NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread: 10 Underdogs That Will Win Outright
Not that any of our readers would ever tarnish the integrity of the gridiron by gambling on the fortunes of any of the esteemed clubs in the NFL.
But in case you're planning on betting, playing weekly pick 'em, or just enjoy seeing that what you thought would happen turn out to be true because you like the feeling of being right, here's a look at the upset specials coming up in week 5.
We have the betting lines as well as the probability of the upset happening, and of course the reasoning behind the vote of confidence for whichever team Bleacher Report votes for.
So without further adue, your 2010 predictions for week 5 of the NFL.
Saints-Cardinals
1 of 14
Line: New Orleans by 7.
Upset Probability: 1 out of 10 (Not happening.)
I was shocked to see that the Cardinals had two wins on the year. Immediately when I saw this matchup the first thing that popped to my mind was '41-7' and '41-10,' which were their respective losses to Atlanta and San Diego.
It's hard to make a talent like Larry Fitzgerald irrelevant, but a lack of Kurt Warner in the backfield combined with a huge hit to fellow primary targets Early Doucet and Steve Breaston who are still injured make it impossible for Arizona to go through the air. Add in the fact that their QB has been on his back 15 times already this season through four games and it's no wonder that Arizona's two wins were 17-13 and 16-14 over St. Louis and Oakland (respectively.)
They run the ball fairly well with the third-highest yard total on the ground. But they've also got the worst turnover ratio (-6) with 6 picks and 7 fumbles.
Last year the Saints specialty was take-aways, so expect New Orleans to run away with this one.
Jaguar-Bills
2 of 14
Line: Jacksonville by 2
Probability: 2-10 (It's a longshot)
The Jaguars looked good in their victory over the Colts and didn't break when the Colts certainly made them bend. Despite every push the Colts made, the Jaguars answered.
The Bills on the other hand, are 0-4 and with good reason. 31st in total yards. 31st in passing yards. Two different quarterbacks with pretty much the same results. They have one takeaway ALL SEASON. They just traded away Marshawn Lynch so now their backfield is the ageless Fred Jackson and the rookie CJ Spiller.
I guess the point is, if the Jaguars could handle the Colts offense, why couldn't they handle the Bills?
The only reason I could even see this happening is 1) The Bills are at home and with the weather getting chillier that occasionally affects warm-weather teams. (However a cold-weather game would completely play to the Jaguars strength with Maurice Jones-Drew in the backfield.) And 2) A winless team is a scary thing, because eventually they do have to win, and the Jaguars have already shown plenty of inconsistency this year.
A solid win vs. Denver followed by an embarrassing loss at the Chargers. They then let Michael Vick and the Eagles have their way with them in another blowout at home. Then they come back and beat the defending AFC Champs.
So who is this team? Will they play like last week or the week before? Since the line is 2 and Josh Scobee clearly can make a field goal from anywhere on the field, go with the Jaguars.
Even if they lack focus they should be able to take Buffalo.
Falcons-Browns
3 of 14
Line: Atlanta by 3
Probability: 3/10 (It could happen.)
Cleveland is better than their 1-3 record. Yes their passing game is horrendous, but Peyton Hillis is a specimen Tyler Durden would be proud of. They've also been in every game they've played, and they've played some tough teams.
A look at their season so far:
17-14 @ TB (L)
16-14 VS. KC (L)
24-17 @ Baltimore (L)
23-20 VS. Cincinnati (L)
Of those teams, no one is below .500 and Cincinnati is the only one at .500. Their defense is very good under the Man-genius and if you have a good defense and you can control the clock with a good running game it will always give you a chance.
That said, Atlanta is stacked offensively, and proved last week that even if you stop Michael Turner and Jason Snelling, they can still win.
Matt Ryan is looking like a seasoned veteran and it certainly makes it easier to do that when you have Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez as targets.
Atlanta already has passed a huge test this season at New Orleans. Unless they have a lapse in focus or Cleveland's defense plays a picture perfect game, it will be Atlanta in this one
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Broncos-Ravens
4 of 14
Line: Baltimore by 7
Probability: 3/10 (It could happen.)
Denver has had success in the passing game by having multiple above average targets rather than one huge playmaker. Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney have both done great jobs as has Kyle Orton.
The Broncos are also getting Knowshon Moreno back and he is a great receiving threat out of the backfield.
But the Ravens are just a better team in pretty much every aspect and they are at home.
Running backs: Edge Ravens. Ray Rice is an all-around terrific back whereas Knowshon Moreno, who is already not much of an up and down back will get stuffed whenever he does get the ball by the stout Baltimore D, forcing Denver into 2nd and long, 3rd and long, playing right into the Baltimore's game plan.
