2011 NFL Mock Draft: Is Andrew Luck No. 1, How Far Did Jake Locker Fall?
The 2011 NFL Mock Draft mania continues. The days are getting shorter and the season is moving along. Draft order is starting to sort itself out and the college players are making their cases.
Some of those cases are strong ones and that's what we're here to look at, as we go through the potential first-round picks.
Will Andrew Luck go No. 1?
What if the Bills have a late-season surge and the Carolina Panthers end up with the No. 1 pick? A lot of variables in play here, but we'll do our best to sort it all out.
Draft order is based mainly on this week's power rankings and partially on some prognostication about where the final draft order will shake out.
I hear the commissioner coming to the podium . . .
32. New York Giants, Ras-I-Dowling, CB Virginia
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Why Dowling Goes Here: The Giants have a great pass defense, but Dowling is a superior athlete who is physical off the line and doesn't get burned downfield. In a quarterback-driven league, you don't pass a guy like this up.
How Dowling Fits In: Dowling has "Darrelle Revis" potential, and the Giants can't pass that up at this draft slot.
What Changed From Last Week: Bruce Carter was the pick, but draft-order change prompted a re-evaluation.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Pouncey, OG Florida
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Why Pouncey Goes Here: With Tim Tebow gone, Mike isn't getting the attention he and his brother got last year and he slips off the radar down to the bottom of the first round.
How Pouncey Fits: The Steelers still are very thin on the offensive line. By drafting both Pounceys, they get two players accustomed to playing together and who are capable of playing multiple positions.
What Changed From Last Week: Nothing. The Steelers have an offensive line your grandmother could get through. Maurkice Pouncey is the best player on that line and bringing in his brother makes perfect sense.
30. Tennessee Titans, Bruce Carter, OLB NC
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Why Carter Goes Here: Carter fills a position of need for Tennessee.
How Carter Fits In: Carter gives the Titans more depth on their line and he becomes another potential playmaker on a very good team.
What Changed From Last Week: Von Miller moves up the draft board, so the Titans have to take the next best available.
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29. Atlanta Falcons, Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
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Why Fairley Goes Here: You're getting to the bottom of the first round, and it becomes a toss up on who really is talented and who is a reach. Fairley is talented.
How Fairley Fits In: Fairley is a sack machine who could make the Falcon's pass rush something to be very afraid of.
What Changed From Last Week: Anthony Costanzo moved up the board and the Falcons go for best player available.
28. New England Patriots, Nate Solder, OT Colorado
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Why Solder Goes Here: New England needs offensive linemen, and with two picks in the first round, you have to believe one of them will be a offensive tackle.
How Solder Fits In: Tom Brady is the franchise quarterback and Belichick has a keen interest in keeping Brady from being blindsided for the next few years.
What Changed From Last Week: DeMarcus Love was here last week, but Solder moved up and is available.
27. Indianapolis Colts, Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College
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Why Costanzo Goes Here: Costanzo will be one of those guys who could go higher but won't, for whatever reason.
How Costanzo Fits In: Assuming all of the Colts' star players recover from injuries, their offensive line still needs fresh talent. Costanzo will have a place here.
What Changed From Last Week: Gabe Carimi moved down the board, making Costanzo the best player available at this position.
26. Baltimore Ravens, Rodney Hudson, C Florida State
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Why Hudson Goes Here: The Ravens offensive line has a problem at center. Matt Birk is in his 13th season. Hudson instantly makes the line 20-years younger.
How Hudson Fits In: Assuming Birk stays healthy, it gives the Ravens a year to break Hudson in and it adds depth if Birk gets injured.
What Changed From Last Week: Last week's pick, Akeem Ayers, now is long gone. Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome knows keeping Joe Flacco upright is a team need.
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Travis Lewis, OLB Oklahoma
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Why Lewis Goes Here: The Buccaneers have one of the worst run defenses in the league. Lewis is being touted by scouts as being a "beast against the run."
How Lewis Fits In: If Lewis is as good as advertised, he'll quickly take over the Bucs run defense.
What Changed From Last Week: Nick Fairley no longer is the best option for the Buccaneers at this point.
24. New York Jets, Jonathan Baldwin, WR Pittsburgh
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Why Baldwin Goes Here: The Jets have few receivers for Mark Sanchez to throw to, which makes his below-average accuracy even worse.
How Lewis Fits In: Assuming he can catch the ball, he'll be the No. 2 wide receiver by Week 3. Braylon Edwards can't be a good receiver for more than a few weeks at a time.
