NFL Power Rankings: Top 10 NFL Coaches Who Are On The Hot Seat
We are at the approximate midpoint of the season in the NFL. There have been many surprises thus far, some good and some bad.
When a professional football team has high expectations and is not meeting those expectations, heads will roll. Owners and General Managers cannot fire all of the players, so the person to go is invariably the head coach.
There are ten head coaches currently employed in the NFL that I consider on the hot seat. Their jobs are in jeopardy, unless the wins start coming from their respective teams.
It's amazing how quickly fortunes can change in the NFL. Bill Walsh is arguably the greatest head football coach in the modern era. Even he started out poorly, going 2-14 and 6-10 in his first two seasons with the 49ers. Back in 1980, his second year with the 49ers, there were even calls for his job.
Walsh was given another year and his team, the San Francisco 49ers, came out of nowhere to win the Super Bowl that season. Thus began the glory days of the 49ers.
The position and job security of an NFL head coach can change from week to week, depending on the outcome of their games. Let's take a look at our list, as it stands today.
10) Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati Bengals
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Marvin Lewis is in his eighth season at the helm of the Cincinnati Bengals. He led the Bengals to the playoffs in 2005 and 2009. In each of those years, the Bengals were knocked out in their first game.
Lewis is a highly respected coach around the NFL. However, the overall results are lacking. Lewis currently has a career record of 58-60, plus those two playoff losses.
This year, the Bengals have struggled to a 2-5 record. Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens seem to be more interested in their TV show and have not generated the explosive offense the Bengals hoped for when they paired the two.
Quarterback Carson Palmer is having a poor year and the Bengals are suffering because of it.
The Bengals are three games behind both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, so the playoffs are a long shot.
I think Marvin Lewis has earned some goodwill in Cincinnati and he will likely retain his job, unless the Bengals have a complete collapse. My gut feel is that the chair is getting hotter, but Lewis will probably get a pass for one bad year.
9) Norv Turner, San Diego Chargers
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I have always felt Norv Turner was a better offensive coordinator than a head coach. He has a great offensive mind and is an excellent X's and O's kind of guy.
The question that has always dogged Turner is whether he has the ability to be a strong leader of men. Can he get his players to buy in and will they run "through the wall" for him?
Norv Turner has been a head coach for three teams in the NFL. He coached the Washington Redskins from 1994-2000, leading them to a 49-59-1 record.
His second stopover was with the Oakland Raiders, where he went 9-23 in 2004-2005.
Turner was the offensive coordinator in San Francisco when the Chargers called. He bolted the 49ers just before the 2007 season to become the head coach in San Diego.
Although Turner has had success in San Diego, he has also been blessed with excellent talent. Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates and Darren Sproles all played under Turner.
The Chargers have made the playoffs in each of San Diego's first three years. The Chargers got all the way to the AFC Championship game in 2007, only to lose to the Patriots. In 2008 and 2009, the Chargers lost in the AFC Divisional game, one step before the AFC title game.
The Chargers have had the talent to do better and the window of opportunity seems to be slipping away. LaDainian Tomlinson has moved on to the Jets and the Charger defense has also not played well enough to win consistently.
San Diego currently stands at 3-5, two and a half games behind the Chiefs. It's not too late for the Chargers to turn it around and make the playoffs, but failing to do so may be the end of Norv Turner in San Diego.
The Chargers have underachieved and lost at the most inopportune times, even with great talent. This all goes back to coaching and being a strong leader. The bottom line is Turner has come up short in the big games.
If San Diego misses the playoffs, the heat will be on Norv Turner. He probably gets one more year, but it's possible that the Chargers will move in a different direction.
8) Tom Cable, Oakland Raiders
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Do I think Tom Cable has done a good job with the Oakland Raiders this season?
My answer, thus far, is a strong yes. However, anytime you work for Al Davis, your job may be in jeopardy on a whim. Cable is in his third season with Oakland and has compiled an overall record of 13-23.
Tom Cable has the Raiders at 4-4, only one and a half games behind division leading Kansas City. In addition, the Raiders play the Chiefs this Sunday, so an Oakland victory pulls them to within one half game of their division rival.
This is all working in favor of Tom Cable, however, there are three possible negatives working against his long term tenure in Oakland.
First off, if the Raiders lose to the Chiefs, then struggle in their next games against Pittsburgh, Miami and San Diego, they could quickly fall out of the division race. This will increase the scrutiny on Tom Cable.
