NFL Week 11 Picks: 10 Upsets You Can Bet the House on
In today's NFL—the one punctuated by parity—there probably aren't that many upsets. Still, several games have big spreads and big underdogs.
Even without the spread there are plenty of great games out there.
Inside we'll pick all the games, but the last 10 are upset specials. Here are your NFL Week 11 picks.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-8)
1 of 15
Line: Ravens by 10
After a tough loss on the road last Thursday night, the Ravens are starved for a win. They should have no problem grabbing one this weekend.
For one, they benefit from a few extra days to heal up. But they could defeat this Panthers teams on three days rest. DeAngelo Williams was just placed on IR, and Jonathan Stewart probably won't be ready to play either.
Rookie Jimmy Clausen sat out practice this week, which means we might see rookie quarterback Tony Pike's make his first start. Against Ray Lewis and the Ravens defense that should not be pretty.
Prediction: Baltimore 41, Carolina 16
Oakland Raiders (5-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3)
2 of 15
Line: Steelers by 7
The Raiders' strength on offense is there second-ranked, 162-yards-per-game running game. Even though New England reached triple-digit rushing yards last week against the Steelers, the Patriots passing game opened up huge holes for BenJarvus Green-Ellis.
This week, against Jason Campbell, the Steelers don't have to drop James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley into coverage nearly as much.
But that doesn't mean this game will be anywhere near a blowout. The Raiders pass defense is ranked second in the yards allowed; a worse stat for the Steelers is the fact that Oakland has 27 sacks—the most in the AFC.
The Steelers makeshift offensive line will struggle mightily, but quick hitters to Mike Wallace will bail Ben Roethlisberger and company out.
Prediction: Pittsburgh 27, Oakland 17
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
3 of 15
Line: Kansas City by 8
The Chiefs have dropped their past two games. And last week the Broncos torched KC for 452 yards and six touchdowns. But they were playing the second-ranked passing offense in the NFL.
Prior to that, the Chiefs had yielded just four touchdowns in the previous three games. Arizona's offense is a mess right now, even with Larry Fitzgerald. They are second to last in the NFL in yards per game.
The combination means the Chiefs should have no trouble hogging the ball with their top-ranked rushing game. Matt Cassel, Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones will hold the ball for nearly 40 minutes and deal the Cards another loss.
Prediction: Kansas City 24, Arizona 6
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Atlanta Falcons (7-2) at St. Louis Rams (4-5)
4 of 15
Line: Falcons by 3
The Falcons haven't had a cake walk since Week 2 when they thumped the Cardinals. Those nail-biting two months will come to an end this Sunday.
Yes, this is the cliched "trap game" that could cost them an easy win. But with an extra few days to rest up while the coaching staff prepares, the Falcons won't squander this one.
Lately, against Tampa Bay and San Francisco, the Rams have not been able to get big stops when they need.
St. Louis' run defense is one of the better units around, so Michael Turner won't get his usual 20 carries. Nevertheless, with a viable MVP candidate in Matt Ryan, Atlanta will be able to put up plenty of points.
Prediction: Atlanta 37, St. Louis 24
Houston Texans (4-5) at New York Jets (7-2)
5 of 15
Line: Jets by 7
The Jets' problems have been well-documented: They've won the past two games, against sub-.500 teams in overtime, and before that were shut out at home. And although the Texans have fallen on hard times themselves as the losers of three straight, they are still a dangerous opponent.
Andre Johnson is getting healthy again and Matt Schaub has been very sharp the last month. Furthermore, their defense will be able to keep the Jets offense fairly silent for a third straight week...until the fourth quarter.
Mark Sanchez will pull out another minor-miracle, this time at home and let the Jets stroll into first place.
Prediction: New York Jets 23, Houston 20
Washington Redskins (4-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-4)
6 of 15
Line: Titans by 7
There's no way the Redskins can be terrible for a second straight week, right?
Donovan McNabb has to have something left, right? Mike Shanahan knows what he's doing, right?
While those questions float around the Capitol City all week, the Titans have their own questions. Like was Randy Moss worth it? And how is Vince Young going to play without Kerry Collins looking over his shoulder?
Neither team is playing very good football right now, and that has to favor the home team. The Titans will avoid dropping to .500 by winning, albeit in a very ugly manner.
Prediction: Tennessee 24, Washington 20
Seattle Seahawks (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-3)
7 of 15
Line: Saints by 11.5
Sure the Saints looked good in consecutive weeks prior to the bye, and the Seahawks looked horrible in the two games before, beating up on a bad Arizona team. But 11.5 points? That's a pretty wide spread.
The Seahawks are still a sound defensive team and have been very good at getting pressure on the quarterback: Seventh in the NFL in sacks. They'll harass Drew Brees just enough to keep the Seahawks in contention.
On the other side of the ball, however, the Seahawks are not going to churn out much on the ground, so it'll be up to Matt Hasselbeck to play like he did a week ago. He should be able to complete plenty of passes, but he needs his receivers to come up with some big plays.
Prediction: New Orleans 26, Seattle 21
Indianapolis Colts (6-3) at New England Patriots (7-2)
8 of 15
Line: Patriots by 3.5
With the AFC all garbled in terms of a favorite, it's hard to say that this is a matchup of the two best teams in the conference. But it's too early for that any way. It is clear, however, that these are two playoff teams, and two teams that are starting to resemble one another more than ever.
Peyton Manning will have to continue to put the offense on his back. He will do so with much success.