What Changed From Last Week: Did you see the Packers game? Picking Ryan Kerrigan at this spot went out the window after last week's performance.
23. New Orleans Saints, Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
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Why Miller Goes Here: The Saints found out the hard way this year that Scott Fujita was a critical part of their defense.
How Miller Fits In: Miller's speed, skills and athleticism will bring an immediate impact to the team.
What Changed From Last Week: Stephen Paea is off the board at this point.
22. Kansas City Chiefs, Cameron Jordan, DE California
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Why Jordan Goes Here: Jordan is strong, shows good discipline for staying with the play and has long arms to reach the ball carrier.
How Jordan Fits In: Jordan will make an impact in short-passing situations and he is agile enough to get around slower blockers.
What Changed From Last Week: Julio Jones is off the board and the Chiefs won't reach for a wide receiver at this point.
21. Green Bay Packers, Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio State
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Why Heyward Goes Here: Heyward has a lot of talent and he'll add depth to the Packers defense.
How Heyward Fits In: It gives the Packers another threat beside Clay Matthews.
What Changed From Last Week: The Packers probably wanted a running back like Mark Ingram, but he's off the board now.
20. Houston Texans, Rahim Moore, S UCLA
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Why Moore Goes Here: The Texans secondary needs help. It's actually ranked lower than Cleveland's.
How Moore Fits In: Moore's presence should instantly make the Texan's secondary better.
What Changed From Last Week: Moore is higher rated than DeAndre McDaniel at the moment, so Moore gets the pick.
19. Miami Dolphins, DeMarco Murray, RB Oklahoma
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Why Murray Goes Here: The Dolphins backfield is going to radically change this offseason. That's just how it's going to be.
How Murray Fits In: The Dolphins will have youth on their side, with the current backfield most likely not returning in its present form.
What Changed From Last Week: The way the board stands at this point, Ryan Williams may be a bit of a reach and Murray becomes the better option.
18. San Diego Chargers, Allen Bailey, DE Miami
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Why Bailey Goes Here: The Chargers need to upgrade this position and Bailey is a skilled player who explodes through the line.
How Bailey Fits In: The Chargers can work him right into a backup role immediately, with Bailey becoming a starter by midseason.
What Changed From Last Week: There's nothing wrong Cameron Heyward. Bailey is ahead of him on the draft board.
17. Seattle Seahawks, Stephen Paea, DT Oregon State
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Why Paea Goes Here: The Seahawks could not stop Darren McFadden. Paea shuts down running lanes.
How Paea Fits In: The Seahawks got exposed last week and Paea will make their defense a lot better.
What Changed From Last Week: Adrian Clayborn now is long gone.
16. Philadelphia Eagles, Janoris Jenkins, CB Florida
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Why Jenkins Goes Here: Ellis Hobbs has not played up to his potential and Jenkins appears to be a natural at the position.
How Jenkins Fits In: If Hobbs doesn't improve, Jenkins will get his shot at starting fairly quickly.
What Changed From Last Week: Jenkins is much higher rated than Allen Bailey, and since Jenkins is available, he goes here.
15. New England Patriots (Via Oakland), Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
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Why Ingram Goes Here: If BenJarvis Green-Ellis was the answer at running back in New England, we'd have been notified by now.
How Ingram Fits In: Ingram will be given the ball and told to run. He won't want to let Bill Belichick down.
What Changed From Last Week: With A.J. Green off the board, it's doubtful Belichick really would want any of the other WR prospects in the first round, especially if Ingram is still on the board.
14. Chicago Bears, Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi State
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Why Sherrod Goes Here: The Bears have to draft an offensive lineman in the first round, period.
How Sherrod Fits In: Sherrod's pass-protection skills are rated better than his run-blocking skills. Since Jay Cutler gets sacked 15 times a game, the Bears have to go with the guy who protects the quarterback.
What Changed From Last Week: No matter how good Da'Quan Bowers may be, the Bears have to do something about their offensive line.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars, Ryan Kerrigan, DE
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Why Kerrigan Goes Here: Kerrigan has a lot of sacks and forces fumbles, something the Jaguars need in their defense.
How Sherrod Fits In: The Jaguars have plenty of room for Kerrigan—their defense is bad.
What Changed From Last Week: With the Jaguars moving this far down on the board, they don't have a prayer of getting Patrick Peterson.
12. Washington Redskins, Christian Ponder, QB Florida State
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Why Ponder Goes Here: If I have to explain this to you, you don't watch a lot of NFL football.
