin Kolb was under center as Vick was out with a broken rib.

Troy Smith's teammates and coaches have often cited his mobility and improvisational skills as the key reason for the offense's improved play of late. With his ability to get out of the pocket and keep broken plays alive, he does things that defenses can't account for.

It's an attribute of his game that Alex Smith does not possess but one that Freeman also has in spades. He's like a younger, faster version of Ben Roethlisberger.

At his disposal Freeman has a pair of talented rookie receivers in Arrelious Benn and, particularly, Mike Williams, who leads all freshman wideouts in receiving yards with 627. He is second behind the Cowboys' Dez Bryant in catches with 40 and tied for second in touchdowns, behind Patriots' tight end Rob Gronkowski, with five.

Williams was arrested for suspicion of DUI early Friday morning but he was on the team's flight to San Francisco and will start on Sunday.

The Bucs also have fleet-footed tight end Kellen Winslow and a couple of other weapons with 49ers connections.

San Francisco had no use for receiver/kick returner Michael Spurlock last season, waiving him after five games in which he hardly ever saw the field.

In Tampa Bay he's caught 14 passes and a couple of touchdowns as their third receiver and is 11th in the league in kickoff return average at 25.6 yards per return with one taken to the house.

In other words, he's been far more productive than Ted Ginn.

The Buccaneers' main runner these days meanwhile is another rookie, LeGarrette Blount, who went undrafted after a publicized on-field incident ruined his senior season at Oregon. Blount originally agreed to sign with the 49ers, but changed his mind at the last second when he found a backfield less crowded at Tennessee.

It didn't work out with the Titans either, but Tampa Bay scooped him up and all the lad's done is run for 329 yards and three touchdowns over his last four games, despite splitting carries with Cadillac Williams.

Frank Gore's understudy, rookie Anthony Dixon, has 18 yards on ten carries and cannot be trusted to pick up blitzers (ask Smith, Alex). He has an infuriating habit of trying to bounce dives up the middle to the outside, so perhaps one could argue that a mistake was made there.

What cannot be argued is that late rallies have been Freeman's specialty and that the 49ers' defense has given up their fair share and then some.

New Orleans, Atlanta and Carolina have all had game-winning field goal drives against them in the last two minutes and last week the Rams had a game-tying field goal drive that was a Daniel Fells' drop away from becoming a game-winning touchdown and rendering the upcoming game moot.

Tampa probably has the edge at coach too, but really who doesn't against the 49ers?

If the 49ers want to win, it would probably be a good idea to be up three touchdowns with five minutes to go, which would be a neat trick considering they're tied for 30th in the league in scoring at 17.8 points per game.

The Buccaneers are 4-0 in games decided by three points or less, while the 49ers are 1-4 after last week's close escape against St. Louis.

Throw all these stats, numbers and trends into a pot, mix 'em up and hunker down for a helping of geek stew. The aroma won't whet the appetite as the strange brew will have the distinct stench of two teams finishing out of the money.

It says here the 49ers will win because they're more suited to prevail in wet, muddy conditions where throwing the ball will be difficult. But they could just as easily find a way to screw it up. Anyone out there confident enough to put a healthy wad of cash on the game either way would be wise to call that 1-800 number you see in pamphlets at casinos, because surely you have a problem.