2011 NFL Draft: 25 Prospects Who Have Serious Bust Potential
The 2011 NFL Draft already is becoming a hot topic of debate, as the NCAA season begins winding down and the NFL teams slowly separate the men from the boys.
With every draft, you have busts in the first round. It's inevitable. The trick is identifying who the busts might be and then staying away from them.
A lot of players look good right now, at the beginning of November, but some of them might not look so good come this time next year.
Here's a look at 25 guys who might bust out.
25. Terrance Toliver, WR LSU
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Terrance Toliver was rising on draft boards until he started dropping passes. He had a few big play opportunities that he wasn't able to capitalize on, and a receiver's ability to make big plays is what separates the first-round picks from the fifth-round picks.
Playing for LSU will get Toliver on the highlight reel and could fool some people into thinking he's a better receiver than he actually is.
24. Rahim Moore, S UCLA
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Rahim Moore has been burned on several occasions, and getting burned is not a habit any safety should be getting into.
While we await the combine, Moore's game tape shows flaws that will be exploited by NFL coaches and veteran receivers.
23. Ras-I-Dowling, CB Virginia
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Ras-I-Dowling has been impressing a lot of scouts. But an examination of his footwork shows he could be beaten in man-to-man coverage.
If he can't learn better technique in that area, he'll quickly be relegated to a backup in the NFL.
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22. DeMarcus Love, OT Arkansas
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DeMarcus Love has good size and speed, but his footwork has been lacking. And that could get his quarterback killed, as footwork is vital to good pass protection.
21. Jeremy Beal, OLB Oklahoma
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Jeremy Beal has just about everything you want in an OLB. But he can get locked up on his run defense, which won't serve him well should he get drafted by a team in the upper-midwest or northeast.
20. Cameron Jordan, DE California
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Cameron Jordan is a prototypical defensive end. But he's gotten a lot of sacks against bad teams which have really bumped his stats up.
While you're supposed to dominate bad teams, good players also get good stats against good teams.
19. Bruce Carter, OLB North Carolina
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Bruce Carter could end up being the dreaded 'workout warrior' of the 2011 draft. He has good size and physically projects well, but his instincts are bad and that can come back and bite the team that drafts him.
18. Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
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Gabe Carimi is being projected high in the first round in some mock drafts, but he has shown vulnerability to quick pass-rushers. His ability to adapt to the speed of the NFL will determine his success.
17. Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
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Nick Fairley has been playing well for Auburn this year, but scouts focus in on his athleticism and don't mention much else.
It's what you don't know that could end up leaving a team with a draft bust.
16. Nate Solder, OT Colorado
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Nate Solder is projecting well in all areas like most of the guys on this list. But it's been noted his technique isn't what it should be on pass rushes. If you get beat on the pass rush, you get blamed for breaking Tony Romo's collarbone.
15. Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
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Von Miller is another college prospect who will need time to adjust to the speed of the pro game. He will also need to learn how to recognize screens on a more regular basis while getting better angles on the play.
14. Anthony Castonzo, OT Boston College
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Anthony Castonzo is consistent and durable, showing good skills. But he is lean for an NFL offensive lineman. If he doesn't add some bulk in the next year, he will get pushed all over the field.
13. Cameron Heyward, DT Ohio State
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Cameron Heyward has got a great body for his position and shows good core strength. But, he struggles to counter when offensive linemen beat him and lacks the kind of speed to consistently turn the corner in the NFL.
12. Allen Bailey, DE Miami
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Allen Bailey gets nothing but praise from scouts as you look down the reports on various websites.
Then you see the 'weight-room warrior.'
Anyone with that moniker automatically should have 'bust potential' attached to their draft status.
11. Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas
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Our first quarterback of the day, Ryan Mallet, has Randy Johnson-ish height, but may have Derek Anderson interception syndrome.
While Mallett appears to be able to read defenses and knows when to hold it and when to throw it, he likes to throw the ball into coverages. Mallett can get away with throws like that in college, but as Browns and Cardinals fans know from repeated offerings from Anderson, you can't get away with that in the pros.
10. Akeem Ayers, OLB UCLA
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Akeem Ayers is quick, but his size is a big question. While Ayers will fight for every inch of turf, the size war in the NFL generally is one of the bigger keys when the talent level equals out.
9. Derek Sherrod, OT Michigan State
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Derek Sherrod has had trouble recognizing defensive-line shifts. That means he'll be in big trouble in the NFL, a league in which some defensive coordinators won't even set their defensive line until the ball snaps.
8. Adrian Clayborn, DL Iowa
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Adrian Clayborn is being projected as a very high first-round pick, but he has shown he may not have the speed to beat the elite offensive tackles in the NFL. Overall, he's shown to be better in pass coverage than run coverage.
Depending on who drafts him and the kinds of defenses Clayborn faces, his ability to learn how to defend the run better will determine his ability to avoid the 'bust' status.
7. Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina
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Robert Quinn also is projected to go very high despite the fact that he can get locked up in run coverage, especially in 'phone booth' situations.
While the NFL has become a pass-happy league, no NFL coach will abandon the run if they know the defender coming at the running back can be easily neutralized.
6. Stephen Paea, DT Oregon State
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Stephen Paea is the guy you want when defending the run, but he has few skills that translate well to the NFL when it comes to pass defense.
He needs to develop more moves, better footwork and the ability to adjust to the play as it happens.
A lack of adjustment is what will sink Paea if it comes to the 'bust' level.
5. A. J. Green, WR Georgia
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A.J. Green projects as one of the best wide receivers in the draft. His Achilles heel could be his height, as scouts noted his strides are so long that he becomes a route killer.
Green, like any other prospect, will have to learn how to adjust his talents to fit the team he's on or he'll end up on the bench with a big 'bust' stamp on his head.
4. Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
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Prince Amukamara is a good cover corner in all aspects of the game, but his only flaw could be a fatal one.
Amukamara has shown that quick direction changes slow him down as he adjusts to the play in front of him. Good wide receivers like Andre Johnson and Dez Bryant will exploit Amukamara if that trait manifests itself after the draft.
3. Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
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Despite all of Marcell Dareus' skills, he has a big red flag that could land him on top of the 'draft bust' scrapheap.
Dareus has been known to take plays off. If you do that in the NFL, it catches up to you very quickly and that will be the end of Dareus in the pros.
2. Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
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Patrick Peterson is getting a lot of attention for his cover skills at LSU. But his route recognition and anticipation skills are considered good but not elite.
Where Peterson can get in real trouble in the NFL is his tendency to be overaggressive and undisciplined in zone coverage. This leads to two things: being out of position and then getting burned or getting himself back into the play and committing a penalty.
Both results are bad and he will need to improve in both areas to avoid being a draft bust.
1. Jake Locker, QB Washington
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Jake Locker is one of the two top quarterback prospects in the draft. But like any top prospect, his skills have been scrutinized heavily.
While Locker appears to be a natural leader and can move the offense down the field, he already has taken quite a beating with a thumb injury and a neck injury.
Locker forces throws and his accuracy isn't quite where general managers and coaches want a first-round draft pick to be at this point in his career.
Locker has a lot of upside, but all the warning signs for 'draft bust' are as plain as day. Locker will go in the first round. The question is: will he go high or will he have a Brady Quinn-type experience on draft day?
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