NFL Week 10 Picks: Is Patriots-Steelers a Preview of AFC Title Game?
NFL Week 10 Picks are here, and it's time for me to look good, look like an idiot or hopefully at least somewhere in between.
As always, there should be plenty of enjoyable contests in this week's slate of games, from some potential playoff previews to monumental upsets in the making.
In Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football, the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers will meet in a monster matchup that many football fans believe could be a preview of the AFC Championship.
Of course a boatload of fans jumped off the Patriots bandwagon after they were defeated soundly by the Cleveland Browns last week, so it'll be interesting to see how New England responds.
The Patriots will have to make the dreaded trip to Heinz Field to battle James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and the Steelers' No. 1 ranked scoring and rushing defense.
So who will win this epic showdown between two of the league's best teams?
Will Tom Brady and the Patriots rebound or will Ben Roethlisberger lead his team to a key victory?
Let's find out as we take a look at all 14 games from what is sure to be a wild weekend of NFL action.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, Thursday, 8:20 P.M. EST, NFL Network
1 of 14
The Lowdown: The Falcons and the Ravens are at the top of their respective conferences following big victories in Week 9, but both teams need this W to stay on pace with the other teams in their divisions.
Baltimore is almost guaranteed to be in a dogfight with Pittsburgh all season in the AFC North while Atlanta has Tampa Bay and New Orleans to deal with in a crowded NFC South.
Why Baltimore Will Win: Baltimore's offensive is loaded with weapons like Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin, but it's Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and that old school Ravens defense that has carried the team recently.
Lewis' bunch is ranked ninth in total yards and passing yards allowed as well as sixth in points allowed, which should pose problems for that Falcons offense..
Why Atlanta Will Win: The Falcons have great balance on offense with Matt Ryan throwing to Roddy White and Michael Turner lining up in the backfield to alleviate the pressure.
Atlanta's offense has averaged 24.5 points per game, which helps make up for a defense that has been torched by Kevin Kolb and Carson Palmer in recent weeks.
Who's the Pick: Ravens 27, Falcons 24. This one could go either way because Atlanta is incredibly tough at home, but I see Joe Flacco pulling out a win in the final minutes of the game to stun the crowd.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills, 1:00 P.M. EST, FOX
2 of 14
The Lowdown: The Detroit Lions are probably out of playoff contention, but they've played well enough at times to seem like a legitimate threat in the NFC North. This matchup gives them a chance to prove they can come out on top in games that they're supposed to win.
For the Buffalo Bills, their season is done. It's about nothing more than pride and developing the team's younger players at this point.
Why Detroit Will Win: Matthew Stafford won't play in this game, but the Lions have proved they can put up a ton of points with Shaun Hill behind center.
And there's nothing that makes me believe that the Bills will have any shot to stop Calvin Johnson from having a big day on Sunday.
Why Buffalo Will Win: Buffalo may be winless, but unlike the Dallas Cowboys, at least the Bills have a team full of players who make an effort to show up on Sundays.
They've been competitive each game week in and week out, and they have the advantage of playing at home against the Lions.
Who's the Pick: Bills 30, Lions 23. I'm going with the Bills pulling the upset because they've been so close to getting that first win in recent weeks against tougher competition.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 1:00 P.M. EST, FOX
3 of 14
The Lowdown: Both the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears are trailing the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North, so this is an opportunity to cut into the Packers' lead in that divisional race.
Plus, every game from here on out is a must win for the Vikings if they want to bounce back from that horrific start.
Why Minnesota Will Win: Have you watched Adrian Peterson play lately? Even when he gets limited touches, he looks like a freight bulldozing his way through opposing defenses.
I know that Brett Favre went crazy throwing the ball against Arizona last week, but it'll be Peterson that leads the Vikings to victory in Week 10.
Why Chicago Will Win: The Vikings obviously can run the ball well, but what the Bears do best is keep the opposing running back in check.
Chicago ranks third in rushing yards allowed and has the potential to limit Peterson all game, which could bode well for Chicago's chances.
Who's the Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 16. There's too much on the line for Favre not to come through in the clutch, so he'll play well enough to get a solid victory on the road.
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New York Jets at Cleveland Browns, 1:00 P.M. EST, CBS
4 of 14
The Lowdown: For the New York Jets, it's Super Bowl or bust. That team absolutely cannot afford to lose games like this, if for no other reason then to avoid the media backlash that comes along with it.
As for the Cleveland Browns, they continue to shock the world, but I still think they're doing nothing more than playing spoiler the rest of the way.
Why New York Will Win: The Jets have all kinds of talent on the defensive side of the ball that should limit what Colt McCoy and the Browns offense can do.
And as we saw with New York earlier in the season, the Jets have the potential to explode on offense, whether it's from LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene running the ball or Mark Sanchez, Santonio Holmes and the passing game.
Why Cleveland Will Win: Peyton Hillis is a man-child. Seriously, I can't explain how much I love watching Hillis make that Brady Quinn trade looking like one of the most lopsided swaps in recent NFL history.
Anyway, I also like the fact that Cleveland has beaten the Saints and the Patriots by a combined 34 points this season. That's incredibly impressive, especially for a team starting an undersized rookie quarterback.
