Pittsburgh Steelers: Beating the Saints Won't Be 'The Big Easy'
At 5-1, the Pittsburgh Steelers look poised for another big season and perhaps a seventh title-winning run. Getting to 6-1 would certainly help that effort and put them in the pole position of the AFC North and the Conference as a whole.
To get there, however, the Steelers will have to go through the New Orleans Saints, the defending champions of the NFL.
The Saints might be suffering from a little of the same kind of Super Bowl hangover that afflicted Pittsburgh during the 2009 season, but they are still armed and dangerous. Also, they match up very well with the Steelers.
This will definitely be an interesting contest. Here's a look inside the game.
Steelers on Offense
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Passing Game
Ben Roethlisberger has looked both stronger and less rusty in his two games back from suspension. He's thrown five touchdown passes against only one interception and has developed a fast chemistry with new starting wideout Mike Wallace.
Against the Saints, watch for Roethlisberger to pass a little less. New Orleans, particularly now that Darren Sharper is healthy, is much better against the pass than most of the teams Pittsburgh has faced, allowing only 179.7 yards per game.
When they do pass, look for the Steelers to try to use the speed of Mike Wallace and rookie Emmanuel Sanders to their advantage. The deep ball has been a favorite this season, and it seems like New Orleans may be susceptible to its use on Sunday night.
Running Game
Rashard Mendenhall, who has suddenly disappeared since the return of Roethlisberger, will be essential to the team's success in New Orleans. The Saints aren't nearly as good against the run, allowing 108.7 yards per game.
Mendenhall and the Steelers average 118.8 yards per game on the ground, but that number has dropped off in the last two weeks. Part of the reason is that Roethlisberger is throwing a great deal more than Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon were permitted to do. The other part is that Mendenhall is nursing a sore shoulder.
The rushing attack will need to shoulder more of the load than usual against a staunch pass defense, but look for the Steelers to set up the pass with some effective runs and use of play action. I'm not a big fan of the Steelers running reverses or misdirection plays, but this might be a good time to try a couple of those as well.
Overview
The pass/run ratio has been pretty balanced since Roethlisberger returned, but I'd expect to see the Steelers try to run early and often. If they can do that and keep the Saints' vaunted offense on the sideline, they can take control of the game.
The Steelers average almost 31 minutes a game in time of possession. With a banged up defense playing against a good passing team, it'd be nice to see that number go up to around 34 or 35 minutes on Sunday.
Saints On Offense
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Passing Game
It all starts with Drew Brees. When he's on, like he has been for most of his Saints tenure, he's a devastating weapon. When he's off, as he was against lowly Cleveland on Sunday, the Saints struggle to be competitive.
The Saints have averaged 371.9 yards per game, a figure which is likely to decrease against a tough Steelers defense. 279.3 yards of that average, however, comes via the pass.
Brees and the Saints employ a lot of three receiver sets, which creates matchup problems for teams lacking good defensive backs. The Steelers have good backs, but they aren't the best in coverage. Look for Brees to pick on Ike Taylor especially. He will likely be matched with Marques Colston, New Orleans' best receiver.
With Reggie Bush banged up and largely ineffective on the ground and Pierre Thomas injured, the chances of a Saints victory rest squarely on the arm of number nine.
Running Game
The Saints average only 92.6 yards on the ground each game. This is bad because it means they will be largely unable to play ball control late if they have a lead. Unless the game gets out of hand, that could tip the balance against them.
Reggie Bush might return from an injury this week, but he's much more valuable in the passing game than he his on the ground. Pierre Thomas, the Saints best runner, is unlikely to play thanks to injury. That means that, against a team that has allowed one 100-yard runner in the past 40 games, relative unknown Chris Ivory will get the bulk of the carries.
Ivory, who is averaging 5.5 yards per carry, has carved out a name for himself the past two weeks, but this isn't your average run defense. Even without Aaron Smith, look for the Steelers to limit rushing yards on Sunday night.
Overview
It all rests with Brees' ability to harass the Steelers' defensive backs. If he can get his receivers behind the corners, he can probably make life tough for Pittsburgh. He likely will have trouble throwing over the middle, however, so don't look for Jeremy Shockey or the team's plethora of secondary receivers to have much room to roam.
Steelers On Defense
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Run Defense
Aaron Smith was lost for the bulk of the season thanks to a torn triceps. Ziggy Hood, the team's 2009 first round draft choice, will step into that spot. Brett Keisel may also be out, so Nick Eason could start on the opposite side of the line.
This is the perfect "get your feet wet" game for Hood, as the Saints do not run the ball effectively.
Look for a tough, run-stuffing defense by the Steelers. They shouldn't have too many problems with Saints runners. It is highly likely that New Orleans will be pass-heavy on offense, so the wisest choice is to play three down linemen and conserve the linebackers for pass rushing opportunities and coverage over the middle.
The Steelers allow only 63.7 yards per game on the ground. Even with the loss of Smith, this trend should continue.
Pass Defense
This could be a problem. The Steelers allow 235.7 passing yards per game, a number which is deceptive. Many of those yards have come after the game was either out of reach or tipped heavily in the Steelers' favor. They've also forced eight interceptions this season.
Against Drew Brees, hands down the league's best passer in terms of yardage, they will have to play a lot of close man and zone coverages on the outside. They can't afford to let Marques Colston and Lance Moore get behind them.
