NFL Week 7 Picks: Can Giants Send Cowboys to 1-5 and Get Wade Phillips Fired?
To all of you compulsive gamblers out there – you are welcome. In a week 7 edition of NFL predictions I was 7-2 against the spread and hopefully made somebody out there a fistful of dollars. This week features an interesting slate of games including eight games with only a three point spread.
Just days removed from a weekend filled with massive hits, excessive fines and overtime thrillers, we look forward to an exciting docket of week 7 games. Will Brett Favre continue to struggle? Can the Panthers get their first win against the 1-5 49ers? Can any team emerge from the pack in the NFC? Read on for all that and more.
Steelers (-3) at Dolphins, Why Pitt Will Win, Why Miami Will Win, Predictiction
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Without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers posted the league's worst passing attack with only 150 yards/game. Only one game back and Pittsburgh’s aerial assault looks back in full force.
In a 28-10 victory over the Browns, Big Ben threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns on 16 of 27 passing – good for a 112.7 QB rating. While Miami sports a significantly better secondary, expect the Steelers to build on their success through the air.
The Steelers defense allows a league-best 63.8 rushing yards/game and should be able to neutralize Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, forcing the inconsistent Chad Henne to beat them with his arm.
Through six weeks, Pittsburgh has looked like the NFL’s best team and a three point line just doesn’t do this team justice – even in a road game against a solid Miami team. Expect James Harrison to play with a chip on his shoulder after being slapped with a $75,000 fine for his hits against the Browns.
Final Score: 24-17 Steelers.
Bengals at Falcons (-3.5), Why Cincy Will Win, Why Atlanta Will Win, Predictions
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A week after being thoroughly outplayed by the Eagles, the Falcons will try to bounce back with a win over the lowly Bengals. So far, the Falcons have been more lucky than good, barely escaping with wins over the 49ers and Saints. Although Atlanta looks like one of the NFC’s teams to beat with skill players like Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Michael Turner, they could easily sport a 2-4 record.
If Cincy is hoping to knock off the Falcons, Carson Palmer will have to play like his old self. This Atlanta secondary gave up 326 yards and three touchdowns to Kevin Kolb on Sunday and need to play much better if they hope to compete in the NFC.
Palmer no longer looks like a Pro Bowl quarterback, throwing six interceptions and losing two fumbles in the first five games. The Bengals have a great core of receivers with Owens, Ochocinco, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham. They’ll need big performances from those players if they hope to win on Sunday.
For Atlanta, Michael Turner will be the key. Cincinnati allows 111 rushing yards per game and the inconsistent Turner could be in line for a big game against this poor rush defense.
Final Score: 27-20 Falcons.
Rams at Buccaneers (-2.5) Why St. Louis Will Win, Why Tampa Will Win, Prediction
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A season after combining for only four wins, the Rams and Bucs have won three games apiece in the season’s first six weeks.
Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled offensively, especially in their running game. Their 3.6 yards per carry average puts them in the league’s bottom five in that category, and their passing attack hasn’t faired much better.
With limited offensive success, the Bucs have been winning behind the strength of a solid defense – particularly against the pass. That could spell trouble for rookie signal caller Sam Bradford.
Despite an injury that ended Bradford’s senior season early, the number one draft pick has looked sharp in the early going. His 226 yards/game are extremely impressive for a rookie, and his presence has stopped teams from loading up the box to prevent the run.
This should be a tight game, but with Steven Jackson facing the league’s second worst run defense, the Rams should be able to leave with a crucial road victory.
Final Score: 27-20 Rams.
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49ers at Panthers (-3) Why SF Will Win, Why Carolina Will Win, Prediction
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This game represents a stark contrast to the previously mentioned Rams, Bucs game. Each of these teams went 8-8 last season, but have combined for only one win through the seasons first six weeks. If either team has any playoff aspirations, this week is a must win.
For Carolina to get off the schneide, they will need huge games from DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Rookie QB Jimmy Claussen has looked awful in his debut, completing a pathetic 47 percent of his passes while throwing for under 100 yards per game. If the Panthers have any hopes of winning, they will have to pound the run and minimize Claussen’s impact on the game.
Similarly, the Niners will try to pound the rock against a shaky Panthers defense. While Alex Smith has not been nearly as ineffective as Claussen, San Fran holds a huge advantage over Carolina when they run the ball. The Panthers have one of the leagues ten worst rush defense, allowing 134 yards per game on the ground.