How Ponder Fits In: Shanahan needs a quarterback since he's obviously done with Donovan McNabb. Rex Grossman, JaMarcus Russell and J.P. Losman aren't answers, and Ponder becomes the highest rated QB on the board.
What Changed From Last Week: There will be no redshirt season for Nick Foles here. The Redskins will need first-round talent that's ready to go.
11. St. Louis Rams, Julio Jones, WR Alabama
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Why Jones Goes Here: The Rams have to give Sam Bradford a No. 1 receiver, and Julio Jones can be that guy.
How Jones Fits In: Like the rest of the young guys on a rebuilding team, Jones steps right in and starts.
What Changed From Last Week: A.J. Green is off the board.
10. Arizona Cardinals, Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA
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Why Ayers Goes Here: The Cardinals are giving up points through the air like crazy. They need to get better in that area and they're just not going to take a quarterback in the first round.
How Ayers Fits In: The Cardinals defense is going into a rebuilding mode, so Ayers will end up as a backup to start the year, starting by midseason.
What Changed From Last Week: Ayers is much higher rated than Aaron Williams.
9. Cleveland Browns, A.J. Green, WR Georgia
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Why Green Goes Here: The Browns have needs in their secondary. But they really have no wide receivers that would even be backups on most other teams.
How Green Fits In: He'll be the Browns No. 1 receiver to start the year, by default.
What Changed From Last Week: The change in the top 10 makes Green available to the Browns, who take him over Brandon Harris.
8. Detroit Lions, Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
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Why Bowers Goes Here: Kyle Vanden Bosch turns 32 this month. Bowers is a beast who would play well alongside Ndamukong Suh.
How Bowers Fits In: In the Lions young line, Bowers will make a great fit. And with Suh, the Lions become a legitimate playoff contender.
What Changed From Last Week: Prince Amukamara is gone and there's nothing wrong with Bowers.
7. Cincinnati Bengals, Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
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Why Clayborn Goes Here: Clayborn has had some character issues. But the Bengals never have cared about that stuff and Clayborn is too good a talent to pass up.
How Clayborn Fits In: The Bengals need another pass rusher because the current group isn't really getting much done.
What Changed From Last Week: Robert Quinn is gone, so Clayborn goes here.
6. Minnesota Vikings, Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas
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Why Mallett Goes Here: The Vikings already have indicated Tarvaris Jackson is not their choice for the future by bringing Brett Favre in.
How Mallett Fits In: The Vikings probably will try and have Jackson start the season, but that won't last more than a few weeks.
What Changed From Last Week: Not a thing. This pick holds strong.
5. Denver Broncos, Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
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Why Dareus Goes Here: Jamal Williams is getting old and Dareus is very highly rated at this point.
How Dareus Fits In: Dareus will get time to adjust, unless age or injuries neutralize Williams.
What Changed From Last Week: Nothing. Dareus stays where he is.
4. Dallas Cowboys, Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
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Why Peterson Goes Here: Have you seen the Cowboys secondary this year? It's terrible.
How Peterson Fits In: Peterson has shutdown corner written all over him. Jerry Jones is going to love this guy.
What Changed From Last Week: The Dallas defense is a greater need than Derek Sherrod's potential contribution to the offensive line.
3. San Francisco 49ers, Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
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Why Amukamara Goes Here: The 49ers may decide they don't want to spend first-round money on a quarterback after the Alex Smith show. We'll assume for now that Troy Smith plays well enough to get another year.
How Amukamara Fits In: The 49ers need more help in their secondary.
What Changed From Last Week: Jake Locker is not the first-round prospect he used to be.
2. Carolina Panthers, Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina
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Why Quinn Goes Here: Quinn is one of the best defensive ends in the draft and the Panthers have to take the best player available for one of their many needs.
How Quinn Fits In: The Panthers will have Quinn starting in Week 1.
What Changed From Last Week: Quinn is a better prospect than Joseph Barksdale at this point.
1. Buffalo Bills, Andrew Luck, Stanford
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Why Luck Goes Here: There's no future for a team without a franchise quarterback, and Luck wins the draft lottery.
How Luck Fits In: He'll be starting Week 1 and we'll see if he can repeat the success of Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford.
What Changed From Last Week: Nothing. Why mess with a winner?
Where's Jake Locker?
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What happened to Jake Locker?
The 2010 season happened to Locker, who has been getting exposed for making poor decisions and who is probably not ready to run an NFL team. Not that he won't develop, but he may not be first-round material anymore.
Locker will become the big free-fall story of the 2011 draft, eventually falling to San Francisco in the second round.
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