NFL Picks Week Five: Predictions For Every 10/10/10 Game
"NFL Picks Week 5" will certainly be a big search topic today, October 10, 2010.
Everyone will be looking for ideas on what to expect going into the big day of action. But look no further, I have every game covered right here.
I went 8-6 with my picks last week, which isn't awful, but as always, I'm looking for improvement anywhere I can get it.
There are a lot of games to look at, so let's get right to it.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
1 of 13
Despite victories over the Broncos and impressively over the Colts, the Jaguars took a beating in their two losses to the Chargers and the Eagles.
Maurice Jones-Drew hit stride last week against Indianapolis, and the Bills defense actually ranks worse against the run than those Colts, so the Jaguars could control the clock on their way to a win.
Defensively, they have been pounded in the passing game, and though Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off a less-than-stellar showing against the Jets, I'd expect him to do a fair amount of damage to the Jags at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
The Bills have the added threat of the running game, and though the Jags rate 12th against the run, they give up 4.3 yards per carry to opposing backs. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson could have a nice day against the Jaguars, opening up things for Fitzpatrick over the top.
Prediction: Bills 28—Jaguars 24
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
2 of 13
The Broncos do one thing well: pass the ball. Kyle Orton has looked at times like he's ready for his first Pro Bowl nomination of his career.
The Ravens, however, also do one thing well: defend the pass. The cliche goes that "good pitching beats good hitting", but I think that even though the Broncos will be doing a lot of pitching, the Ravens will be doing a lot of heavy hitting in pass defense.
No Ed Reed has proved to be no problem for the Ravens, and despite Jabar Gaffney's over-achievements of late, the Broncos still lack a true no. 1 threat. If the Ravens can shut down the pass, which they've done well so far this season, it will be a long day for Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos.
Prediction: Ravens 20—Broncos 10
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts
3 of 13
Talk about a role reversal. The Colts are used to being in the Chiefs' current position as the only undefeated team in the league.
People still have their doubts about the Chiefs, thinking that their 3-0 start is more of a mirage than a gauge of how good this team is. Their ranking as the second overall scoring defense in the league is undeniable, though that ranking comes against the Chargers, Browns, and 49ers, not the Colts, who coincidentally rank second in scoring output on offense despite their 2-2 record.
Ultimately, this game will come down to the Colts defense vs. the Chiefs offense. The Colts have struggled horrendously against anyone carrying the ball from behind the line of scrimmage, as they rank 29th in rush defense this year. That's not a good stat to carry into a game against Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, who have been a formidable one-two punch at running back.
Prediction: Chiefs 30—Colts 27
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Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins
4 of 13
The Redskins have been the very definition of mediocre thus far this season, and have a 2-2 record to show for it. They rank near the middle of the league in scoring offense and defense, despite yardage rankings both above and below that mark.
Unfortunately, mediocre won't cut it against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, especially since the majority of their yards and points have been given up through the air, which happens to be where the Packers do their most damage.
Good teams win on the road, and I expect the preseason Super Bowl favorites to show the world just how good they are.
Prediction: Packers 30—Redskins 14
St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions
5 of 13
This was set to be one of the most pitiful match-ups of the year headed into the season. Now, a quarter of the way in, the Rams have already matched their win total from last year, and the Lions are keeping games close against even tough opponents, having lost three of their games by less than a touchdown.
The Rams' hot streak could come to a screeching halt in Detroit today. It's not as though the Rams' two wins came against impressive opponents, either.
The Lions are finding ways to stay competitive, and I think they're due for a win at home. Sam Bradford will have a chance to win but rookie is as rookie does, and though Bradford has been impressive, he's thrown just as many interceptions as touchdowns this season (six).
Prediction: Lions 23—Rams 17
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers
6 of 13
The Panthers couldn't face a better opponent to pick up their first win against than the Bears this week. With Jay Cutler out due to a concussion, the Bears will start Todd Collins, who hasn't started a game since 2007 as a member of the Washington Redskins.
True to form for a Mike Martz-led offense, the Bears rank in the 30s in most rushing categories. That unit will have to step up big-time against the Panthers. Unfortunately for them, the Panthers only yield 3.3 yards per carry to opposing rush attacks.
Nothing says "first win of the season" like a game at home against a team with no rush attack whose starting quarterback is injured.
Prediction: Panthers 20—Bears 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
7 of 13
The Bucs have had their bye week to mull over their humiliating loss to the Steelers in week three, in which they didn't score a touchdown until the final two minutes of their 38-13 home loss. They were exposed by Charlie Batch and the Steelers, despite intercepting two passes in that game.
