NFL Week 9 Picks: Can the San Diego Chargers Rescue Their Season in Houston?
The weekend is almost here, and it's time to get down with some NFL picks for Week 9.
There's some pretty interesting lines for this week's action, including several that don't have much faith in the home team. And as always, there are plenty of locks to be found, but also plenty games to avoid altogether.
So let's take a look at each and every matchup, ordered from the iffiest of the iffies to the best of the stone-cold locks.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
1 of 13
Line: Baltimore -5
Why Miami Can Win: First and foremost, because the Dolphins are undefeated on the road. But to win this game, they need to get back to the run game. They're just 16th in the NFL in rushing after finishing fifth last season, and they're also 6-1 when Chad Henne’s has 30 pass attempts or fewer.
Nevertheless, Baltimore has given up an average of 318.7 yards through the air in their past three games for some reason.
Why Baltimore Can Win: They'll be well rested coming off their bye, and their scare against Buffalo should be far from their minds.
The Ravens are 7-1 following a bye since 2002. Joe Flacco is hot these days, throwing five scores without an interception in his last two games. The Ravens are 11-1 at home when he’s thrown for at least one score.
Prediction: The Dolphins may be undefeated on the road, but the Ravens are undefeated at home. Advantage Baltimore. But not to cover. Baltimore by three.
San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans
2 of 13
Line: San Diego -3
Why San Diego Can Win: After being at the top of the charts in both offense and defense, while sporting a 2-5 record, the Chargers finally pulled out a big win this past weekend against Tennessee. They have a huge advantage in this one, as they will pit the league's top passer in Philip Rivers against the league's worst past defense.
The biggest question for San Diego is Antonio Gates' toe. If he can't go or is limited during the game, Rivers basically loses his biggest weapon.
Why Houston Can Win: Houston will be coming off a short week and a loss to the injury-depleted Colts—neither of which bode well for them.
The Texans are also last in the league in first-half scoring. They can't afford to get too far down against San Diego, as they don't have the kind of defense that will allow too many points late in a game. In other words, they won't easily abide a second-half comeback. Since San Diego has allowed only two 100-yard rushers this season, the idea should be simple: Andre Johnson.
Prediction: I never like it when the home team is an underdog to a visiting team with a 3-5 record, no matter who the other team is. I'll take the Texans by three.
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills
3 of 13
Line: Chicago -3
Why Chicago Can Win: The Bears haven't looked so hot since starting the season 3-0, as they have gone 1-3 over their next four games and have seen some pretty dreadful quarterback play from both Jay Cutler and the great Todd Collins.
It's not all bad though. The Bears are coming off a bye week, and Mike Martz's struggling offense is getting just what they need in the Buffalo Bills. They're last in the league in opponent's scoring (30.1) and close to the bottom in yardage allowed (384.3). They should be able to get Matt Forte back on track against the league's worst rush defense, as he has just 52 yards rushing in the Bears' last two games.
Why Buffalo Can Win: Buffalo has come close to finally getting on the board in each of their last two games. And while it's going to be tough for Ryan Fitzpatrick and company to overcome a tough Bears defense, they managed to hang with Kansas City's own tough defense.
As far as their own defense is concerned, they're going to have to wait a little while before they can put Shawn Merriman onto the field, so they'll have to make due with a unit that is coming off a game in which they allowed a season-low 10 points.
Prediction: In a matchup of two dreadful teams, I'll always take the one that's playing with more spirit. I'll take the Bills by three.
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Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
4 of 13
Line: Minnesota -9
Why Arizona Can Win: It's a guessing game with Arizona's quarterbacks, to say the least. The bright side is that they probably beat Tampa Bay on Sunday if Max Hall doesn't throw two pick-sixes. That must be why Derek Anderson is going to start this game.
Either way, the Vikings will not be easy to pick apart on defense for either one of them, so they're going to have to rely on their own body stoppers if they want to have any hope of winning this game. They need to try and recapture some of the mojo from their game against New Orleans, and hope that Brett Favre continues playing like he has this season.