Secondly, Cable embarrassed the organization when he was involved in an alleged assault on one of his assistant coaches, Randy Hanson. An alleged spy for Al Davis, Hanson was verbally and physically abused by Cable last year. Settlement packages ultimately swept this under the rug, but there is no denying that Al Davis and the Raiders were publicly shamed.
In addition, there were rumors earlier in the season that Al Davis was planning to fire Tom Cable if he did not beat San Diego in week five. The Raiders won and Cable's job was safe for the time being.
With Raider owner Al Davis now at age 81, patience is not something we can expect from him. The hot seat under Tom Cable is on simmer, but it will only take a few losses for it to get red hot again.
So far in 2010, Tom Cable has kept the flames off of him for the most part. However, he will need to keep winning, because Al Davis always has the matches and lighter fluid nearby.
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7) Brad Childress, Minnesota Vikings
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When you're a head coach in the NFL, but your players don't necessarily believe you're running the team, that's a recipe for your demise. If you're winning, players will look past this issue, but if you're losing, players will stop listening.
The Vikings have bent over backwards to coddle and massage the ego of Brett Favre. It's no wonder Brett Favre believes he is running the Vikings, not Brad Childress. Brett Favre had two broken bones in his ankle and should not have been on the field in Minnesota's last game against the Patriots, a 28-18 loss,
Favre stated that he wanted to be out there to help his team win, but there are serious doubts that was the main reason he wanted to play. Favre currently owns the consecutive game streak in the NFL at 292 games. His decision to start was as much about that, as it was about helping the Vikings win.
Childress should have made the decision to start Tavaris Jackson, as Favre was unable to play effectively. In fact, Favre has been very inconsistent all season long. By starting Favre, Childress gave further credence to the idea that Favre, not Childress, runs this team.
This is Brad Childress' fifth season as head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. Prior to this year, Childress led the Vikings to a 36-27 record. In the past two seasons, the Vikings won the NFC North division. In 2009, Childress led the Vikings to the NFC Championship game, losing to the eventual Super Bowl winning Saints.
2010 was supposed to be another run to the playoffs for Minnesota. How quickly things change. At this point in the season, at 2-5, the playoffs are unlikely and the Vikings are in major trouble.
The distractions with Favre are also accentuated with the alleged scandal involving Jenn Sterger. The alleged incidents occurred while Favre was with the Jets, but since it's coming out now, it's affecting the Vikings the most.
The Vikings also looked completely without direction when they acquired Randy Moss from New England, for a 3rd round draft pick. Following the game against his former team, Moss publicly professed his love for the Patriots and chastised the Vikings for not listening more to his game planning ideas. Moss was released after spending less than a month with Vikings and they had given away a valuable draft pick.
Brad Childress acknowledged that the Moss acquisition was a stupid decision. This, along with the Brett Favre distractions, have caused the Vikings to look like a team in disarray.
Brad Childress has not handled these distractions well and has also undermined his own leadership by throwing Favre under the bus, in the media. This will result in a lack of trust among his players and once that's gone, your time as the head coach is going to be short.
The flames are burning hot under the seat of Brad Childress.
6) Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills
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The Buffalo Bills fired coach Dick Jauron following the 2009 season and replaced him with Chan Gailey. Under Jauron, the Bills finished last season with a 6-10 record.
During the search process, the Bills went after several big name coaches, such as Bill Cowher and Mike Shanahan. Even Minnesota defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier was a bigger fan favorite and sexier name than Chan Gailey. The hiring of Chan Gailey was very unpopular among the fan base of the Bills.
The hope was that Chan Gailey, who has been a football coach or administrator since 1976, would come in and use his vast experience to push the Bills to the playoffs. The veteran football lifer has been a successful coach in college and had a two year stint in as an NFL head coach in Dallas, where he went 18-14.
Gailey has a wealth of experience as an offensive coach and the hope in Buffalo was that Gailey would ignite a weak Bills offense. The most important decision he will make is at quarterback. Buffalo and Gailey must decide if Ryan Fitzpatrick is their long term answer to run the Buffalo offense.
Being that this is his first year at the helm, I am inclined to think GM Buddy Nix and owner Ralph Wilson will give Gailey more time.