Who's the Pick: Jets 24, Browns 16. I'm not seeing a third monster upset from the Browns in three straight games, but I do think this one will be highly competitive.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts, 1:00 P.M. EST, CBS
5 of 14
The Lowdown: The Cincinnati Bengals aren't winning the AFC North at this point. I'm confident enough with that prediction that I'll personally fly a Bengals fan to the team's first playoff game if it does happen.
But the Indianapolis Colts have a lot on the line, needing to keep pace with the Tennessee Titans and stay ahead of the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans a log-jammed AFC South.
Why Cincinnati Will Win: Well, the Bengals may have just two wins and five consecutive losses, but they lost those five games by 27 points total.
They're always in the game even though that 2-6 record might indicate otherwise, and they've got Terrell Owens playing like its 2002.
Why Indianapolis Will Win: It's the Colts, and they have a certain guy named Peyton Manning lining up behind center.
Manning will keep Indianapolis in just about every game, and they have the added advantage of playing at home in Lucas Oil Stadium.
Who's the Pick: Colts 31, Bengals 20. Indianapolis isn't losing two in a row when they can't afford another loss in a tight divisional race.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1:00 P.M. EST, CBS
6 of 14
The Lowdown: These two teams play in one of the most competitive divisions in football, the AFC South, and every game is incredibly crucial at this point in the season.
By all standards these are probably the two weakest teams in the division, so they have to win because they can't afford to drop another game behind elite teams like Tennessee and Indianapolis.
Why Houston Will Win: Jacksonville's defense is far from great to put it mildly, and Houston is absolutely loaded with offensive weapons like Arian Foster and Andre Johnson.
I don't see the Jaguars having any real shot at containing both of those guys.
Why Jacksonville Will Win: David Garrard went off two weeks. I know, I know, it came against a terrible Dallas Cowboys team.
But it wouldn't be a big shock to see the Jaguars' offense throw the ball all over the place on Houston's horrific secondary.
Who's the Pick: Texans 34, Jaguars 21. Houston's offense is just too good, and Jacksonville's defense ranks 30th in points allowed.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins, 1:00 P.M. EST, CBS
7 of 14
The Lowdown: Tennessee's been a hard team to figure out so far this year, so this is a good chance to prove they can be a consistent winner and stay on par with the Colts in the division.
In Miami's case, I don't see them overtaking the Jets or Patriots in the AFC East, but at 4-4 there's always that possibility.
Why Tennessee Will Win: Randy Moss will be in uniform for the Titans for the first time. Moss, Chris Johnson and Vince Young provide a heck of a trio on offense.
And the Titans already have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, which is certainly something to be scared about if you're the Dolphins.
Why Miami Will Win: The Dolphins have a pretty solid defense that has the potential to stifle any opponent on any given day.
And even though Miami has struggled on offense quite a bit, the team does have some very good weapons like Brandon Marshall with the potential for a breakout game.
The Dolphins will also get one of the most accurate passers in NFL history, Chad Pennington, back into the starting lineup this week, which could provide a spark for an offense that has relied on Dan Carpenter as its main scoring threat.
Who's the Pick: Titans 28, Miami 17. Channing Crowder is probably still rambling on and on right now, so I think the Dolphins are too distracted to get the win when they've stumbled to a winless record at home so far.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:00 P.M. EST, FOX
8 of 14
The Lowdown: There's not much on the line for the Carolina Panthers other than John Fox's job security--which might have already been thrown out the window--and playing for respect.
As for Tampa Bay, they've got New Orleans and Atlanta breathing down their necks so they have to win against the lowly Panthers to stay afloat in the division.
Why Carolina Will Win: Carolina has some injuries at the running back position, but the Buccaneers give up an average of 147 yards on the ground, so it might not matter who's lining up in the backfield.
Why Tampa Bay Will Win: Well, aside from the fact that they're simply the better team, I really like the development of rookie quarterback Josh Freeman so far this season.
He and wide receiver Mike Williams are quickly forming a potent duo that could be around in Tampa Bay for years to come.
Who's the Pick: Bucs 24, Panthers 10. The Panthers announced that they will start rookie Jimmy Clausen at quarterback. That offense has done next to nothing with Clausen at the helm.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, 4:05 P.M. EST, CBS
9 of 14
The Lowdown: It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs could be in an AFC West dogfight with the Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers the rest of the way, so this is one of those games that they can't afford to lose if they want to be around come playoff time.
As for Denver, I've lost all faith in the Broncos being relevant since their last two games, both of which were pretty pathetic showings in all aspects of the game.
Why Kansas City Will Win: Matt Cassel may not rack up a ton of yards through the air, but he's played surprisingly well all season.
And he's got a great set of running backs in Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles that can control the clock and keep Kyle Orton and company on the sidelines.
Why Denver Will Win: Kansas City's defense gives up a lot of yards through the air--231 per game in fact--and we all know that the new breed Broncos have lived and died by the pass in 2010.
They're certainly not going to do much running, but even when they do, it'll be tough to come by many yards against the Chiefs' very good run defense.
