NFL Picks Against the Spread: Saints Trick the Steelers for Halloween Treat
Week 8 is here and the slate is covered with great games to choose from.
Before getting into each pick on every game, here is a quick recap of last week. The good news in Week 7 is I did not have a losing week as I finished 7-7, which has to be a good sign heading into Week 8. That brings my overall record against the spread in the NFL for the season to 49-52-1.
That record is respectable considering I am picking against every game for every week, but it’s not good enough. The goal is to have a winning record and things look good for the Week 8 slate, let’s move on to the games.
Bye: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, NY Giants, Philadelphia, Baltimore
Jacksonville at Dallas
1 of 13
1:00 PM
CBS
Cowboys Stadium
With the postseason dreams fading, the Dallas Cowboys host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Cowboys posted as 6.5 favorites.
The Cowboys are off a lack luster performance on Monday Night Football as they were defeated by the New York Giants, 41-35. The biggest news was that the Cowboys lost quarterback Tony Romo with a broken clavicle. Jon Kitna came in and competed admirably, but thinks are looking bleak in Dallas.
Luckily for the Cowboys the Jacksonville Jaguars are coming to town. The Jaguars were throttled 42-20 on the road in Kansas City and it the defense is very vulnerable, especially through the air. They ranks 27th in the league against the pass and that will help the Cowboys get going and click offensively in this game.
The Jaguars are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss. The Cowboys are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Cowboys get a big win and get back on the winning track.
Play Cowboys (-6.5)
Green Bay at NY Jets
2 of 13
1:00 PM
FOX
New Meadowlands Stadium
After a big win against the Vikings, the packers head east to take on the New York Jets. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Jets listed as six-point favorites over Green Bay.
Jets come into this game off of a bye week and will be well rested and ready to go against the Packers. This game to me is one of the harder games to pick as the line seems to be right on for this contest.
I am going to side with the underdog in this contest. The Packers are getting healthier and that will allow them to keep it close with the Jets. As long as they have a healthy Aaron Rodgers they can move the ball through the air. The defense is starting to come together and will be up to the challenge.
In a close game I like to look at the edge in turnovers. Packers have 12 takeaways, and have scored 56 points off them to rank second in league behind Tennessee and can put some points on the board or put their offense in a good position to score. The offensive line has gotten much better at protecting Rodgers and will buy him some time. The Packers are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a winning home record. I’ll take the points and the Packers in Week 8.
Play on Packers (+6)
Buffalo at Kansas City
3 of 13
1:00 PM
CBS
Arrowhead Stadium
The surprisingly surging Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills as they prove to the NFL they are for real. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Chiefs listed as 7.5-point favorites.
The Chiefs have looked outstanding this year as running backs Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combine to average 5.0 yards on the ground. Matt Cassell has looked great as the signal-caller of this club and the defense is holding their own.
The Bills enter Arrowhead Stadium without a win although they nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the week with a narrow loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick put up over 300 yards and four touchdowns against a tough Baltimore defense as the offense is starting to be successful under the new system.
The Chiefs may be the better team, but they are on upset alert this week against the Bills. The Bills proved they can through the ball and the Chiefs are ranked 25th against the pass. The Chiefs will be looking right past the Bills as they have a few AFC West divisional games upcoming.
The Chiefs are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing road record. The Bills are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Bills plus the points are the way to go and they may win outright if the Chiefs are not careful.
Play On Buffalo (+7.5)
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Denver at San Francisco (In London)
4 of 13
1:00 PM
CBS
Wembley Stadium
This week the NFL goes global when the Denver Broncos take on the San Francisco 49ers in London. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the 49ers as 1.5-point favorites. I wonder if the NFL had second thoughts about sending suck terrible teams to represent the league.
The 49ers finally got a win to get back on track and then went to Carolina and laid an egg. It seemed as though the 49ers had every chance to win this game but just kept giving it away. Alex Smith was injured in the game and will not play this week. Coach Mike Singletary announced that Troy Smith will get the nod at QB and a chance to win for the Niners.
The Broncos were lambasted at home against the Oakland Raiders. They were never in the game and beaten in every aspect of the game. I am sure they looked forward to getting out of the country after that performance.
Troy Smith will be a blessing for the Niners at quarterback. He can throw the ball with precision, but more importantly he adds mobility to the equation making it harder for defenses to cover him. The 49ers are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS off a loss as favorite. The Broncos are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss and 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games following a loss of more than 14 points.