In the middle, Ryan Clark and Troy Polamalu will be expected to both blitz and cover the middle. This is the perfect time for Troy Polamalu to make an appearance. He's been largely absent in the team's defense this season, but now is when he is needed most.
Overview
The turnover battle could decide this game. If the Steelers can pressure Brees into mistakes the way the Browns did on Sunday, they can keep the Saints out of the end zone and keep their offense on the field.
Pittsburgh is a plus 8 in the turnover department, a marked improvement from last season. That improvement needs to continue.
I'd expect to see Dick LeBeau break out some of the exotic zone blitzes he's famous for this week, as they are likely to force mistakes and hurt the Saints more than almost anything else the Steelers can do. They absolutely cannot allow the Saints to take control of the game at all.
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Saints On Defense
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Run Defense
Allowing 108.7 yards per game, the Saints struggle much more against the run than against the pass. They will be faced with a tough stable of backs in Rashard Mendenhall, Isaac Redman, and the shifty Mewelde Moore.
If the Saints cannot stop the Steelers rushing attack they will have a hard time claiming victory. Pittsburgh is famous for ball control tactics, particularly if they get a decent lead in the game.
The Saints cannot lean heavily on the run or the Steelers will use play action and deep passes to make them pay. Guessing right against quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has become adept and changing plays at the line, is becoming a very inexact science.
The best plan for the Saints is to bring edge rushers on running downs. The Steelers like to run off tackle, so collapsing the edges of the line could force Mendenhall and company to try cuts, thereby slowing them down. Mendenhall can go up the middle effectively, however, so it would be unwise to leave the center unattended.
Pass Defense
Just as the Steelers' pass defense will likely play a deciding role in Sunday night's game, the Saints' ability to stop Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh receivers will be decisive as well.
Darren Sharper is back and looks like he's going to be an effective menace for quarterbacks once more. He'll need to be good on Sunday. He'll likely be in the middle and is expected to team with Roman Harper to stop Pittsburgh tight end Heath Miller.
Jabari Greer and Patrick Robinson have the toughest assignments, however. They will be expected to cover Mike Wallace and Hines Ward. Wallace has blazing speed, while Ward has veteran guile and an ability to frighten defenders.
Perhaps the best thing the Saints can try to do is to keep Ben Roethlisberger in the pocket and then sack him. The Steelers line is a little banged up, but they've been playing very well. If the Saints can get the upper hand against aging tackle Flozell Adams and his relievers, they might be able to force the Pittsburgh quarterback into mistakes or at least into staying away from the deep balls to Wallace.
Overview
The best the Saints can hope for is to stuff the run, make the Steelers one-dimensional, and then try to smash the pocket. They'll have to contain Roethlisberger for that to work. He proved against Miami that he can win games with his arm and legs.
New Orleans' defense has certainly improved, but they will need a better effort than they gave against Cleveland to have any chance of winning this game.
Specialists
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Pittsburgh
Daniel Sepulveda has been spectacular in his second year back from a torn ACL. His hang time and kick length have improved and he's becoming quite the weapon in the battle for field position.
Jeff Reed has struggled at home, but he's money on the road. This will likely continue. After nearly losing his kickoff job in preseason, he's increased his distance on kicks and will likely be able to achieve a few touchbacks in the Superdome.
In a game where every point is likely to be precious, the Steelers will need Reed to continue to be clutch. His three field goals on Sunday in Miami proved to be the difference in a victory. He'll likely be called upon at least a couple of times on Sunday night.
Saints
The Saints' kicking woes continue to be their undoing. First Garrett Hartley and then John Carney have failed to become consistent field goal threats necessary to compete.
Hartley is kicking this week unless something unforeseen shows up. He's two for three since returning from his sabbatical, so maybe he's figured it out. If not, the Saints are in trouble. The Steelers do not routinely allow touchdowns, so field goals might become much more essential.
Thomas Morstead is playing very well this season, averaging 47.6 yards on 24 punts. He will be essential for the Saints in field position, where making the field longer for the Steelers' offense could tip the balance of power.
The Edge/Prediction
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The edge goes to the Steelers. If the Saints were playing better and hadn't just been blown out by the last place Browns, things might be a little different.
Offensively, the Steelers' ability to run and pass gives them a huge edge. They'll be more able to keep the Saints' defense off balance than vice versa. Ben Roethlisberger is currently playing better than Drew Brees, which also factors into this decision.
Defensively, the Saints have a slight edge because they are allowing fewer yards, but the Steelers' ability to force turnovers and get after the quarterback could level the playing field. The Saints will have to do a lot more to win, and I'm not sold on their corners' ability to cover Mike Wallace or Hines Ward.
On special teams, give the Steelers a big edge until Garrett Hartley learns how to kick field goals with consistency. The punting battle will be about even, so expect field position to be an issue for both teams during the entire game.
In the end, the Steelers seem hungrier than New Orleans. The Saints look to be resting on their laurels after winning their city's first-ever championship.
Finally, here's my prediction:
Steelers 24, Saints 13
I'm relatively sure that this will be a close game. Both defenses should be able to keep the scoring in check, so I wouldn't predict a high scoring match. I think the Steelers have a better ability to score and can keep the Saints off the field with long drives.
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