NFL Week 9 Picks: Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets Prediction

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford made a triumphant return last week against the Redskins by throwing four touchdowns.  He led his Lions to two fourth quarter comebacks and his second half rating against the ‘Skins was 116.7, the highest for a half in his career. 

Stafford understands that in order to succeed he has to get the ball to Calvin Johnson, and that is exactly what he did, targeting the star wide out 15 times.

Mark Sanchez, the player that Stafford will always be linked to because of their draft status, started out the year with a tough outing against Baltimore, but followed it up with some very good games. However, the "Sanchize" has been less than stellar in his last two outings. 

So, which is the real Sanchez?

I am glad you asked. Sanchez is a fraudulent, over hyped, below average quarterback at best.  He might be average one day, but right now, he does a lot more to hurt the Jets than to help them.  Sanchez’s winning record is strictly a byproduct of the NFL Gods putting him in the best possible position to succeed.   As the cliché goes, a young quarterback’s best friends are a good running game and defense, and Sanchez had the NFL’s best in both categories and still managed to throw 20 interceptions last year.

Edge: Lions – Stafford is a future star and Sanchez is a fraud, enough said.

Wide Receivers

After a slow start by his standards, Calvin Johnson has come on like gang busters.  His three touchdowns against the Redskins was a career high, and now that Johnson has his starting quarterback in the game, look for 100 yard receiving days to become the norm.

The Jets wide receivers have totaled five touchdowns this year which is three less than Calvin Johnson by himself. 

The return of Santonio Holmes was supposed to help Sanchez, but as Michael Smith of Profootballtalk.com pointed out, the QB’s number have suffered since he was added to the lineup.

Edge: Lions –The Calvin Johnson train is finally at full speed.

Running Backs:

The Lions chose to go with Kevin Smith at the end of the Redskins game and he rewarded their trust by having one of his better games.  His vision this year seems to be infinitely better than previous seasons.

Can someone corner LaDainian Tomlinson and get him to tell us where he is hiding his time machine?  I don’t know how he has done it, but Tomlinson has somehow found a way to turn back the clock. He is running with a purpose, and the speed that disappeared his last two years in San Diego has somehow reappeared.

Edge: Jets – Tomlinson is running like his old self and that is bad news for the Lions.

Tight Ends:

The Lions went away from using Tony Scheffler in the two tight end set last week and instead decided to use Will Heller in order to provide better blocking for Matthew Stafford.

Brandon Pettigrew had a tough game as he dropped two passes and committed two holding penalties.  He did, however, redeem himself by catching a touchdown pass.

Dustin Keller leads the Jets in receptions, yards and touchdowns, but that is to be expected because Mark Sanchez won’t throw the ball more than ten yards downfield. 

Edge: Jets – I really like Keller and I believe he belongs in the upper tier of tight ends in the league.

Offensive Line:

The Lions’ offensive line did a very nice job against the Redskins last week.  They have gone against 3-4 defenses much of the year and have handled the pass rush quite well.  LT Jeff Backus, in particular, has excelled against 3-4 defenses by shutting out both Brain Orapko and Clay Matthews.

The Jets also do very well pass blocking as they have only allowed 11 sacks on the year.

Edge: Jets –Both teams pass block well, but the Jets do a better job in the run. 

Defensive Line:

Just when we thought we had seen what the Lions defensive line can do, they come up with their best performance of the year.  Getting six sacks from the defensive line is a feat only accomplished by premier defenses.

Ndamukong Suh is setting himself up as a serious contender for Defensive Player of the Year.

Shaun Ellis might not be able to get those double digit sack years he had back in the early 2000’s, but he is a solid player that shows up every year and will give you everything he has.

Edge: Lions – Do I really need to explain why?

Linebackers:

The return of DeAndre Levy was a big boost for the Lions’ linebacking corps. He helped limit the Redskins running backs to a combined 35 yards on 15 carries.

David Harris is a familiar name around Detroit because of his days at the University of Michigan.  Harris has gone on to the NFL and is doing pretty much what he did for the Wolverines—making a lot of tackles and hurting people.

Edge: Jets – This is still the weakest link in the Lions defense.

Secondary:

I don’t think enough can be said about how improved Detroit’s cornerbacks are.  The addition of Alphonso Smith has taken a weak unit and made it into an adequate one. But, the real question for the Lions is how well Amari Spievey can play as he is replacing the injured C.C. Brown.  The Redskins picked on him last week and his inexperience showed.

Darrelle Revis is as good of a shut-down corner as there has been since Deon Sanders and will have the unenviable task of covering Calvin Johnson.  He won’t be doing it alone though. I believe the Jets will play Johnson the same way the Packers did: by single covering him short but with deep safety help.

Edge: Jets – Lions are starting to play really well here, but the Jets are better.

Special Teams:

The Lions really struggled covering kicks last week, but they have done a good job all year, so one has to assume this is correctible.

The Jets are one of the better kick return teams, averaging 28.4 yards a return. 

Edge: Lions – Statistically the special teams are pretty even, but Jason Hanson gives Detroit the advantage.

Prediction:

The Jets get all the accolades for their defense, but here are some interesting statistics.  The Lions have more sacks, allow one more passing yard per game and are better on third down defense than the Jets.

The area the Jets are significantly better than the Lions is their run defense.

The Lions can’t run the ball anyway so that won’t be anything new.

Did I mention I hate Mark Sanchez?

Pick: Lions 32, Jets 28

2010 pick record: 6-1