Why Minnesota Can Win: We should be thanking Brad Childress for getting our minds off Brett Favre this time around. As it is, this game looks like a pretty good matchup for his team.
The Cardinals have the league's fourth-worst rush defense, and they have the league's best running back. Childress may be a dolt when it comes to offense, but he should be able to out those two things together.
Prediction: What has Minnesota done this season to earn a nine-point spread? They'll win, but not by nine.
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
5 of 13
Line: New York -4
Why New York Can Win: The Jets probably should get the benefit of the doubt over their stinker against Green Bay last Sunday. But then again, how the heck do you get shut out following a bye week? Oh well.
As always, the Jets will run the ball, but Detroit's defense is not as soft as you might think. The good news is that Sunday's game hasn't debunked our faith in the Jets defense. However, they face a tough test against the NFC's best offense.
Why Detroit Can Win: Having Matthew Stafford back sure did make a huge difference last week against Washington. He threw for four touchdowns, three of which went to Calvin Johnson. Sounds like a recipe for success, even if they are playing the Jets. But they need to get Jahvid Best going again, as he can be unstoppable.
Prediction: Hard to believe that the Jets will be that bad two weeks in a row. I like them to win by six.
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
6 of 13
Line: Philadelphia -3
Why Indianapolis Will Win: We seem to be underrating Indy simply because they're not undefeated. Shame on us.
Nevertheless, it's only a matter of time before all their injuries start to drag them down. It looked like Mike Hart was going to be an able replacement for Joseph Addai, who went down with an ankle injury, and now he's questionable for this one.
If Michael Vick starts, and he should, then Indy will be faced with a threat they haven't had to face yet this year.
Why Philadelphia Will Win: Having Vick back should be a huge boost. With all due respect to Kevin Kolb, he just doesn't spread the field like Vick does.
Philly's pass defense is plenty respectable, and they're going to need their A game coming off a bye week against Peyton and the Colts.
Prediction: I never pick against Peyton Manning. Colts by five.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
7 of 13
Line: Pittsburgh -4.5
Why Pittsburgh Can Win: The Saints showed us that the Steelers do, in fact, have flaws. But it would be very surprising if Mike Tomlin and company wouldn't remedy things this week against the Bengals in their second straight primetime game.
Ben Roethlisberger should be able to bounce back from what amounted to be a subpar game against New Orleans. He's 6-1 in Cincinnati in his career, with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions.
Why Cincinnati Can Win: Teams have been taking to the air lately to avoid Pittsburgh's stingy rush defense, as they've given up 261.5 yards per game over their last four games. Good news for Cincinnati, who have all the makings of an elite pass offense. Batman and Robin... err, T.O and Ochocinco had better show up.
Prediction: The Steelers won't lose two in a row. Pittsburgh by eight.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
8 of 13
Line: Oakland -2.5
Why Kansas City Can Win: It seems like it's rarely pretty, but the Chiefs always manage to pull it out. But they're going to have to even out their home-road splits in this one against a hot Oakland team.
Kansas City is averaging almost nine fewer points on the road, and give up 9.5 more points away from home. They're best hope is that Nnamdi Asomugha can't go for the Raiders, as both his ankle and his hand are banged up.
The Raiders can be run on, however, and the Chiefs have the best rushing attack in football at over 190 yards a game.
Why Oakland Can Win: Have the Raiders finally turned a corner? It certainly looks like they have.
More than 500 yards of offense in their last two games and they've outscored Denver and Seattle by a combined 92-17. Good offense, yes, but don't discount the effort of the defense. The only real hitch is that they've lost eight in a row at home to the Chiefs.
Prediction: The Raiders will just win, baby. Give me Oakland by 10.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
9 of 13
Line: New England -4.5
Why New England Can Win: Pick a reason. They're the NFL's only remaining one-loss team, and they have the highest scoring offense in football. Their defense is patchy, yes, but it doesn't really matter when you can score like they can.