If Batch was able to do that kind of damage—12-for-17, 186 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions—imagine what Carson Palmer will do to them at home. It's a scary thought for Bucs fans.
The Bucs can't stop the run, so expect the Bengals to start off by pounding the rock with Cedric Benson, and when the Bucs start to crowd the box, that will signal the beginning of the end as Palmer will pick them apart with play action passing.
Prediction: Bengals 24—Buccaneers 14
Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns
8 of 13
The Peyton Hillis train has defied a lot of logic recently. He tore up the Ravens defense for 144 yards, and did the same kind of damage against another respectable run defense in the Bengals last week for another 102 yards. There's no reason to think he can't do the same against the Falcons, who currently rank 11th in rush defense.
But will it be enough?
The Falcons high-powered offense has put up 93 points, and ranks as the ninth-highest scoring offense thus far. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner could have a field day against a Browns defense that ranks in or near the bottom half of the league in nearly every category that matters.
The Browns will keep it close, but the Falcons are riding a win streak of two games that have been decided by a total of five points.
Prediction: Falcons 24—Browns 20
New York Giants @ Houston Texans
9 of 13
This week signals the return for Brian Cushing, having served his four-game suspension. As I wrote earlier today, this couldn't come at a better time for the Texans. They desperately need his help defending against Kevin Boss, who hasn't been much of a factor for the Giants yet but could threaten to have a big day against a defense that yields over 100 yards per game to tight ends.
The Texans are for real, and can prove it again today with a huge home win. The Giants have looked vulnerable all season long, and even though their defense generated a ton of sacks last week, remember that was against a Mike Martz offense that historically allows its quarterback to get tossed around like a rag doll.
More to the point, the Giants found a way to make that win unimpressive with their offense's inability to generate any kind of rhythm in the first half. They may just have a hard time keeping up with the Texans, much less stopping them.
Prediction: Texans 27—Giants 17
New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals
10 of 13
The New Orleans Saints haven't been nearly as dominant as they were through the first four games of last season, but the Arizona Cardinals have just been downright pitiful despite their 2-2 start.
Their 29th-ranked pass defense doesn't have the utility to defend against the multi-faceted Saints offense, even without Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. There are just too many weapons for the Cardinals to defend.
Prediction: Saints 30—Cardinals 10
Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys
11 of 13
Chris Johnson hasn't had much success against top-ranked rush defenses, finishing with under 100 yards against any defense that ranks in the top 10 against the run. The Cowboys have been one of the more stout in the league against the run, ranking fifth in that category at present.
We all know that Vince Young has struggled notoriously when Johnson can't get the ball moving on the ground. It's becoming something of a "Good Vince-Bad Vince" scenario in Tennessee.
Although the Titans feature a top 10 defense, the Cowboys offense could prove just too potent for the Titans to defend.
Prediction: Cowboys 27—Titans 17
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
12 of 13
The Chargers have struggled on the road this season, losing to both the Chiefs and the Seahawks in road battles so far. The Chargers have put up a lot of points this season, having preyed on the pitiful defenses of the Gaguars (that's not a misspell) and the Cardinals.
The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 29th in scoring defense. A unit that was supposed to be much improved has been maligned this season with miscues and poor play calling. Those aren't good trends to fall into, especially against a high-voltage San Diego offense that has done big-time damage thus far this season.
Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews should have no problem ripping holes in the Raiders' 31st-ranked rush defense. We all know Al Davis' history of firing coaches partway through the season. Could this be the game that costs Tom Cable his job?
Prediction: Chargers 31—Raiders 13
Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers
13 of 13
The 49ers are about as desperate for a win as any team in the league. Kevin Kolb is about as desperate to prove himself as any quarterback in the league. Something's got to give here.
The 49ers defense that was supposed to be one of the best units in the league headed into the season ranks 27th in scoring at present, but they face the polar opposite of the explosive Michael Vick, in "Checkdown Kolb" who seemed to do everything in his power not to take a shot downfield last week.
If the Eagles' offense becomes one-dimensional, expect the 49ers to use some of that game-breaking speed on defense to expose them for those transgressions.
The 49ers offense can't afford to be stagnant, though. They'll need to put something together, but it should be much easier for Frank Gore to do some damage against one of the worse rush defenses in the league. If the Eagles put too many guys in the box, Alex Smith could finally have the breakout game we've all been waiting for.
Prediction: 49ers 16—Eagles 14
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