Quarterback: Edge Ravens, Joe Flacco has a better arm, better pocket presence, and a big playmaker in Anquan Boldin to throw to.
Defense: Edge Ravens. This is a closer battle, but Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs are the closest thing to perfection at the linebacker position.
Suffice to say, the receiving corps is a bit more of a coin flip, but Anquan Boldin is the best receiver on the field. The Ravens should win this one comfortably. The Broncos need to play perfect, no-mistake football to win, and that's close to impossible against such a good defense.
Buccaneers-Bengals
5 of 14
Line: Cincinnati by 7
Probability: 3/10 (It could happen.)
What would the Tampa Bay Buccaneers be without a good defense and a subpar offense? Unrecognizable is the answer.
Even in their championship year, the Bucs were known for their far superior defense and their get-it-done, mistake free offense.
This year's team is a far cry from that, but they have impressed so far. The only problem is, they've beaten teams they were supposed to beat and when they went up against a contender they got clobbered.
They beat a Browns and a Panthers team that both have no passing game to speak of. When they faced a Steelers team that should have had the same problem, they got torched. A team should never hear the expression 'they got torched' when referring to a Charlie Batch led squad.
That said, the Steelers are consistently one of the best teams in the league so we let that blow-out slide and still this game is a long shot for them.
Carson Palmer, Terrell Owens, Chad Ochocinco, and Jordan Shipley are by far the toughest passing combination the Buccaneers will have faced so far this year, so we will see if that 10th ranked passing defense can keep it up or if they will fold like they did against Pittsburgh.
The other problem is that Cedric Benson guy and their 28th ranked rushing defense.
The Bengals defense is also ranked 6th in yards allowed this year, so this game could be a long one for Bucs fans. But with all the passes flying through the air, Tampa Bay does have 6 interceptions through 4 weeks of the season, so if they can pick one off here or there and control the ball it's not out of the realm of possibility to pull off an upset.Bucca
Chargers-Raiders
6 of 14
Line: San Diego by 7
Probability of upset: 4/10 (I wouldn't be surprised.)
The Raiders have looked half-way decent this season, but have had some hard-luck losses. They just look like a team that doesn't have the bounces going their way. Last week a perfect example when on 4th and 16 Gradkowski throws a perfect pass on a game-tying drive for a first down to Louis Murphy. Only Louis Murphy didn't hold on to the ball. And it ended up in Eugene Wilson's hands to end the game.
The Chargers defense looked terrific last week against Arizona and 'Rivers to Gates' is becoming an all too common expression in the CBS broadcasting booth. Gates is the biggest matchup problem and the Raiders may try and go with Nnamdi Asomugha to cover the over-sized Gates since the rest of the Chargers receiving corps is nothing to write home about.
That said, the Raiders offense just lost McFadden, and though Michael Bush looked good last week, it seems like it will be a rough one for Oakland.
However, their defense can keep them in this game and both of these teams are known for their inconsistencies. San Diego for playing up or down to their competition and Oakland sometimes beating teams they're not supposed to.
The game being played in Oakland certainly helps the Raiders' odds.
If Oakland can stop the run, and Ryan Matthews had not impressed until last week vs. Arizona, the Raiders' passing defense is 3rd in the league and can maybe come up with a big play or two that will give their offense a chance to control the clock and keep Rivers and Gates off the field.
It would not be shocking to see Oakland pull this one out
Titans-Cowboys
7 of 14
Line: Dallas by 7
Probability: 4/10 (I wouldn't be surprised.)
The Titans can't throw the ball and it already has and will continue to hurt Chris Johnson. Last week he had only 53 yards rushing against the Broncos.
The Broncos defense is good, but the Cowboys defense is even better.
Both defenses in this game are quite great actually, but one offense is clearly superior to the other one, and it's easier to stop a good running game than to stop a good passing game. Stack eight guys in the box and if Vince Young is dropping back, the Cowboys front four alone can get to him much less if they are blitzing.
The only plus the Titans may have here is Young's mobility, but that's also if Young ends up playing over Kerry Collins.
I wouldn't be surprised to see him pulled at halftime as I believe the Cowboys will be winning.
That said, the reason I put the Titans here is the same reason I believe the Bucs could beat the Bengals. A good passing defense against a team that loves to throw the ball. Tennessee has 4 picks through 4 weeks and 7 turnovers total. They can force mistakes and if they do get the lead control the clock with Chris Johnson nullifying their ineffective passing attack.
Another reason I believe in the Titans is the fact that Dallas, much like San Diego, is maligned by the lack of focus that can lead to losses that shouldn't happen.
I still think they'll win, but Tennessee is well coached and will be prepared should Dallas decide not to show up.
