Roger Federer: Is He In His Prime? : What Are a Tennis Superstar's Best Years?-2

So what are a tennis superstar's best years?

I looked at the Grand Slam data of champions who had won at least six slam titles in the Open era.

All age referred to is age as on last birthday. 

The summarized results are as under: 

81% of the achievements were between 21 and 29, with most being clustered between 21 and 27. The maximum GS titles were at age 22 and 24.

For Federer, in particular, all but one of his GS titles were between 21 and 27. He had 3 at each of the ages 24, 25 and 27.

We can classify the findings as:

17-20: Pre-prime or precocity

21-27: Core Prime

28- 29: Secondary Prime (or Second wind?).

30-32: Last gasp?

We could obtain additional insight into the prime of superstars by looking at the ages of players having year-end top 10 rankings. 

This group has the multiple champions as well as other superstars enjoying the best ranking of their careers. In other words, this group includes superstars in their prime playing years.

I analysed the data from 1973 to 2009 and it has been summarized in the chart alongside. As can be seen, the curve looks very much like our familiar friend, the normal curve. Not surprisingly, the mean, median and mode are nearly equal.

Median ( Age having equal number of ages above and below ): 24

Mode ( Age occurring most often): 24 

Mean ( Average Age): 24.85

This supports the hypothesis that the peak is between 24 and 25.

The upper cap of the curve has ages 21 to 27.

So the prime can be taken to be between 21 and 27.

Ages 19, 20 on the left side and 28, 29 and 30 on the right side constitute pre-prime (precocity) and secondary prime respectively.

Players like Connors, Agassi, Laver and Rosewall have given the curve a long tail on the right hand side (the post prime heroes) .

1) What does this mean for Roger Federer?

His best playing years are behind him. He is unlikely to achieve four-in-a-row. However, his winning one or two slams in 2011 cannot be ruled out.

Oops! I forgot. None of the above analysis is applicable to him!

2) What does this mean for Rafael Nadal?

He is at his peak. His best chance to win four-in-a-row or a calendar slam or whatever difficult feat he wants to achieve is in 2011. I hope Team Nadal manages the superstar's schedule properly so that his fitness matches his potential.

" There is a tide in the affairs of men. Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life Is bound in shallows and in miseries "

3) What does this mean for Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro?

2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 are likely to be their best playing years.

However, because of the presence of Nadal, their best results may come only in 2012 or 2013 or thereafter.

4) What does this mean for tennis fans?

Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro would be at or near their peak in 2011.

Roger Federer would be in decline. This means the Federer of 2011 can be beaten by the Federer of 2006 or 2007. But he cannot be beaten by anybody else!

So, if there are no mono, back or leg issues, he can be counted upon to trounce the rest!

So we can look forward to a tennis feast fit for the Gods!