Meanwhile, Frank Gore looked phenomenal last week against the Raiders rushing for 149 yards on 25 carries. The 49ers still have hope at winning the weak NFC West, but they will need to come away with their first road victory of the season to do so.
Final Score: 24-13 49ers.
Redskins at Bears (-3) Why Washington Will Win, Why Chicago Will Win, Prediction
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This week’s matchup between the Redskins and Bears could be one to watch as it pits a stout Chicago defense against a much improved ‘Skins offense.
Behind newly acquired Donovan McNabb, Washington has become a top ten passing team. For Chicago, the addition of Julius Peppers has improved an already solid pass rush, and given the Bears another defense playmaker to compliment Brian Urlacher. With that said, it’s the teams weaknesses that will define this game.
Chicago has struggled all year protecting Jay Cutler, and Mike Martz offense has been an ill fit for the personnel in Chi-town. Although Matt Forte’s receiving skills make him an ideal running back, the receivers simply don’t have time to get open. If the Bears hope to win, they will need to buy Cutler some time in the pocket.
For Washington, the success of their running game will dictate whether they can win an away game in a hostile environment. Ryan Torain filled in for an injured Clinton Portis last week and ran for 100 yards on 20 carries -- of course this performance did come against a horrid Colts rushing defense. Will Torain be able to duplicate his success against the Bears talented front seven? If he can, Washington may be able to run away with a victory.
Final Score: 27-21 Redskins.
Browns at Saints (-13.5), Why Cleveland Will Win, Why NO Will Win, Prediction
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Just a week removed from an 18-point road loss against the Steelers, the Browns schedule gets no easier with another road game against the Super Bowl champion Saints. New Orleans is a huge favorite, and rightfully so.
The Saints passing attack ranks fifth in the league while the Browns secondary ranks amongst the bottom third of the league. Meanwhile, Cleveland will start rookie quarterback Colt McCoy against a very opportunistic Saints secondary and that could spell problems for the youngster from Texas.
A lot will have to go right if Cleveland hopes to waltz down south and leave with a victory. Despite a solid debut by McCoy (23 of 33 passes for 281 yards with one touchdown and two picks), Cleveland will have to pound the ball with the massive Peyton Hillis and try to control the clock. If Cleveland can just keep this game close going into the fourth quarter, they may have a glimmer of hope.
Ultimately, I expect New Orleans to win, although they may not be able to cover the spread.
Final Score: 31-20 Saints.
Bills at Ravens (-13), Why Buffalo Will Win, Why Baltimore Willl Win, Prediction
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It’s rare that you see a 13 point spread and like the team to cover, but that’s exactly the case in this weekend’s matchup between the Bills and Ravens.
The no-name Bills have looked awful in all aspects of the game. Not only does Buffalo have the worst defense in the league (allowing 32.2 points per game and a league worst 182 rushing yards), but their offense looks like a high school varsity team. Despite success in the running game, Ryan Fitzpatrick has not looked like an NFL starting QB (his statistics are incredibly misleading as he plays against a lot of soft zone coverage in blowout games).
Baltimore’s defense could easily shutout the Bills and Ray Rice should have a field day against this Swiss cheese defense. After blowing a ten point fourth quarter lead in New England, the Ravens will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. I expect them to release their frustration on the Bills in what could be one of the most lopsided games in the NFL this season.
Final Score: 31-10 Ravens.
Cardinals at 'Hawks (-5.5) Why Arizona Will Win, Why Seattle Will Win, Predictio
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Despite matching 3-2 records, these are two very marginal teams. Unfortunately, one of them has to win and will boost their record to a startling 4-2 mark.
For Seattle, it will be all about special teams and defense. Leading rusher Justin Forsett averages just over 50 yards on the ground while Matt Hasselback has thrown just five touchdowns to go with six interceptions and only 211 yards per game.
Arizona will enter this game with great momentum since their last game before the bye was a 30-20 upset of the Saints. Max Hall drew rave reviews for his performance in that game, but in fact looked subpar in his first career start. The undrafted rookie from BYU threw for 168 yards with no touchdowns and an interception but was bailed out by two defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Arizona has talented receivers with Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston, but I’m not sure Hall is the ideal man to throw them the rock.
Ultimately, the key to the game will be the running game. Neither team has an elite back, but Seattle’s rush D ranks second in football (allowing 70 yards/game) while the Cardinals rank amongst the bottom five (141 yards/game).
