Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys: Week 11 Preview, Prediction and Analysis

Quarterback

In the battle of backup quarterbacks, former Detroit Lions starter Jon Kitna gets the nod for Dallas against Shaun Hill.

Kitna struggled early on after taking over for Tony Romo, but he rebounded nicely to throw for 327 yards and three touchdowns against the NY Giants last week. His quarterback rating of 124.1 against the Giants is better than Romo had in all but one game this year.

Hill came back from a broken arm last week and played a valiant game. Despite a complete lack of a run game, Hill was able to throw for over 300 yards against the Buffalo Bills. He would have passed for over 400 yards had his receivers not dropped many of his passes.

Edge: Lions—Hill has been intercepted only once in his last 122 pass attempts. He has really settled in nicely as the starter, and although he is not as gifted as Matthew Stafford, the Lions are in good hands.

Wide Receivers

Calvin Johnson has gone over 100 yards in three of the last four games.  In the one game that he didn’t go over 100, Nate Burleson picked up the slack with 113 yards. 

Burleson is quietly having a nice season. Since his return from injury in Week 5, he has had more than 50 yards from scrimmage in every game but one.  Against the Redskins he only managed 47 yards.

Roy Williams gets a chance to go against the team that drafted him.  Lately, Williams is known more for his outlandish predictions than his production on the field.  Since Week 5, he has only caught a total of seven passes.  He has not scored a touchdown since Week 6.

Rookie Dez Bryant is quickly becoming QB Jon Kitna’s favorite target.  In Kitna’s three starts, Bryant has 19 receptions for 274 yards and two touchdowns.

Edge: Lions—The Lions are going to throw a lot in this game, and that will give receivers opportunities to make plays. Meanwhile, Kitna seems to have forgotten his best receiver is Miles Austin.

Running Backs

The Lions will not have Kevin Smith for this game, so they will have to rely on rookie Jahvid Best to carry the load.  In the past few weeks Best has not shown anything to make that a happy proposition.  He will have to come through big-time for the Lions to win this game.

The Lions are not a good rushing team; only two squads have run the ball for fewer yards per game than the Lions, but one of those teams is the Dallas Cowboys.

Felix Jones did have a 71-yard touchdown reception last week.

Edge: Cowboys—Of all the running backs involved in this game, only Jones is averaging more than four yards per carry.

Tight Ends

Although Brandon Pettigrew continues to rack up receptions, he is still dropping too many balls.  Tony Scheffler is being used less and less.

Jason Witten is an All-Pro tight end who has been to six Pro Bowls in his career.  He already has 46 receptions so far this season.

Edge: Cowboys—The Lions are hoping that Brandon Pettigrew becomes Jason Witten.

Offensive Line

This is the unit that lost the game for Detroit last week. The Lions had eight offensive penalties, and all were on the offensive line and the tight ends.  Five false start penalties is a ridiculous number.

The Lions’ inability to run the ball against the worst rush defense in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills, is inexcusable.  It had to be a bad omen when, on the first play of the game, center Dominic Raiola got shoved four yards into the backfield by Kyle Williams.  The play ended up being a two-yard loss and set the tone for the rest of the day.

Long-time Lions writer Tom “The Killer” Kowalski wrote an in-depth review what exactly caused the Lions run game to stutter.  I founded to be a great read; unfortunately, it showed that not one person can be blamed for the lack of a run game.  This is bad because you can’t replace everybody.

Even though Tony Romo got injured, the Cowboys’ offensive line has done a decent job protecting the passer this year.  Like the Lions, however, they have struggled in run blocking. 

Edge: Cowboys—Penalties and missed assignments have plagued Detroit’s line this year, and it only seems to be getting worse.

Defensive Line

Detroit’s defensive line has pulled a disappearing act the last two weeks.  After dominating Washington’s offensive line to the tune of 6.5 sacks, this group has not done much.  Cliff Avril will miss his second straight game.  The line needs to get back to its early-season form for the Lions to turn their fortunes around.

Jay Ratliff is one of the top nose tackles in the league.  He has been hampered by a calf injury, but he returned to practice after having to sit out earlier in the week.  Even though he is a bit undersized, he has deceptive strength and will give Dominic Raiola problems inside.

Edge: Lions—The Lions D-line still gets the edge here, but they have to start producing again.

Linebackers

Julian Peterson has had a tough couple of weeks.  He committed an awful penalty against the Jets that put them in field goal range late in the game, and he badly missed on a tackle against the Bills that allowed Buffalo to score its second touchdown of the game.  If his level of play does not improve, he will be a former Lion next year.

DeMarcus Ware is on pace to have another monster season.  With eight sacks so far on the year, he is primed to boast double-digit sacks again.  This one really hurts Detroit fans, as he was taken one pick behind WR Mike Williams.  He would have looked great in Honolulu Blue.  Of course, if he had been drafted by the Lions it'd be about time for him to suffer an annual season-ending injury.

Edge: Cowboys—How many different ways can I say the Lions linebackers stink?

Secondary

Detroit’s secondary is good.  There, I said it.  I feel dirty, but I said it.  The corners, Alphonso Smith and Chris Houston, are a bit undersized, but they can cover.  This game will be a real test for them, as they give up five inches of height to every Cowboys receiver.  

Amari Spievey is getting better with increased playing time, but he still has to learn to recognize plays earlier.  This could be a long day for him.

Detroit’s corners maybe better than expected, but they are not Pro Bowlers; the guys starting for Dallas are.  Terence Newman and Mike Jenkins became the first duo of Cowboy corners to both make the Pro Bowl when they did so last year.

Newman is hampered by an ankle injury; look for the Lions to test him early.

Edge: Cowboys—One of these days I am going to give the Lions the edge in the secondary, but this is not that day.

Special Teams

Injuries have hit Detroit’s coverage units, and it is showing on the field.  The Lions got lucky against Buffalo, when a punt return for a touchdown was called back on a penalty that had nothing to do with the play itself.

On the plus side, the Lions are now No. 1 in the NFL in kickoff return average.  With a lack of a running game, every yard counts.

Dez Bryant is averaging a hefty 14.4 yards per punt return.  That average is helped by his 93-yard touchdown return.  Interestingly, Bryant has yet to call for a fair catch all year.

Edge: Cowboys—The coverage units have been killing the Lions lately.

Prediction

Two weeks ago everybody had all but buried the Cowboys, and for good reason—they were bad.  Conversely, people were picking the Lions to beat the Jets, who have the best record in the NFL.

It is amazing how much of a difference one week makes.  The Cowboys make a coaching change and blow out the Giants, while the Lions hand the Bills their first win of the year.

I refuse to let one week dictate how I see this game.  The Cowboys wanted to prove that Wade Phillips was the problem and played like it; that type of motivation only lasts so long.

The Lions will rebound, and I believe it will be on the legs of Jahvid Best.  It is not going to come in the run game, however—look for the Lions to try and hit the aggressive Cowboys with a heavy dose of screen passes.

I have picked the Lions to win the last two weeks and I was wrong. I will not be wrong three times in a row. 

The Lions put an end to their embarrassing road losing streak.

Pick: Lions 28, Cowboys 24

2010 pick record: 6-3