The 49ers win big over the Broncos in a high-scoring affair.
Play on 49ers (-1.5)
Seattle at Oakland
5 of 13
4:15 PM
FOX
Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum
The Seattle Seahawks hit the road to face off against the Oakland Raiders. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Raiders listed as 2.5-point favorites.
The Raiders are off a huge win on the road against the Broncos where the demolished the Denver defense. They excelled on offense and defense on their way to taking apart this team and showing a glimpse of what raider fans have been longing to see for years.
Pete Carroll is working wonder sin Seattle and he has his team on top of the division in the NFC West. The defeated the Cardinals at home and are looking to win again on the road.
Don’t let last week’s performance against the Broncos sell you on the Raiders just yet. The strength of that team is the running game behind Darren McFadden. That plays into the hands of the Seahawks as they rank second in the NFL in stopping the run and allow just less than 80 yards per game. This will put the game for the raiders in the hands of the quarterback, and I am not ready to trust Jason Campbell at this point.
The Raiders are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
Seahawks win on the road again.
Play on Seattle (+2.5)
Carolina at St. Louis
6 of 13
1:00 PM
FOX
Edward Jones Dome
The Carolina Panthers take to the road after getting their first win to take on the St. Louis Rams. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Rams listed as three-point favorites in this game.
The Rams limp into this game after losing to the Bucs on the road. The Rams seemed to have the game well under control but in the waning second the Buccaneers rallied for the win. The Rams head home where they have had some success this year winning their last three games.
The Panthers finally got their first win of the season when they beat the San Francisco 49ers. The Panthers beat the 49ers with timely offense that was able to score through the air. Matt Moore took over at quarterback and the Panther young wide receivers are finding their niche in the NFL.
The Rams are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite and 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record. The Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 against the NFC, 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
The Rams will still be suffering a hangover from the last game and the Panthers believe they can win again. Panthers win outright as a road underdog.
Play On Panthers (+3)
Miami at Cincinnati
7 of 13
1:00 PM
CBS
Paul Brown Stadium
The reeling Cincinnati Bengals will host the Miami Dolphins this week in an AFC showdown. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Bengals labeled as one-point favorites at home.
The Dolphins played admirably last week but came up short against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The game was marred by a controversial call that could have given the ball and the game to the Dolphins. Instead they ended up losing at home in yet another close game and will have to try and put that game behind them as they head into Cincinnati.
The Bengals were beat down by the Falcons in a shootout by the final score of 39-32. The defense had trouble containing the Falcons all game long and after the game the Bengals found out they lost cornerback Adam Jones due to a herniated disk in his neck.
With all the problems they Bengals are having this game actually lines up in their favor. The Dolphins favor the run and the weakness for the Bengals is through the air. The Bengals offense is looking better and better with the emergence of Jordan Shipley. The Dolphins struggle against the pass and that will allow the Bengals to get a win at home and cover the small number.
Play On Bengals (-1)
Washington at Detroit
8 of 13
1:00 PM
FOX
Ford Field
This is one of my favorite picks of the week and the Vegas line should have everyone running to the ticket window to place your NFL wager.
When the Washington redskins travel to take on the Detroit Lions, they were made underdogs although they have a better record and seem to be the better team. The latest NFL odds as posted by BetPhoenix have the Detroit Lions as three-point favorites.
What gives? How can the lowly one-win Lions be favored in this game? Well it’s not that far-fetched when you look at a few things.
The Lions are coming off of a bye and have had ample time to prepare for this game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford returns to the lineup to give a potent offense more firepower, and the Lions have played very tough against top-tier opposition this season. I have a complete breakdown of the game here, but the Redskins will lose this game.
The Redskins are 6-18-3 against the spread (ATS) against a team with a losing record and 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games on turf. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Lions are well rested and will move the ball on a suspect Washington Redskin defense.
Play The Lions (-3)
Houston at Indianapolis
9 of 13
8:30 PM
ESPN
Lucas Oil Stadium
A stake of first place is on the line as the Houston Texans battle the Indianapolis Colts on Monday Night Football. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Colts listed as 5.5-point favorites.
This is a rematch from Week 1 when the Texans beat the Colts behind the strong running of Arian Foster. The Texans gained some confidence with that win and realize that if they plan on winning the AFC South they have to get through the Colts.
