Green Bay Packers-Washington Redskins: Five Keys to a Packers Victory

To say the least, it's been a sobering week for the Green Bay Packers. The events of the week have been well documented, so I'll stay away from retreading on those topics.

Yet, even though the sky is falling for Packers' fans across the nation, the fact of the matter is Green Bay still has 12 more football games to play this season. 

Regardless of the recent events, the Packers have put themselves in a decent position to make the playoffs by starting the season 3-1. Considering how futile the NFC has been in the first quarter of the season, a 9-7 record looks like it probably makes the playoffs.

So, if my math serves me right, the Packers would have to finish 6-6 in their final 12 games to achieve that mark. I think even the humblest of Packers' fans could agree that Green Bay is still good enough to go .500 the rest of the way. 

That journey towards the playoffs resumes Sunday in Washington. Judging the schedule the Packers have after Sunday, you get a uneasy feeling that Sunday almost becomes a must-win situation for Green Bay. 

Here are five things the Packers have to do Sunday to ensure that happens.

1. The Packers defense has to get off the field on third downs.

Green Bay's defense allowed the Detroit Lions to convert on 10-of-17 (59 percent) third down conversions last Sunday. If they allow a similar percentage this Sunday, the Packers are going to have a very difficult time winning in Washington. 

To the Packers credit, they made third down stops when they had to last week. On four separate drives in the second half, the Lions were forced to kick field goals instead of converting their chances into touchdowns. 

On the Lions last possession, their failed third down conversion ultimately lost them the game. Yet if they had put just one of those second half drives into the end zone, Detroit probably would have left Green Bay with a victory.

However, something tells me that Donovan McNabb and the rest of the Redskins offense is going to be considerably harder to stop in those types of situations Sunday. If the Packers allow the Redskins to convert on numerous third downs, sooner or later McNabb is going to make it hurt. 

2. Green Bay has to get back to creating turnovers and limiting its own.

Last season, the Packers had the best turnover ratio in the NFL at plus 24 (16 giveaways, 40 takeaways). This season, the Packers rank a pedestrian 19th in the NFL with a minus one ratio (eight giveaways, seven takeaways). The Packers are on pace to give the ball away 32 times, while only taking it away 28 times, marked drops from last season.

In addition, Green Bay has lost the turnover battle in three out of the four games in 2010, and it's a cause for concern on both sides of the ball so far. 

On offense, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has already thrown five interceptions this season after only throwing seven all last year. I don't think he is necessarily making bad decisions, but he seems much more willing to take risks with the football early on this season.

If he can get back to the safe, yet explosive, Rodgers of 2009, we should see a dip in the offense's giveaways. 

Defense is where the Packers need to make their mark on the turnover battle. Green Bay's defense relies on getting turnovers, and while we've seen flashes—Charles Woodson's pick six last week—the quantity hasn't been there. 

With so many players on the defense either out or hobbled, it will be imperative Sunday for the Packers' to get turnovers to stop the Redskins' offense. 

3. If nothing is going to be done to fix the running game, then do a better job of incorporating the best offensive talent on the field at all times. 

I'm pretty much reiterating Rodgers' comments after the Lions game regarding the offensive game plan. If the Packers are content with the personnel in their run game, then it becomes a necessity for the offense to incorporate more four and five wide sets. 

Get Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones, and Jordy Nelson on the field for the majority of the snaps. By spreading the defense out, the Packers offense has a better chance at moving the football then their futile attempts at the running game.

And while I think it's important to use the run game in certain situations, the way the Packers are set up now they need to rely even more on the arm of Rodgers. Defenses know the Packers can't run the football, but there's nothing wrong with replacing the run game with short passes and dumpoffs to the backs. 

As Rodgers proved in Chicago, he can methodically shred a defense if given the opportunity. Packers' fans are used to seeing an abundance of big plays out of the offense, but as defenses concentrate more and more on shutting those down, the Packers must be content with taking apart a defense piece by piece. 

Expect that kind of defensive game plan from the Redskins Sunday. Last week, they were more then content in letting Eagles' quarterback Kevin Kolb dump off pass after pass. Rodgers will need a performance much like his in Chicago to ensure the Packers put up enough points to win the game. 

4. Rediscover the fundamentals of the game.

In the past two weeks, the Packers have seemingly lost all grasp of football fundamentals.

In Chicago, we saw the Packers commit a franchise record 18 penalties. Many were simple mistakes that professionals, in all reality, shouldn't be making. Examples include false starts, personal fouls, holding, and pass interference. It was a sickening performance. 

The Packers have also lost three fumbles over the last two contests. The first, Jones' fumble in Chicago, was a simple case of forgotten fundamentals.

Jones caught the ball on the right sidelines, yet throughout his run he kept the ball in his left hand. That allowed Bears' linebacker Brian Urlacher to make an easy strip of Jones that set up the game winning field goal. Had Jones secured the football in the fundamentally right hand (his right), even if Urlacher knocks it out it would have certainly went out of bounds. 

Then last week, Nelson was guilty of coughing up the ball twice on kickoff returns. There is typically very little that can go right on a kickoff return, and a bunch that can go wrong. In that case, it's important to make sure the ball is secured.

Nelson is lucky the Packers have no better options on kick off returns or he'd be relinquishing his job after that performance. 

Packers coach Mike McCarthy is a big preacher of fundamentals. While he talks a big game about how to play "Packers' football", there have numerous instances now of the Packers doing anything but. With the injuries mounting, fundamentals from the players becomes increasingly important for the Packers.

5. Stop the running game of the Redskins.

Watching the Redskins last week, it was obvious their game plan was to establish the run game early on. They were successful too, as 169 yards of their 293 total came from the run game.

Clinton Portis will be out Sunday, but that doesn't mean they will shy away from this strategy. Redskins' coach Mike Shanahan has always been a big proponent of the run game, and Washington's backup Ryan Torain has looked tough in his limited action this season. 

With the Packers defenders dropping like flies, I'd expect the 'Skins to try and pound the Packers early and often with the run to control the football and keep the Green Bay offense off the field. 

The Packers are going to be relying on several backups, and with a defense already ranked 24th in the NFL in stopping the run, Washington would be wise in continuing their game plan from a week ago this Sunday. 

Final Thoughts

If the Packers can get a hold of these five problems, I think Green Bay has a good chance of coming home with a victory. Even with the injuries, the Packers are a more talented football team.

That said, the Packers have yet to play 60 minutes of good football. If they don't accomplish that Sunday, it's going to be tough to beat a confident Redskins team in D.C.

I think the Packers struggle again on third downs, and the running game of the Redskins gashes the Packers hobbled defense.

Redskins 23, Packers 20.