NFL Week 5 Betting Odds – Will the Home Dogs Continue to Bark?

As any sharp NFL bettor will tell you, always put a little extra value in home underdogs. For the 2010 NFL season, home dogs are now 16-9-1 against the spread and have won 14 of those games outright. After scanning the NFL Week 5 lines at Sportsbook.com, there are currently six home teams that are getting points. Will the road favorites continue to falter? Let’s take a quick look…

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (+1)

The Jags are coming off an impressive 31-28 victory last weekend as 6.5 point home dogs versus the Indianapolis Colts. Before this past Sunday, many believed the Jags were one of the worst teams in the NFL. They are road favorites for one reason; they are playing the lowly Buffalo Bills.

The Bills are now 0-4 straight up and just 1-3 ATS. Before making the Jags +1 your play, please note that they traditionally lay an egg after playing a divisional rival. Over the past three years, the Jags are a miserable 1-11 against the spread (ATS) after play an AFC South opponent.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Cleveland Browns (+3)

The Browns are coming off their first outright win of the season last week – and yup, they were also home dogs versus Cincinnati. The Falcons are a hard team to figure out. Two weeks ago they defeat the defending Super Bowl champion Saints, then last Sunday were very fortunate to defeat the San Francisco 49ers at home.

Despite their 1-3 record, the Browns have been competitive; their three losses were by 3, 2 and 7 points (in Baltimore). The Browns have been very generous to bettors during the month of October recently; they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight October games.

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers (+3)

After their 3-0 start, the Bears were pummeled back to earth Sunday night losing to the New York Giants 17-3. Chicago’s offensive line gave up ten sacks; as a result, quarterback Jay Cutler suffered a mild concussion. Carolina almost knocked off the Saints in New Orleans last weekend losing by just two points despite being double digit dogs.

The Bears need to improve their running game as they averaged just 58 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. In their last nine games against a team with a winning record, the Panthers are 8-1 ATS.

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins (+2.5)

Despite being 14.5 point favorites, the Packers beat the Detroit Lions by just two points last week for their second non-cover in a row. The Skins notched their second victory of the year with a 17-12 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles and are now 2-1-1 ATS. It is surprising that this point spread is less than 3 points, especially considering that the betting public at Sportsbook.com is already pounding the Pack (91%). 

Considering the Redskins’ defense gives up 300+ yards per game through the air, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers is primed for a big day. If you plan on betting the Packers, bet this one early; if you are on the other side you might as well wait as the point spread could go to Skins +3 as game day approaches.

New Orleans Saints vs. Arizona Cardinals (+7)

Having failed to cover the point spread in their last three games, the Saints have been killing the betting public recently. Last season the Saints had the top scoring offense in the NFL averaging just over 30 points per game. So far this season that number is less than 20.

The Saints will have a good opportunity to get their offense on track this weekend; the Cards gave up 41 points in two of their last three games. However, the Saints usually don’t respond well coming off a victory over an NFC South opponent going just 1-5 ATS the last six times this occurred. Arizona is scoring just 14.5 points per game so if the Saints do get back to their scoring ways, it will be hard to imagine the Cards keeping up.

San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders (+6.5)

When these teams met recently, if you bet on the Lightning Bolts, you usually cashed a winning bet ticket. The last 14 times these AFC West rivals played, the Chargers covered the spread 11 times. Even more impressive, the last eight times the Raiders hosted the game, San Diego covered seven times.

San Diego has been very inconsistent this season registering a 2-2 record both straight-up and ATS. These teams have combined to cover the ‘over’ in six of their eight games. As a matter of fact, in those six games, the average combined score was 50.3 points; Sunday’s over-under is 45 points.

For the rest of the NFL Week 5 betting odds, head over to Oddsauthority.com.