On the flip side, the Bills are the only winless team in the NFL, at 0-7. Owner Ralph Wilson, at age 92, has no desire to implement a five year rebuilding plan. He wants to win now. At age 92, who can blame him.
The Bills got rid of Dick Jauron, following a 6-10 season, so there is the possibility that they will also fire Chan Gailey. Judging by the lack of interest Buffalo received in their prior search, they may also feel that Gailey is the best option that they could get to come to Buffalo.
Nevertheless, if the Bills finish their season with somewhere between zero and three victories, the hot seat under Chan Gailey could burn him up. Ralph Wilson isn't getting any younger, you know.
5) Eric Mangini, Cleveland Browns
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Eric Mangini led the Cleveland Browns to a 5-11 season in 2009, his first year with the club. The 2010 season is off to an eerily similar start, as the Browns currently stand at 2-5.
What makes matters worse is how the Browns are playing. The concept of offense has largely eluded the Browns, as they have the second lowest scoring average per game in the NFL. Only the woeful Carolina Panthers are worse. This lack of offense often makes for boring football.
I believe that Mangini, who is only 39 years old, has the energy and enthusiasm to ultimately turn the Browns into a contending team. The problem currently is a lack of talent on the roster.
Prior to joining the Browns, Mangini served as the head coach for three seasons, 2006-2008, in New York, with the Jets. He made the playoffs in his first year, but could not sustain that momentum. After the first year, when the Jets went 10-6, they fell to 4-12, then 9-7 in Mangini's final year.
Mangini also coached as an assistant under Bill Belichick for six seasons in New England, from 2000-2005.
Mangini has spent the bulk of his career on the defensive side of the football. The main problem with Cleveland this season is the lack of offensive firepower. New team President, Mike Holmgren, who took over the Browns in late 2009, retained Mangini and his staff.
It cannot be pleasing to Mike Holmgren, a noted offensive football mind, to watch his team flounder like they have. If the Browns continue on their path to another losing season, it would not surprise me if Mike Holmgren made the decision to let Mangini go.
Holmgren may want to try his hand at coaching again, or he may want to bring in more of an offensive guy that he hand picks for the job. With his wealth of experience, Holmgren knows many qualified coaches who specialize on the offensive end and may decide to bring one of them in.
My bet is that Cleveland will continue on their mediocre path and Holmgren will indeed replace Eric Mangini. I believe the only thing that can save Mangini's job is if the Browns can somehow reach the .500 mark at 8-8. That would entail Cleveland going 6-3 over the remainder of the year, which I don't think is going to happen.
The hot seat is just about to ignite and Eric Mangini's job will go up in flames.
4) Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos
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Josh McDaniels has had a roller coaster of a time in his year and a half in Denver. At only 34 years old, McDaniels is the second youngest head coach in the NFL, behind only Raheem Morris in Tampa Bay.
Denver finished 2009 with a record of 8-8, good for second in the AFC West. There was a lot of promise and anticipation heading into 2010. However, things just have not panned out for the Broncos.
There have been several coaching blunders made by Josh McDaniels. His tenure has been filled with way too much drama and coaching errors.
McDaniels was enamored with then Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel. Since Tom Brady was coming back from his injury, the Patriots were willing to let Cassel go.
McDaniels made several overtures to Cassel and even proclaimed that Cassel was all set to join the Broncos. When Cassel ultimately went to Kansas City, all McDaniels had done was upset his incumbent quarterback, Jay Cutler.
Cutler would have nothing to do with McDaniels after this series of incidents and was traded to Chicago for Kyle Orton. McDaniels actually lucked out on this one, as Orton has played better than Cutler, and Denver also received three high draft picks, including two first rounders.
Another overly impetuous move by McDaniels involved the drafting of quarterback Tim Tebow, in the first round of the 2010 draft. The Broncos traded their 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks to Baltimore for the 25th selection in round one. That was a huge amount to give up for a guy who most probably would have been there when the Broncos picked in the second round anyway.
Tim Tebow is a great leader, tough as they come and also a good runner, as a quarterback. However, he is still refining his passing fundamentals. Mechanically, Tebow is learning how to throw the football properly. This is not someone you needed to spend a number one draft pick on.
By picking Tebow so early and giving away three high draft picks, Josh McDaniels is now figuratively joined at the hip with Tebow. If Tim Tebow fails, Josh McDaniels will likely fail, also.