Currently the Colts are really banged up, especially on offense. Peyton Manning will be without many of his weapons as they suit up for this game. Most notably Dallas Clark, Manning’s favorite weapon, will be out of the lineup as he is lost for the year due to an injury. This will severely hurt the Colts as they try to adjust to life without Clark.
The Texans may have some issues on defense, but they have their health and that is more than the Colts can say. The Colts have a weakness on defense and that is against the run. They rank 26th in the league in rushing defense and that will allow Foster to have another outstanding day on the ground. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and the Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.
The Texans and the points are the way to go in this game as the Texans surprise the short-handed Colts and sweep the season series.
Play on Texans (+5.5)
Tennessee at San Diego
10 of 13
4:05 PM
CBS
Qualcomm Stadium
The struggling San Diego Chargers hope to finally get a win when they host the Tennessee Titans this week. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Chargers as 3.5 point favorites.
The Titans are streaking right along and sit atop the AFC South. Last week wide receiver Kenny Brit had a breakout game and the Titans offense torched the Eagles defense. They now travel to face the Chargers who are desperate for a win.
The Chargers lost last week against the Patriots in a game where they did everything they could to lose. It could be argued that they played better than the Patriots, yet they had too many turnovers, a lack of hustle and zero discipline that led to the loss.
The Chargers are losing games but the numbers suggest they are a good football team. They rank in the top five in offense and defense and will be ready for this game against the Titans. The Titans have to travel to the West Coast and they are 0-6 ATS in the last six games against the Chargers.
The Chargers are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 and 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. The Titans are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game and they come up short in this game as the Bolts win and cover the small number.
Play on Chargers (-3.5)
Tampa Bay at Arizona
11 of 13
4:15 PM
FOX
U of Phoenix Stadium
The Arizona Cardinals will try to get back on the winning path this weekend when they host the Tampa Bay Bucs. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Cardinals listed as three-point favorites in this game.
The Cardinals are off an unsettling loss to the Seahawks. They lost Max Hall to a concussion and the offense lost faith in replacement Derek Anderson. It has been announced that Hall is “good to go” this week after getting tested and will play in this game.
Tampa Bay needed every minute of the last game to win. They scored with second left on the clock to cap off a come from behind victory over the Rams. They hope to carry this momentum into the desert when they face the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are a different team at home and they do believe in Hall under center. Tampa Bay will be without two injured offensive linemen Jeremy Trueblood (knee), Keydrick Vincent (back) and the adjustment will be tough for the Bucs. The Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 and the Cardinals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
The Cardinals win with Hall under center and beat the Bucs at home while covering the number.
Play On Cardinals (-3)
Minnesota at New England
12 of 13
4:15 PM
FOX
Gillette Stadium
Drama goes to New England this weekend in the form of Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Patriots listed as 5.5-point favorites over the Vikings.
The key to this game will be if Favre will play. I am going to tell you that he will be in this game and if you like the Vikings you should jump on these points now because the line will drop when it’s announced that he will suit up. The consecutive game streak is very important to Favre and he will play, mark it down. Brad Childress will have no problem playing him.
The Patriots are a quality team, but they are prone to a good passing team. The young secondary ranks near the last in league in pass defense and this is something that the Vikings can take advantage of. The Patriots are 1-5 ATS off of back-to-back wins and will struggle to win this game, nevermind cover the 5.5 points. The Vikings are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss and Randy Moss will get a win against his former club.
Play on the Vikings (+5.5)
Pittsburgh at New Orleans
13 of 13
8:20 PM
NBC
Superdome
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger head to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints in Sunday Night Football. The latest NFL betting odds for this game as posted by BetPhoenix have the Saints listed as one-point favorites.
The Steelers enter this game with a 5-1 record and barely escaped Miami with a win after a newer fumble cost them the game. Well, technically it was a fumble, but the recovery could not be confirmed by replay and so the Steelers were able to kick the game-winning field goal.
The Saints are off the biggest upset of the NFL season as they lost outright as double-digit chalk to the Cleveland Browns. Quarterback Drew Brees turned the ball over four times in his worst performance of his career. He will get a chance to redeem himself against the Steelers at home on Halloween.
The Saints are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss and 7-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Saints are up to the challenge when a winning team comes to town as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a winning road record.
The Saints will exploit the Steelers through the air and be able to knock the Steelers off and get a win at home.
Play on the Saints (-1)
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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