Final Score: 24-17 Seahawks.
Raiders at Broncos (-7) Why Oakland Will Win, Why Denver Will Win, Prediction
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Oakland has always been a generous team. Just last week they let the winless 49ers take home their first victory of the season in an ugly 17-9 loss. On the flip side, Denver was one controversial call away from upsetting the mighty Jets.
If Oakland wants to walk away from Mile High, they will have to stop the passing game. The Raiders have been terrible against the run all season, but incredibly effective at silencing the passing game. Since I doubt Denver will suddenly develop a ground game, this contest will come down to Oakland’s ability to stop a red hot Kyle Orton.
Orton ranks second in the NFL in passing yards, and was even able to throw for 209 yards and a touchdown versus the Jets (albeit that came on a less than stellar 14 of 34 completions).
Bruce Gradowski and Jason Campbell will both likely be out for Sunday’s game, meaning Kyle Boller could receive his first start in years. Expect Oakland to pound the football Michael Bush and possibly even Darren McFadden who is optimistic about playing this weekend.
Final Score: 31-20 Broncos.
Patriots at Chargers (-3) Why New England Will Win, Why SD Will Win, Prediction
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In a weekend where all but two home teams are favorites, this line may be the most perplexing. In the first game of the post-Moss era, the Patriots offense passed for a season high 292 yards against the league’s (former) top pass defense. This week they take on a San Diego defense that supplanted Baltimore for top ranked pass defense, but that has a litany of other problems.
Philip Rivers should have a terrific game against a weak New England secondary, but the health of his receivers is of great concern. After losing Vincent Jackson to a holdout, San Diego may be without tight end Antonio Gates or leading receiver Malcom Floyd. Rivers has been incredible all season, but could struggle if Lededu Naanee and Buster Davis are his top targets.
The Chargers will be looking to avoid a 2-5 start, but may be overmatched against this new look Patriots offense. Deion Branch hauled in nine receptions on Sunday equaling Moss' season total and the Patriots found creative ways to create open field for Gates clone Aaron Hernandez.
Look for the rookie out of Florida to have a big game in what could easily turn into an offensive shootout.
Final Score: 30-24 Patriots.
Vikings at Packers (-3), Why Minnesota Will Win, Why GB Will Win, Prediction
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This game all comes down to Brett Favre. The Packers legend will be returning to Lambeau field for a crucial divisional matchup against his former team. A week removed from a 118 yard game, it will be interesting to see how often the Vikings decide to run the ball.
Favre has plenty of offensive weapons from newly acquired Randy Moss to 2009 Rookie of the Year Percy Harvin. If his tendinitis is bad and Favre can’t be the gunslinger we’ve watched for years, perhaps the Vikings would be better off resting the future hall of famer and letting Tavaris Jackson get the start.
For the Packers, they need a win after a crippling overtime loss against the Dolphins. Aaron Rodgers was stellar once again, even with underrated tight end Jermichael Finley sidelined for the rest of the season. Brandon Jackson has been a huge disappointment replacing the injured Ryan Grant, and will need to step up if Green Bay has any hopes at making a postseason run.
Emotions will be running high, and it will be interesting to see what type of impact Favre can have on this game. Expect Adrian Peterson to carry the ball at least 25 times as Favre simply does not look right.
Final Score: 24-20 Vikings.
Giants at Cowboys (-3), Why New York Will Win, Why Dallas Will Win, Prediction
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In an immensely significant Monday night game, New York travels to Dallas to take on the 1-4 Cowboys.
After losing last week’s “Panic Bowl,” Wade Phillips job is on the line. Players have already been usurping the head coach's authority by addressing owner Jerry Jones directly, and Phillips' time in Dallas seems to be coming to an end. A win over the division rival Giants under the MNF spotlight could go a long way in preserving the coaches job.
All season long, Tony Romo has struggled against pressure. That means the Giants ability to consistently rush the passer will be integral to New York's success. The Giants rank second in the league against the pass while Dallas ranks fourth in passing offense making this game the perfect battle of strength versus strength.
If the Giants hope to win, they will need to force turnovers and steal the momentum. Dallas will be looking to avoid a seemingly insurmountable 1-5 record, so the crowd will be on edge. If New York takes an early lead, the crowd’s cheers could quickly turn to boos and the Cowboys could lose their home field advantage. Still, the Cowboys are a talented team who should be playing with a desperate sense of purpose.
Final Score: 24-20 Dallas.
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