Tom Brady should be able to feast on a Browns defense that gives up over 240 yards passing a game.
Why Cleveland Can Win: Eric Mangini will get another crack at Bill Belichick, and you know how much he relishes those opportunities.
The Browns dominated the last tough quarterback they faced, intercepting Drew Brees four times, including two pick-sixes. Colt McCoy is likely to get his third straight start, and you have to imagine the Browns would prefer he emulate his first start in which he thew for 280 yards.
Prediction: New England is hot right now. Ride 'em until they fall. New England by 12.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
10 of 13
Line: New Orleans -7
Why New Orleans Can Win: They always seem to come back from the dead every time we kill them off. And a game against the 1-6 Panthers looks like a steal. But the Saints are 0-2 in their last two games against sub-.500 opponents, and have been outscored 51-16.
The good news for the Saints is that Brees showed up in a big way during the second half against arguably the league's best defense, completing 20 out of 22 passes and two touchdowns. The Panthers, however, have the league's fifth best pass defense. That doesn't bode too well for a team that is as one-dimensional on offense as the Saints.
Why Carolina Can Win: The Panthers simply can't move the ball. They're last in the league in total offense, and things will be even worse if DeAngelo Williams can't go again. Matt Moore can't pass the ball worth a lick, and the Saints have the third-best pass defense in the league, and could get Tracy Porter and Jabari Greer back.
Prediction: It almost feels like you can't trust the Saints these days, but you have to like them in this game. I'll take New Orleans to cover, and win by 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
11 of 13
Line: Atlanta -8.5
Why Tampa Bay Can Win: Against Arizona, the Bucs hardly backed up Raheem Morris' assertion that he has the best team in the conference. So they have their work cut out for them against Atlanta.
Handing the ball off to LaGarrette Blount worked pretty well in the second half against Arizona, so they should probably stick to it and hope to control the clock.
Why Atlanta Can Win: Atlanta has had two weeks for the Bucs, so they should be good. Roddy White is the best receiver in the NFC, but Michael Turner will undoubtedly get the bulk of the work against Tampa's soft rush defense. Matt Ryan is coming off his best game of the season, and he boasts a 16-1 mark at home.
Prediction: It's a big spread, but I like it. I'll take Atlanta by 10.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
12 of 13
Line: New York -7
Why New York Can Win: The Giants could very well be the best team in the NFC. They'll have a huge advantage in this game, as well.
They're third in the league with 24 sacks, and they will be facing an offensive line that let Matt Hasselback get sacked eight times against Oakland, including one that gave him a concussion. The Giants' defense as a whole is underrated, and Seattle doesn't really do anything particularly well on offense.
Why Seattle Can Win: The good news for the Seahawks is that they play much better at home, where they have a 3-0 mark. They also seem to get plenty of breaks at home, and they'll need some if they expect to beat New York.
Matt Hasselback has yet to pass the league's concussion tests, and he absolutely needs to play if Seattle is going to have any chance at winning this game.
Prediction: The Giants are on a roll, and they should win their fifth straight in this one. I like the Giants by nine.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
13 of 13
Line: Green Bay -8
How Dallas Can Win: First of all, show up and look like they at least care about earning their checks. Second of all, stop dropping balls and putting four interceptions on Jon Kitna's stat line. Third of all, stop the boneheaded plays. Fourth of all...
How Green Bay Can Win: This one looked like a good one before the season started. Now look at it. It feels like the Packers haven't hit their stride yet, but they've won two in a row, including games in which they beat Brett Favre to a pulp and then shut out the Jets.
The Cowboys usually play Aaron Rodgers tough, as he has just two touchdown passes and goes for an average of 226.7 yards against them, but Rodgers has yet to face a Cowboys team this hopeless.
Prediction: Green Bay by 14.
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