UFC Mentality: How To Measure a Win or Loss in MMA

MMA fans in general don't know how to properly measure a win or a loss in MMA.

Last Saturday, Brock Lesnar got absolutely dominated, stomped and blown out by Cain Velasquez. That as it is, I'll argue that despite the loss, Lesnar remains arguably the second best heavyweight in the world.

The response I get to that is, "How can Lesnar be the second best in the world after getting dominated and finished like he did?"

The answer is that Brock Lesnar's loss needs to be measured properly and put into perspective.

Measuring what a win or a loss does for a fighter in MMA is always a difficult process, and one that is made more difficult by promoters and commentators who seem to always hype up a win as much as possible, while downplaying a defeat.

When measuring a victory or defeat, most fans look at dominance, excitement and the brutality of the finish. These things have their own importance, but by themselves, they aren't really fantastic indicators.

When Mauricio Rua knocked out Lyoto Machida, he did so in a brutal way that left no doubt as to whom was the champion. It was a brutal loss for Machida, and one that may be difficult to come back from.

That said, I think Machida's record speaks for itself, and that while he may have difficulty overcoming the loss, he's still the second best light heavyweight in the world.

When Nick Diaz defeated Marius Zaromskis, the fight was very exciting, but more important than how exciting it was, the victory really wasn't that great of a performance for Diaz.

He got dropped by a punch, which really exposed that while he's a very good offensive fighter and recovers well, he's still quite hittable and can indeed be knocked out.

When Jon Fitch got dominated by Georges St. Pierre for five rounds, the perception of Jon Fitch changed in the eyes of many who cannot see him as a good fighter, simply because he got dominated by the champ.  

What people miss here is that while Fitch may not be as good as St. Pierre in any area of MMA, St. Pierre is a terrible matchup for him, and he's still going to beat down just about anybody else in the division.

Here are some other factors that need to be taken into consideration when measuring the value of a win or loss.

The Level of the Opposition

It's all well and good to open a can of whoop-ass on your opponent, but more important than how badly you beat him is how good of an opponent he was to begin with.

The example that comes most quickly to my mind is Joe Lauzon's recent destruction of Gabe Ruediger.

Lauzon looked like an absolute behemoth in defeating Ruediger.

But...

This is Gabe Ruediger we're talking about. Not exactly a top 10 lightweight.

Later that night, all people could talk about was how bad Kenny Florian looked against Gray Maynard.

But for as ineffective as Florian looked over the last two rounds, people seemed to forget that Maynard isn't exactly a slouch of an opponent.

The Stylistic Matchup

More than just being a very good fighter, Maynard is also a fairly bad stylistic matchup for Florian, who just didn't have the wrestling to stand up to Maynard.

Last weekend, Brock Lesnar ran up against Cain Velasquez, who is probably the worst stylistic matchup possible for him.

Cain Velasquez is one of the very few guys in MMA who will be able to stuff Lesnar's takedowns or get back to his feet quickly after getting taken down.  Everybody else who gets taken down by Lesnar is probably going to be stuck there, getting smashed for the remainder of the round or until the referee stops the fight.

The way Velasquez popped back to his feet when Lesnar took him down near the fence is just not something you're going to see from any other 245-pound man inside the UFC.

Considering how hard of a stylistic matchup Velasquez is for Lesnar, the loss shouldn't really mean that much in the overall rankings, except that nobody seems to be able to look past how brutal the loss was.

On the other side of the coin, people are now talking about Diego Sanchez as if he's suddenly relevant again inside the UFC's welterweight division after his victory over Paulo Thiago.

What people forget is how bad of a style matchup this actually was.

Before the fight, I saw that Sanchez would probably win this fight because Sanchez is a very good grappler, and Thiago is prone to losing position and getting dominated on the ground.

Sanchez isn't going to find many other top level opponents who are as easy style matchups as Thiago.

Martin Kampmann, for example, isn't going to let himself get taken down like Thiago, and he's much better on his feet than Sanchez.  The same goes for Josh Koscheck, John Hathaway, Thiago Alves, and surprising as it sounds, Dan Hardy.

Meanwhile, guys like Jon Fitch, Jake Shields and maybe even Matt Hughes will probably just take down Sanchez and dominate from top position.

Well-rounded guys like St. Pierre and Carlos Condit and Kampmann are probably going to dominate Sanchez in every possible way.

The only guys Sanchez is really going to be favored against are one-dimensional strikers with bad takedown defense (who don't exist at the top levels of the welterweight division), and scrably guys with bad takedown defense like Nick Diaz and Paulo Thiago, whom Sanchez may be able to control from top position.

Lucky Punches and Mitigating Factors vs. Repeated Patterns

Sometimes a fighter will surprise you, either by doing something fantastically unpredictable or by not performing up to expectations.

When Matt Serra shocked the world against St. Pierre, it boosted Serra up to the top spot in the division temporarily, but because people realized that he wouldn't be able to replicate that kind of performance consistently, he moved down in the rankings significantly following the defeat.

St. Pierre, on the other hand, has shown that he's learned from that loss, and is unlikely to make the same mistake again, and so at this point, his loss to Serra has been nearly erased.

That is an example of a fluke.

However, if a guy gets caught repeatedly by being overzealous, like in the case of Andrei Arlovski, the examples stop being flukes and start becoming a recognizable pattern, to the point where if you ever see Arlovski winning a fight, then you almost start expecting him to get knocked out.

A case that I've mentioned frequently is the case of BJ Penn.

In the past, he's always had some sort of an excuse for why his motivation or cardio seemed to fail him in the fight, be it a broken rib, sinus infection, grease, etc.

When Penn lost to Frank Edgar for the second time, the real BJ Penn who is uber talented, but infrequently motivated and not spectacularly conditioned, finally became visible to the masses.

Last weekend we saw Jake Shields gas out against Martin Kampmann. The supposed mitigating factor in this case was a 20-pound weight cut in one day, and injuries in training camp that made losing the weight more difficult.

However, we've seen Shields get tired before in fights where he couldn't get his opponent to the ground. Examples include his fights with Yushin Okami and Paul Daley.

Since those fights took place a long time ago, it seems fair to give Shields a bit of a break.

But if he gasses out again, that will have to be something we simply expect to see from Shields whenever he faces a guy who can stuff his takedowns and slow him down on the ground.

A Win Is a Win

At some point, as in the case of Shields, it doesn't matter how you win, but only that you win. Shields has had some underwhelming victories, but that said, his record of victories over elite level opponents has to speak for itself.

Spectacular vs. Dominant vs. Everything Else

When Fedor Emelianenko wins, he often does so in spectacular fashion after getting tossed around or dropped on his head.

When Georges St. Pierre wins, he occasionally is spectacular, but more often than not, he wins by dominating his opponent completely from the start to the finish, giving his opponent absolutely no chance of victory.

If St. Pierre ever fights Anderson Silva, there are basically two ways the fight is likely to go if Silva doesn't knock out St. Pierre in the first 30 seconds of the fight.

1. St. Pierre dominates every minute of the fight until he wins, either by finish or decision.

2. St. Pierre dominates almost every moment of the fight up until the moment that he gets knocked out in dramatic and spectacular fashion.

Unless St. Pierre gets finished early, he's going to dominate Silva for long stretches due to his superior wrestling.

Silva, due to his knockout power, has a good chance of finishing St. Pierre in spectacular fashion.

However this fight ends, I see no way that people will be able to put this fight into proper context.

Either way, the win will be the biggest win in MMA history.

But the loser might still be the second best fighter in the history of the sport.