NFL Playoff Scenarios: 10 Most Likely Playoff Pictures Entering Week 11

Tom Brady and the New England Patriots got a key win over Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday night in Pittsburgh, but the biggest win of Week 10 was the one Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons earned at home against the Baltimore Ravens on the first Thursday night of the NFL season. The winners of each contest appear well-positioned to make a run at home-field advantage in their respective conferences. The losers find themselves in a fight just to have a single home playoff game.

Such is the life of an NFL franchise in a league fraught with parity and flawed powerhouses. The playoff picture will remain murky and unresolved all the way until the final game of Week 17, but a few things are beginning to become clear.

Therefore, let's take a look at the prospective NFL playoff picture by laying out 10 of the most likely playoff pictures that could materialize, ranked from least to most probable.

10. Same Old, Same Old

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INDIANAPOLIS - NOVEMBER 14: Peyton Manning #18 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass during the NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Lucas Oil Stadium on November 14, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana. The Colts won 23-17. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. New England Patriots
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. New York Jets
6. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Giants
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Philadelphia Eagles

This formulation assumes that the hot Colts and Saints stay that way, and strengthen their respective defenses of conference championships last year. Indianapolis will get a chance to make its move right away, as it heads to Foxboro to take on the Pats in Week 11. A win there would go a long way towards a late-season surge, since Indy's schedule opens up a bit for the final stretch of the season.

The Saints will need to wait until Weeks 16 and 17 for their season-defining games, when they take on Atlanta and upstart Tampa Bay. That may be just what New Orleans wants, as it continues to get healthy while working its way back into the playoff picture.

9. Respect The Young Man

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TAMPA, FL - NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Josh Freeman #5 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers scrambles against the Carolina Panthers during the game at Raymond James Stadium on November 14, 2010 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by J. Meric/Getty Images)

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. New England Patriots
6. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. St. Louis Rams
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. New York Giants

This might seem an unlikely scenario in the AFC, where a postseason without the Colts is unimaginable.

Consider, though, that the Titans (just one game behind Indy and newly possessed of Randy Moss) have both games against their primary divisional rivals remaining on the schedule. Two wins would all but ensure the Titans of the division crown, after which Indy would be two losses on the wrong side of the Pats and Steelers.

The Jets, who stand at 7-2 and look more and more sure of themselves behind sophomore passer Mark Sanchez, would surprise no one by locking down home-field advantage.

In the NFC, the Saints fall by the wayside at the hands of the young and cocky Tampa Bay squad, whose coach declared them the class of the conference weeks ago. The Bucs seem like a poor man's Jets, with youth and confidence carrying the day and a startlingly good sophomore signal-caller of their own. Of course, they still have to get by an equally high-octane team in Atlanta.

8. How Will The Wests Be Won?

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SEATTLE - OCTOBER 24: Head coach Pete Carroll of the Seattle Seahawks looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Arizona Cardinals at Qwest Field on October 24, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images)

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Jets
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. San Diego Chargers
5. New England Patriots
6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. New York Giants
3. Chicago Bears
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles

This scenario is all about the West divisions, which are each (without stiff competition) the weakest in their respective conference. In the AFC, the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers all have talent, especially on the offensive side of the ball, but none has put together anything impressive thus far. The Chargers should have the upper hand, purely on the strength of the best quarterback in the division (and maybe the conference) and their forward momentum.

Pete Carroll has the Seahawks in position to win the NFC West with ease, though they have only a one-game edge over St. Louis right now. Love him or hate him (and most of us know which one we feel), Carroll is a brilliant motivator and tutor. He has coaxed the prodigious talent within receiver Mike Williams back to the surface and has generally made a playoff team from a bunch of spare parts. He has that smirk on his face because he knows something you do not.

7. New York, New York

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CLEVELAND - NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Mark Sanchez #6 of the New York Jets throws the ball to a receiver against the Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium on November 14, 2010 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Images)

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Jets
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Tennessee Titans
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Indianapolis Colts

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Giants
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Chicago Bears
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Philadelphia Eagles

The Jets have an efficient passing game, a two-pronged rushing attack and a pair of almost entirely healthy top-tier corners. If they can shut down New England the same way they did early in the season and lock down a potential tiebreaker, they have the AFC East crown in hand.

The Giants' path to a symmetrical dominance of the NFC begins Sunday against Philadelphia. The Eagles and Michael Vick put a really crooked number on the Redskins Monday night and are flying high, but the relentless Giants pass rush could grind that progress to a halt.

Never before have two New York teams met in the Super Bowl, and New Yorkers last had their run of a championship showdown a decade ago when the Yankees and Mets met in the Subway World Series. The Jets and Giants could be on a collision course.

6. California Dreamin'

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HOUSTON - NOVEMBER 07: Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 of the San Diego Chargers looks for a receiver as linebacker Brian Cushing #56 of the Houston Texans applies pressure at Reliant Stadium on November 7, 2010 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Gett

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Jets
2. San Diego Chargers
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. New England Patriots

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Philadelphia Eagles
5. New York Giants
6. New Orleans Saints

It's that time of year again, when everyone prepares for the holidays and the Chargers remember how to play football. San Diego is making its move, and they have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. They might just finish 10-6 or run the table to go 11-5. If the pass-happy Bolts can avoid taking their shaky running game into the cold of New England or Baltimore, they will be in great shape, so they will do everything possible to secure a second-round home game.

