Cowboys Loss Reveals Stunning Results in Passing Analysis: 404 Yds=176 Real Yds

The Dallas Cowboys' Tony Romo set his all-time individual passing record of 404 yards Sunday afternoon in a 34-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans. It was a display of monumental proportions that I hadn't seen since The Mad Scientist was running things in Lubbock.

But how and why did the Cowboys lose?

Let me start by saying that this is in no way is a dish against Romo's abilities. Actually, Romo can be a very efficient quarterback when kept to a reasonable workload. And I think the same could be said for the offensive line to some numerically significant way. And not to mention the mental war at the line that is more often won when running the ball.

I could write a whole article on why I think the Cowboys should run more. Running wears the defense down. Running is safer for almost all offensive players. Less penalties. Less turnovers. It's usually thought of as a more intelligent style of game, because of the clock management aspect. And there's that guy that averaged 7.3 yards per carry tonight on only 15 carries.

None of the above statements are statistically proven, except the last one. But that's another story.

Today I'm here to prove that 404 passing yards is only 176 "real" yards. Most of the negatives that result in the difference from perceived actual yardages and "real" passing yards are caused by the sheer volume of pass plays called. In this case, including penalties and sacks, somewhere around 60 passing plays were called. The volume of the passing plays alone can be overwhelming for any offensive player's ability to execute, not to mention the increased physical impact on the line..

"Preposterous!", you say. Well let's skip over any more of me selling you my ideas and get right where it counts: The quantified theory of "real" passing yardage.

Basic rules are deductions for any mistakes by any member of the passing offense. I'll keep it simple and explain as I go.

Start with perceived actual passing yards: 404 

Subtract 36 yards lost on sacks = 368 yards.

Subtract five yards for each sack; these are to offset the probable five rushing yards gained for each play. So six sacks x five yards each is 30 yards. Subtract 30 yards = 338 yards.

Subtract 20 yards for each interception, or 40 yards for red zone interception. I think this is fair, since these relate to field position and scoring. So that's 2 regular interceptions and 1 red zone. Subtract 80 yards = 258 yards.

Subtract interception return yards, -30 yards = 228 yards.

Subtract five yards for loss of probable rushing yardage gained for each interception, -15 = 213.

I didn't actually get the exact number on the penalties, but I'm sure there were plenty of holds, false starts and at least one offensive pass interference penalty that would add up to at least 37 yards on passing plays. After all, the Cowboys were penalized a total of 133 yards tonight. And since I called 176 before I added it up, we'll give them the benefit of my laziness.

Subtract 37 for penalties = 176 "Real Passing Yards" from 31 completions on 46 attempts.

For an average of 3.83 yards per pass attempt.

On a side note, 38 plays were run from the shotgun formation.

In contrast, using the same formula for last weeks performance. Romo completed 23 of 30 for 284 actual passing yards. The only "Real Passing Yard" losses in this performance came from two penalties for 20 yards. For a total of 264 "Real Passing Yards".

Please feel free to comment with any positive or negative feedback.

Methods used were a derivative of a formula created from data gained on a fishing trip where I calculated what part of a pond might have the most large fish. The novel like details of the findings may be revealed in a future article..