Who's the Pick: Chiefs 31, Broncos 21. The Chiefs should rebound from a close loss to the Raiders with a double-digit victory over the struggling Broncos.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 P.M. EST, FOX
10 of 14
The Lowdown: I don't think these teams would realistically have any shot at making the playoffs in any other division, but it's the abysmal NFC West so they're still alive.
And just a word of advice for the Seahawks, it might be a nice time to actually show up to a game after two straight terrible performances.
Why Seattle Will Win: Have you seen the Cardinals play at all this season? They're just not very good in any facet of the game on offense or defense and they lack any type of consistency at the quarterback position.
Why Arizona Will Win: They've hung tough the past two weeks against superior competition, losing both games by a combined six points.
They shouldn't have that much trouble against a team like Seattle that also struggles on both sides of the ball.
Who's the Pick: Cardinals 28, Seahawks 17. Seattle has gotten dismantled the past two weeks, and I think Arizona will avenge the loss against Seattle from a few weeks ago.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants, 4:15 P.M. EST, FOX
11 of 14
The Lowdown: You might as well stick a fork in Dallas because they're done. The Cowboys are playing only so that they don't finish with the league's worst record, which is pretty hard to believe considering the talent on that team.
But the New York Giants are a whole different story. They look like the best team in the NFC, and they'll have to win games like this to join the elite teams in this league.
Why Dallas Will Win: Wade Phillips is gone and Jason Garrett is in, but I'm still not sure what we'll get out of the Cowboys.
Maybe Garrett can motivate his team to play spoiler against a division rival.
Why New York Will Win: The Giants have the league's No. 1 total defense and No. 4 total offense.
They're not going to play down to the level of a Cowboys team that showed absolute no heart in a pitiful effort this past Sunday.
Who's the Pick: Giants 38, Cowboys 13. The Cowboys have no identity, they're breaking in a new coach and the Giants are coming off a huge win that should give them a lot of momentum moving forward.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers, 4:15 P.M. EST, FOX
12 of 14
The Lowdown: The St. Louis Rams have surprised everyone so far this season and are looking to stay atop the NFC West against the San Francisco 49ers, who have won two of three games after a bewildering 0-5 start and are hoping to turn their season around.
Why St. Louis Will Win: Rams rookie quarterback Sam Bradford looks well on his way to super-stardom in the NFL, and the team's defense has been surprisingly good all season.
St. Louis only gives up 17.6 points per game and ranks eighth in rushing yards allowed.
Why San Francisco Will Win: The bottom line is that San Francisco has to win this game to have any chance of staying alive in the playoff hunt. Troy Smith might be the guy that can rejuvenate the team and lead them to a couple of wins in the second half.
I'm not sure the team has the leadership--from the coaches or on the field--to win right now, but there's a slim chance Smith could be that guy.
Who's the Pick: Rams 27, 49ers 14. I can't really get too excited about San Francisco's recent wins considering they're sandwiched around a loss to Carolina.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:20 P.M. EST, NBC
13 of 14
The Lowdown: This is the game of the week right here (although Baltimore-Atlanta is right up there).
It features two of the best teams in football--let's forget about New England's pitiful showing last week and look at the bigger picture--in a battle to determine who's at the top of the AFC.
An AFC Championship preview? Could be.
Why New England Will Win: Nothing about the New England Patriots really jumps out at you, and they're mediocre at best in most facets of the game.
Despite being ranked 20th in total offense and 29th in total defense, the Patriots continue to win football games.
But they do have Tom Brady behind center, the league's No. 2 scoring offense and they're playing against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that gives up 240 yards per game through the air.
Why Pittsburgh Will Win: You all know how the Steelers have won just about every football game during the 2010 season. That Pittsburgh defense leads the league in scoring and rushing yards allowed.
And Pittsburgh's offense could have a field day against a bad New England defense.
Who's the Pick: Steelers 23, Patriots 17. This one could come down to one play falling a certain way, but I like the Steelers because the game is at Heinz Field.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins, Monday, 8:30 P.M. EST, ESPN
14 of 14
The Lowdown: This is obviously a huge NFC East showdown with both teams entering the game at .500 or better, but the Philadelphia Eagles are looking to make a bigger mark and cement their status as one of the best teams in the NFC.
As for the Redskins, this is an opportunity to move on from the Rex Grossman-Mike Shanahan-Donovan McNabb debacle that I still can't believe actually took place.
Why Eagles Will Win: Michael Vick has made Eagles fans forget about McNabb's departure.
He's finally dumped that run first-mentality and is looking to be a pass-first quarterback, but he still has that running ability that makes opposing defenses have to game-plan for him.
And he's going against an atrocious Redskins defense that is ranked second to last in passing yards allowed and total defense.
Why Redskins Will Win: I honestly don't see much of anything that I like about the Redskins.
But I do look for a fired-up McNabb to come out clicking on all cylinders and play a good game after being pulled in favor of Grossman a couple of weeks ago.
Who's the Pick: Eagles 34, Redskins 23. Too much Vick, too much LeSean McCoy, too much DeSean Jackson, too much offense for Philadelphia. The Eagles cruise to a victory.
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