And although Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis have become minor NFL celebrities (at least to the TV broadcasters), Tom Brady is still the most important player on that team. Everything that happened in their crucial win over Pittsburgh last week was because of Brady.
This may seem like the typical "whoever has the ball last will win" game, but more accurately, whoever can come up with a defensive stop in the fourth quarter will win.
Prediction: New England 33, Indianapolis 30 (hey, technically, that's an upset)
Chicago Bears (6-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-4)
9 of 15
Line: Miami by 1.5
The Dolphins offense wasn't exactly tearing up the league when it had three healthy quarterbacks. They managed to topple the equally quarterback-lacking Titans last week, but the Bears are a much different challenge.
Granted this game won't have nearly as many thrills or have the same playoff impact as the epic Bears-Dolphins game of 1985, but it will be a good game.
With the short week, Mike Martz will turn to the running game far more than he has the last month. That will limit Jay Cutler's attempts, but he'll be much more efficient with the ball.
Prediction: Chicago 20, Miami 17
Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Minnesota Vikings (3-6)
10 of 15
Line: Vikings by 3
Just about everything has gone wrong for Brett Favre in his second try at leading the Minnesota Vikings. He already lost his (apparent) finale at Lambeau Field; he lost in his return appearance against the Jets, and he won't "go out on top," barring some sort of miracle. He won't get the team to the playoffs, let alone the Super Bowl.
Still, he has a chance for one last moral victory. A win this week over his former team will be worth something to the 41-year-old, and he is capable of pulling it off.
The Vikings still have Adrian Peterson and should be able to pound him against the Packers 20th-ranked run defense. Brad Childress will want to limit the chances for Clay Matthews to bring down Favre, and they'll take advantage of that with draws and screens.
Prediction: Minnesota 35, Green Bay 32 (OT)
Buffalo Bills (1-8) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-7)
11 of 15
Line: Bengals by 5.5
Break up the Bills! Buffalo has a chance to move to 2-0 in the last two weeks....not exactly a world record, but it's a start for the rebuilding franchise.
And as bad as the Bills have been this year, the Bengals have probably been just as bad. Neither team has run the ball very well lately, which means there will be tons of passes and plenty of turnovers.
The Bills pass defense has been decent this season (ranked seventh in the NFL) so they should be able to limit what Terrell Owens does. And if Carson Palmer continues to be off, the Bills should be afforded a short field several times.
Prediction: Buffalo 29, Cincinnati 23
Detroit Lions (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (2-7)
12 of 15
Line: Cowboys by 6.5
So apparently everything is perfect in Dallas now. They have a new genius head coach, an outstanding offense and an opportunistic defense.
Still, the Cowboys would be wise not to read too many of their press clippings. The Lions are a much better team than their record indicates. They had the Jets beat two weeks ago, and were one missed Dave Rayner field goal away from snapping their 24-game road losing streak.
Instead, they'll snap their new NFL record a week later in Dallas. Shaun Hill has been surprisingly solid in his relief duty and with Calvin Johnson, he always has a great option to throw to. And despite all their losses, the Lions defense has been fairly solid the last month.
Prediction: Detroit 33, Dallas 28
Cleveland Browns (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
13 of 15
Line: Jacksonville by 1.5
Although Peyton Hillis and rookie Colt McCoy are getting most of the attention, the Browns defense has done a pretty stellar the last month.
It seems like this week's test is an easier one than they had when they faced Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England and the Jets in consecutive weeks. But it really isn't.
David Garrard has been remarkably efficient with the football, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes this season. And in the past two games, Maurice Jones-Drew has looked like the MJD of 2009.
This one will hinge on turnovers. Since the Browns have been slightly better at protecting the ball this season, they will be slightly better on Sunday.
Prediction: Cleveland 20, Jacksonville 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) at San Francisco 49ers (3-6)
14 of 15
Line: Buccaneers by 3
Maybe Troy Smith is the answer in San Fran. He sure looked great last week against a pretty decent St. Louis Rams defense. But the reason why the 49ers inched closer to a respectable record was because Frank Gore was the focal point of the offense.
During this four-game stretch, in which the 49ers have won three times, Gore is averaging just under 25 carries per game. And the only time he didn't break 20 carries came in the team's 23-20 loss at Carolina. Gore should be able to run freely on Sunday: the Bucs run defense is 31st in the NFL, only better than Buffalo's.
And with a defense that has allowed its opponents to convert nearly half (46 percent) of their third downs, Josh Freeman will have to do more than "manage the game" this week.
Prediction: San Francisco 24, Tampa Bay 19
New York Giants (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-3)
15 of 15
Line: Eagles by 3
Every week, the new "It Team" comes crashing down back to earth. Last week it was the Giants who were thumped at home by the Cowboys. A week earlier it was the Patriots who were whipped by Cleveland. And before that it was the Jets who were shut out at home by the Packers.
This week, it's the Eagles turn. Michael Vick looked unstoppable against the Redskins. In fact, he's looked unstoppable all season long. But he hasn't yet started a game against a really good defense.
The Giants may have struggled mightily against Dallas, but they still have the most balanced defense in the NFC: third in rushing, fourth in passing,
And even though they haven't gotten much pressure on the opposition (a paltry 12 sacks) they don't need to in order to be successful against Michael Vick. They just need to limit the deep ball and force him to check down to his receivers and backs.
Oh, and if Eli Manning stays away from his bi-weekly interception barrage, that will help too.
Prediction: Giants 37, Eagles 31
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