Another personnel fiasco occurred with star receiver Brandon Marshall. Marshall feuded with McDaniels on several occasions, which resulted in Marshall being benched, suspended, fined and ultimately traded to Miami for two second round draft selections.
Marshall has caught over 100 passes in three consecutive years. This accomplishment has only been achieved by four others in the history of the NFL. How the relationship between Josh McDaniels and Brandon Marshall became so fractured was an example of two big stubborn ego's colliding and not seeing the big picture of what was best for the team.
Another mistake by McDaniels was not as egregious as the Cassel, Tebow or Marshall fiasco's. It simply cost the Broncos a game last Sunday against a struggling 49er team. The Broncos flew to London and arrived on Friday, only two days before their game against the 49ers.
The 49ers, on the other hand, flew to London immediately following their game in Carolina. They acclimated to the time change and were able to come from behind to defeat the Broncos.
I believe the long travel, just a couple days prior to the game did not give the Broncos the best chance to win. The players looked tired and jet lagged. This loss dropped Denver to 2-5. A 3-4 record would have looked much better in the AFC West, which is up for grabs.
Josh McDaniels' head coaching tenure in Denver has been filled with mistakes, drama and way too many contentious issues. The season is falling apart and McDaniels often seems overwhelmed.
With the loss to the 49ers, the fire is burning under the hot seat of Josh McDaniels.
3) John Fox, Carolina Panthers
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In his ninth season with the Carolina Panthers, John Fox is the longest tenured head coach with the same team on our list. Fox is a well respected head coach, a strong leader and has had his share of success.
Under Fox, the Panthers reached the playoffs three times and the Super Bowl once, in 2003. His overall record currently stands at 77-66, which includes a 5-3 playoff record.
Fox has coached in both the college and pro ranks for over 30 years. Outside of his head coaching stint with Carolina, Fox's experience is on the defensive side of the football.
The 2010 Carolina Panthers are a bad team. This is mainly due to a roster of personnel not up to NFL standards. The Panthers currently stand at 1-6, which gnaws at John Fox immensely.
While the Panther management has not publicly pressured Fox, there is a growing sentiment that he will not be back in 2011. Fox's contract expires at the end of this season and Carolina management has not had substantive discussions with Fox or his agent on an extension. It appears they may just let time run its course and move on in a different direction.
John Fox also may elect to step down on his own. Nine years is a long time to coach in one location and Fox may want to take some time off to recharge his batteries or he may want to try another challenge.
Either way, I do not believe John Fox will be back in Carolina as the head coach in 2011.
Unlike many of the other coaching situations mentioned in this report, there is not the cloud of animosity or divisiveness hanging over John Fox and Carolina. Fox has always conducted himself with class and professionalism. Sometimes, there just comes a time when it's best to move on.
2) Mike Singletary, San Francisco 49ers
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Mike Singletary may soon be waving good bye to the San Francisco 49ers. Or, better put, the 49ers may send him packing.
I am a big fan of what Mike Singletary brings to the table, which is intensity, leadership and staunch dedication to his goals. Singletary is a leader of men and is completely focused on winning football games.
However, as an unproven head coach, it was also very important for Singletary to surround himself with strong assistant coaches, especially on the offensive side of the football. He has failed to do this and the 49ers average barely over 17 points per game. Only Carolina is worse in the NFC.
Some of Singletary's greatest strengths have also been his biggest weaknesses. He is so single minded of focus that he has been reluctant to adjust to the modern day athlete and current style of play.
Singletary has longed for the 49ers to play a smash mouth style of football, utilizing a power rushing attack and tough defense to win games. The quarterbacks are often hand cuffed and told not to lose the game. The play calling is, therefore, too conservative and Singletary is unwilling to stray too far from his mantra.
Jimmy Raye was the 49ers' fourth or fifth choice to be the offensive coordinator. Unfortunately, the other candidates turned the job down or took positions with other teams, so the Niners were compelled to go with Jimmy Raye.
With the Niner offense struggling, Raye was fired, less than 24 hours after Singletary proclaimed him the offensive coordinator for the rest of the season. I believe team president Jed York stepped in and basically made that decision for Singletary.
Singletary has had several issues with his personnel in 2010, also. Safety Michael Lewis quit the team when he was replaced in the starting lineup by Taylor Mays. Backup running back Glen Coffee, a third round draft pick in 2009, unexpectedly retired after only one season, stating he no longer had the desire to play football.