Carroll and those Seahawks aren't the only notable USC products who feature prominently in this discussion. Mark Sanchez, Reggie Bush and Clay Matthews all are crucial pieces to their teams' playoff puzzles.

5. Who Wants It More?

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FOXBORO, MA - OCTOBER 17: Ray Lewis #52 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts before a game with the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on October 17, 2010 in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. New England Patriots

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Green Bay Packers
4. St. Louis Rams
5. New York Giants
6. New Orleans Saints

In each conference, there are two divisions contested between a pair of very strong contenders. These teams might well all make the playoffs, though only half can do so as division champions. Usually, regular-season squabbles like those come down to the simple question of which team place more importance upon home-field advantage and the division crown.

In the AFC, the Jets and Ravens are trying to challenge entrenched powers in the Patriots and Steelers for supremacy. The established winners will be more likely to rest weary starters once they secure their playoff berths, and could wait to fight hard in the real showdown come postseason. For the upstarts who have not yet gotten over the hump, though, winning those titles and making a statement would be valuable.

The same goes for the NFC, where Atlanta and Philadelphia both need home-field advantage more than their rivals and want to dethrone them. The recent Super Bowl victors in the Giants and Saints might be ill-inclined to empty the tanks in an all-out effort to earn a bye, as long as Tampa Bay or Chicago falls out of the race to simplify the picture.

4. Schedule Says...

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MIAMI - NOVEMBER 14: Quarterback Vince Young #10 of the Tennessee Titans throws against the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on November 14, 2010 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Marc Serota/Getty Images)

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New York Jets
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Tennessee Titans
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Miami Dolphins

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Chicago Bears
5. Green Bay Packers
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is the most absurd scenario yet. Surely, the Colts and Patriots cannot both miss the playoffs. Yet, there are some surprisingly tough games left on each team's schedule, starting when they face each other this week. The Pats have another meeting with the Jets and a pair of tough games against co-division leaders of the NFC North, the Bears and Packers. If the Colts lose that game, it could start a tailspin as they have to play strong-finishing San Diego the following week and have yet to play division rivals Tennessee, who sit just one game back.

The Saints and Giants have similarly sticky schedules remaining before them. With the extraordinary confidence and grit that have characterized all six teams on the NFC side of this proposed bracket, neither has room for error.

3. Let's Get Real

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GREEN BAY, WI - NOVEMBER 07: Aaron Rodgers #12 of the Green Bay Packers runs for a first down against the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field on November 7, 2010 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. The Packers defeated the Cowboys 45-7. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty I

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New England Patriots
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Indianapolis Colts
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. New York Jets

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. New York Giants
6. Chicago Bears

No more games or gimmicks. The last three potential permutations are all about pragmatic prognosis.

The Chiefs are more balanced than the Chargers or Raiders, which best prepares them for the unpredictable upheaval of the season's final month and a half. As much as they may seem unusually vulnerable this season, the Big Three of the AFC (New England, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh) are still the class of the conference and should lock down the top three seeds.

The Seahawks host their only legitimate NFC West rivals, St. Louis, in Week 17. They should win that game, and (thereby) the division. They could host Chicago in the first round, which would be a rematch of a rather stunning Seattle win in Week 6 that seemed to energize the squad.

2. A Slight Adjustment...

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BALTIMORE, MD - NOVEMBER 7: Head coach John Harbaugh of the Baltimore Ravens smiles during the game against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on November 7, 2010 in Baltimore, Maryland. The Ravens defeated the Dolphins 26-10. (Photo by Larry French/

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New England Patriots
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. New York Jets
6. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. New York Giants
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Assuming the Colts really do take care of business in their division, they could easily finish 11-5. That should be good enough for a first-round bye. Indy has a team of banged-up veterans who want to play indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium as long as possible and would treasure a week off. Expect them to push hard for a top seed, and to get it.

The Packers have the talent to threaten the best of the NFC, but it looks like Atlanta has a substantial leg up on that second bye right now. The Falcons' schedule is easier from here on, and (like the Colts) they love playing at home: They are 5-0 inside the Georgia Dome this year, but only 2-2 elsewhere.

1. Projection Perfection

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PITTSBURGH - NOVEMBER 14: Wes Welker #83 of the New England Patriots runs by Ike Taylor #24 of the Pittsburgh Steelers during the game on November 14, 2010 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jared Wickerham/Getty Images)

AFC Teams, Seeds:

1. New England Patriots
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Kansas City Chiefs
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. New York Jets

NFC Teams, Seeds:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Green Bay Packers
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. New York Giants
6. Chicago Bears

Here it is, the best estimate I can give of what the playoff picture will look like by season's end. The Pats, Colts and Steelers once again reign atop the AFC, but youth is served by Atlanta's home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Those Falcons will be extraordinarily dangerous if they actually procure that advantage, and would have to be the NFC's Super Bowl favorites in that case.

While the NFC side of this bracket would be pretty predictable, with the Falcons protecting their home field advantage, the AFC is a crap shoot. One could argue that the Ravens and Jets are the best teams in the AFC; they certainly have a chance to be in the top half of the bracket after all. Some poor team, just missing on the first overall seed, will instead be relegated to a first-round matchup on the road against Pittsburgh. Good luck.