Chiefs-Colts: Injuries Might Make Victory in Indianapolis More Than a Pipe Dream

There is no way Kansas City can beat the defending AFC champion Colts on Sunday.

Uh-huh.

There was no way the Bismarck or Titanic could be sunk, either. Man would never walk on the moon, and if he were meant to fly in the first place, he'd have been born with wings.

Most importantly, there was no way Kansas City would start this season at 3-0, either.

History is full of improbable events, and while the Chiefs winning streak so far this season is a far cry from the most amazing, it has definitely caught the attention of more than a few people. There is hope building anew in the City of Fountains and barbecue for a change from the losing ways that have pervaded Arrowhead Stadium the last few years. It may be a small hope, but is most certainly there.

However, the general belief is that Kansas City is in over their head with tomorrow's game against Indianapolis. With a team that has dominated in the AFC for more than a decade.  They've won less than 10 games in a season once in the last 11 years.  That's an eternity in sports history. 

What's more, they have Peyton Manning, who some would argue is the best quarterback in the history of the game.  His ability to read a defense and call plays at the line is unparalleled.

But if all you did were measure the ability of a team on paper, there'd be no point to play the game.  And there's definitely a reason to play this one out. 

Kansas City has a steep hill to climb against Indianapolis, but they are far from a lost cause.  In fact, much of tomorrow's game works in the Chiefs' favor.  Kansas City has the tools on both sides of the ball to counter Indianapolis—a task made much easier by the growing list of injuries for the Colts.

On defense, Kansas City has been, to date, one of the most effective run-stopping teams in the league.  And while the Colts are anything but a run-first team, the Chiefs should be able to stifle the Colts rushing attack with minimal effort.

That leaves the passing game to worry about.  Granted, that's like saying, "There's nothing to fear about fighting a bear.  It's just the massive claws and huge teeth you have to be scared of."

But if there's one thing defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel excels at, it's attacking the strengths of an opponent's defense. For the Chiefs, that's going to involve locking down Indianapolis' receivers and putting pressure on Manning.  With injuries to Anthony Gonzalez and Pierre Garcon, the Chiefs need to focus on the Colts' three remaining prime targets: Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, and Dallas Clark.

This isn't as daunting of a task as it seems, though.  By placing Brandon Flowers one on one against Wayne and allowing Brandon Carr and Kendrick Lewis to run a bit of Cover-2 against Collie, it plays to both players' strengths.  Clark, meanwhile, should see a regular matchup against Derrick Johnson, a coverage linebacker who has come on strong this year.  This will leave Eric Berry to run deep zone, with the remaining six defenders to make Manning hear footsteps.

If Tamba Hali and crew can lay hands on Manning early in the game, they can start rattling him early and force mistakes—and Kansas City has been good this season at capitalizing on mistakes.

On offense, meanwhile, Kansas City brings the third-best run offense against the 29th-worst run defense.  This alone should play to the Chiefs' favor.  However, this isn't the first time these teams were in the same scenario.  Under Herm Edwards's first year, the Chiefs attempted to run against the Colts in the playoffs.  Unfortunately, Kansas City couldn't adapt once Indianapolis placed eight men in the box.

The Chiefs have to learn from their mistakes here.  Rather than coming out running, the Chiefs can start with three- and four-receiver sets, forcing an Indianapolis secondary already thin on personnel to shift into nickel and dime packages. 

Injuries to both Bob Sanders and Melvin Bullitt have forced former Chief DaJuan Morgan into the starting lineup.  Stretching the Colts defense this way will create huge opportunities for Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones against an already-porous run defense.

Similarly, once the Colts start to lock down against the run, Kansas City should see plenty of opportunities with the play-action pass—particularly to up-and-comer Tony Moeaki.

There's plenty of work yet to be done in Kansas City, but there's no reason their recent upswing (and winning streak) needs to end tomorrow.  A win in Indianapolis is definitely not a bridge too far.