In addition, former round one draft pick Kentwan Balmer became such a distraction in the preseason that the 49ers shipped him up to Seattle. You cannot afford to whiff on important draft picks like Alex Smith, Balmer and Coffee.
Singletary also has stood behind Alex Smith and his coaching future is tied to Smith's lack of success. The trade of backup Shawn Hill and subsequent signing of David Carr was a move designed to remove any pressure off the back of Alex Smith. Shawn Hill had a winning record as a starting quarterback and would be able to step in for Smith when he struggled or now that he is injured.
David Carr was a huge waste of money. It was painfully apparent to everyone that he was not the answer, once Alex Smith was injured.
When you're winning, the motivational speeches are well received. However, if you're losing on a regular basis, as the 49ers are, players ultimately stop listening to those fire and brimstone motivational speeches.
The 49ers often play to the caliber of their opponent, just good enough to lose. The team has suffered from critical mistakes across the board and undisciplined play. Too many careless penalties, defensive backs gambling and getting beat and turnovers have killed the 49ers' chances. Instead of 2-6, they could easily be 5-3 right now.
The biggest issue is that of expectations. Heading into the 2010 campaign, following an 8-8 season in 2009, the 49ers were touted as an up and coming team, poised to win the NFC West. The Niners started poorly and did not get a win in their first five games. The coaching staff was unable to right the ship quickly enough and they now face a stiff uphill climb.
Mike Singletary has often appeared over matched. His inability to make the right adjustments on a timely basis has put the 49ers in this deep hole. Even simple things like not shaking the hand of an opposing coach after a loss make Singletary look like a man that is in over his head.
The NFC West is perhaps the weakest division in the NFL and the 49ers actually still have a chance, if they can start playing good football. This is a talented group of players, but the team has badly underachieved right from the start.
The Niners are only two and a half games out of first place in their division. They play five more games against division opponents, so there is still a very small glimmer of hope. My gut feel is that the 49ers will not be able to get it done and changes will be made.
When expectations are soaring, then shot down so dramatically, there will be scapegoats. The love seat shared by Mike Singletary and Alex Smith is already ablaze and the fire extinguisher is just out of reach.
I do not believe that Mike Singletary or Alex Smith will be back with the 49ers in 2011.
1) Wade Phillips, Dallas Cowboys
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Let me start by saying I have never been impressed by Wade Phillips as an NFL head coach. He has coached some good teams with a lot of talent and in my opinion, underachieved.
Phillips has coached five different teams and has an impressive career regular season record of 82-60. It is in the playoffs where Phillips has faltered. His teams hold a 1-5 record in playoff competition.
The Dallas Cowboys went 11-5 in 2009, but lost in round two of the playoffs to the Vikings. With much of the same cast returning to Dallas, the team was expected to contend for the title again in 2010.
Again, when high expectations are crushed, changes will occur. The Cowboys are currently last in the NFC East with an abysmal 1-6 record.
The Dallas Cowboys have shown a frightening lack of leadership both on the field and from the coaching staff. In their last defeat, a 35-17 debacle at home against a mediocre Jacksonville team, the Cowboys simply quit playing. If your team quits, it shows a lack of character and lack of leadership. This is what happened last Sunday.
Jerry Jones recently stated that Wade Phillips' job was safe through the end of the year. If that isn't the kiss of death, the nothing is. Jones is a mercurial owner and will not hesitate to make changes he deems necessary.
Wade Phillips may last the season, but only because Jones will want a clean, fresh start for the next head coach in 2011. On the other hand, if the Cowboys have any more embarrassing losses, where it appears the team gave up, Jones may reconsider and get rid of Phillips right away.
The hot seat under Wade Phillips is completely on fire and about to collapse at any moment.
Who Goes And Who Stays?
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I have listed ten head coaches who are top candidates to be relieved of their duties before next season. My over / under on this list is 7.5. In other words, my odds are that 7.5 of these coaches will not be with their teams at the beginning of the 2011 season.
There are several strong candidates who could be in line for one of these jobs. Jon Gruden, Bill Cowher, Herman Edwards, Leslie Frazier, Kyle Shanahan, Jim Harbaugh and Brian Billick are available, just to name a few.
So, would you take the over or under 7.5 on my list of coaches to be replaced?
My bet is OVER 7.5. I think the hot seat will burn to ashes on eight out of these ten head coaches. Get the fork, they're done.
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