Baltimore Ravens Vs. New England Patriots: Breaking Down the Match-Ups
The New England Patriots host the Baltimore Ravens in New England's first game without Randy Moss, and in Baltimore's first time back to Gillette Stadium since laying the smackdown on New England 33-14 in the Wild Card round of the 2009 playoffs.
Needless to say, there's no shortage of storylines in this game.
But what will impact the outcome of this game? How do the match-ups break down?
These are the questions that I will explore the answers to. There's a lot to go over, so let's get right to it.
Patriots Passing Game Vs. Ravens Pass Defense
1 of 7
The Patriots rank 15th in passing yards (222 yards per game), but have the league's most touchdown passes with nine. Of course, that number could be impacted not only by the absence of Randy Moss, but by the presence of the top passing defense in the league.
Although the Ravens are without a couple of their starters in the secondary due to injury, they are still the no. 2 defense in the league against the pass, yielding just 157 yards per game and just three passing touchdowns total through their first five contests.
The Ravens haven't been particularly effective rushing the passer, and have only eight sacks on the season, while the Patriots have allowed only five sacks through four games.
The Ravens coverage schemes tend to confuse Tom Brady even when the pressure isn't getting there, as evidenced in their playoff game this past season. Still, Brady isn't a quarterback that a defense should allow to have all day in the pocket. Who knows, maybe he'll find his open men this time.
Advantage: Ravens
Patriots Running Game Vs. Ravens Run Defense
2 of 7
Despite what we may have expected coming into the season, the Patriots have a balanced attack, with 122 pass attempts against 113 rushes. New England's rush attack could have a bigger impact on the game than many are anticipating. They average 4.3 yards per carry, and similarly, the Ravens forfeit 4.2 yards per carry to opposing offenses.
That's not to say that BenJarvus Green-Ellis will trample Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, and that vicious interior defense of the Ravens, but the threat of the run could impact the way Baltimore plays defense.
The Ravens rank 10th overall against the run. The Patriots will need to live by the adage "pass to score, run to win" if they want to emerge victorious at home.
Advantage: Patriots
Ravens Passing Game Vs. Patriots Pass Defense
3 of 7
The Patriots currently rank 28th in the league against the pass. Even in holding the Dolphins to 14 points, the Patriots defense still couldn't hold Chad Henne under 300 yards, although they were able to force three interceptions. The defense hasn't rushed the passer very well, netting only seven sacks through their first four games.
It doesn't look better for the Patriots this week, as Devin McCourty will be tasked with covering Anquan Boldin.
On that note, Boldin has contributed to an improved Ravens pass attack, snaring 28 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns (which all came in one game against the Browns). Joe Flacco has looked good with 1,115 yards and five touchdowns despite a bad game in week two vs. the Cincinnati Bengals, when he had four of his six interceptions on the season. I don't see a similar performance to that against a lowly pass defense like the Patriots.
Mostly, Flacco has gotten the job done, and that's been enough for other quarterbacks against the Patriots.
Advantage: Ravens
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Ravens Running Game Vs. Patriots Run Defense
4 of 7
The Ravens may only average 3.6 yards per carry, but that's not the statistic that matters for them. What really matter is the number of carries, 159, which ranks fifth in the league. They are controlling the ball and keeping the game at their tempo.
Last week's 233-yard showing for their rush attack against the Broncos certainly gives them a great deal of confidence headed into a road game, where taking the crowd out of the game early will be paramount.
And their yards per attempt could go way up against a Patriots defense that currently ranks 23rd with an average of 4.4 yards per rush allowed. Because of New England's shortcomings at defensive end, Vince Wilfork has been forced to play more on the outside, meaning he can't collapse the holes in the middle like he used to.
Advantage: Ravens
Special Teams
5 of 7
I'm not sure one team has ever single-handedly contributed to the firing of a special teams coordinator the way New England did to the Dolphins last week with two punt/kick blocks and a kickoff return for a touchdown.
Brandon Tate averages 33.4 yards per kick return, and has already broken two returns back for touchdowns this year.
Ravens return men average 21.4 yards per return, with Jalen Parmele leading the charge.
Rookie punter Zoltan Mesko has been serviceable with a 42.5 yard per punt average, while netting 38.2 yards per punt. Franchise kicker Stephen Gostkowski started off rough but has regained his consistency and has made all of his last three tries. The Patriots allow a respectable 26.2 yards per return on kickoffs.
Ravens punter Sam Koch averages 41.2 yards per punt, and nets 37.2 yards per punt. The young Billy Cundiff has also started rough, already missing on two of his first seven tries. On kickoffs, the Ravens yield 28.3 yards per attempt to opposing return-men. While that's not terrible, if Tate can find the lanes, his speed could be a huge threat.
Advantage: Patriots
Coaching
6 of 7
Bill Belichick is a coach who needs no introduction. He's one of the best game-planners in the league, but the last time he faced a highly-touted defense, his team put up just 14 points en route to a 28-14 loss against the Jets. He has taken advantage of his high-powered offense while his defense gets its feet wet, as most of them are still very new to the league. The Ravens will only be the Patriots second true test of the season.
John Harbaugh has kept his team composed under the stress of two nail-biters that came down to the wire, one in a one-point win over the Jets in week one and the other in a narrow division victory over the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers. He has clearly instilled physical toughness in his hard-hitting team, but the mental toughness of those narrow wins and two trips deep into the postseason have proven that Harbaugh is the real deal.
The added challenges of being both offensive and defensive coordinator may make this a difficult gameplan, but in important "statement" games like this one, I'll take the hoodie just about every time.
Advantage: Patriots
Prediction
7 of 7
So the match-ups break down in a dead tie, 3-3 apiece. As such, it's fairly easy to tell that I think this will be a close game to the very end.
In fact, I think it will come down to Tom Brady's ability to engineer a late game-winning drive at home. Without Moss, and against a top-ranked Ravens defense, that could be easier said than done.
Conversely, this could be where Brady shows us the vintage qualities that made him one of the best game-managers in the league, and the quarterback you most want to have on your side with the game winding down.
Prediction: Patriots 24—Ravens 21
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=600 "Post-June 1 Trade Candidates ☎️")
.JPG?w=600 "TO Talks Cowboys Relationship")
.jpg?w=600 "Taylor Heinicke Retiring")
.jpg?w=600 "49ers OC Hypes Mike Evans 🤩")