If the game starts to get out of control in favor of Dallas though, even if it's only a 10 or 14 point lead, Tennessee is cooked.
Giants-Texans
8 of 14
Line: Houston by 3
Probability: 5/10 (Closer to a coin flip.)
The Texans offensively have looked terrific. But they have had their fair share of sacks not only on defense where they have 9, but offensively they have allowed 11.
It doesn't take long to think about what I'm getting at if you saw the Bears-Giants game this past Sunday.
The Texans struggled mightily in their one loss against Dallas' strong pass rush. The Giants will bring more of the same and if Andre Johnson isn't playing, it gives Schaub less options.
The advantage the Texans have is playing at home and they have a terrific running game.
As troubled as their offensive line may be in pass protection the run blocking is phenomenal and Arian Foster is quite possibly the best in the league at waiting for his blocks, finding a hole and bursting through.
The reason the Giants have a slightly less than 50% chance at this game is that the Texans pass defense is atrocious. The running defense is one of the best in the league, but the Texans secondary has been dissected all season and they also don't force turnovers (Last week was their first two interceptions of the year.) The front four for the Texans can get pressure and obviously last week that was a big problem for the Giants. But if Eli gets time, Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith could have big days.
The last thing to consider before placing your surprise bets on the Giants is that Brian Cushing is back for the Texans. With or without the juice, the kid can still play.
So hedge your bets on the Giants, but they also should be looking to build some momentum after knocking the Bears off their undefeated mantle.
Chiefs-Colts
9 of 14
Line: Indy by 9.
Probability: 6/10 (Upset special, proceed with caution)
I'm surprised by the overwhelming confidence of the oddsmakers in this Indianapolis team. I mean I know they're playing at home and they have #18 in the backfield.
But week after week it seems like teams are figuring out that they don't need to stop Peyton Manning, they just need to contain him.
Take Jacksonville and the Texans in their victories against the Colts. Peyton Manning had his numbers as did his receivers. But the Colts defense is Bob Sanders-less and we know how that spells trouble for them. Indy also has a very transparent running game so they won't keep you off the field or stop you from scoring very often.
Oh yeah, and the Chiefs are undefeated. And they've got this special feeling to them this year, winning in unconventional ways. They have playmakers on special teams like Dexter McCluster and an amazing two-headed rushing attack in Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles.
They're rushing defense is great, but that doesn't do anything for them in this game as the Colts pass a ton anyways.
That's the only draw-back to picking this as a full-on upset special. The Chiefs do have a nearly perfect team formula for beating the Colts, but that passing defense is the only thing that could cost them.
Run the ball down the Colts' throats. Let Manning have his numbers. Answer him at every call. Break a play on Special Teams. That's how the Chiefs will win this Sunday in a stunner.
Vikings-Jets
10 of 14
Line: Jets by 4
Probability: 7/10 (Upset likely)
This wouldn't have been as close a battle until I found out just now that Randy Moss will be in Minnesota. That's probably presuming a bit much, considering he'll have 4 days with the offense before going out there against Revis island.
But that definitely makes Minnesota more potent and will open the game up for Percy Harvin and Adrian Peterson now that the Jets have one more thing to gameplan for.
Not only that, but Minnesota's defense is just as strong as the Jets if not more so.
They can put the pressure on rookie QB Mark Sanchez and force the Jets to stick with their running game (Which Minnesota is also quite good against.)
Take in the fact that the Vikings are coming off a bye week and have had time to remedy the kinks in the game they suffered from early on in the year and they can take a game away in New York.
The only problem is the Jets have gotten better every week and have some great momentum heading into this game. This will all be a battle of defense and who can force the most mistakes from the other team.
With Brett Favre and Mark Sanchez in the backfields, there will be a lot of opportunites for interceptions, so prepare for a parade of picks
Packers-Redskins
11 of 14
Line: Packers by 3
Probability: 7/10 (Upset Likely)
I'm surprised I put this one that high on the upset list as well. But the fact is this. The Redskins are a very good football team. They got lit up in St. Louis, but against the teams that really matter (No offense Rams.) they have stepped up their game.
They beat the Cowboys at home, they should have beaten the Texans were it not for a timeout a millisecond before the game-winning kick, and they just beat the Eagles in Philly.
They're playing at home where they clearly feel comfortable and they have a great defense going up against a one dimensional offense.
Aaron Rodgers is a terrific QB with a lot of weapons at his disposal, but through three quarters against the Texans they put Schaub on his back, many of which were coverage sacks.
Rodgers is prone to holding on to the ball longer than he should and it works very well to the Redskins advantage.
Add the fact that Ryan Torain, arguably a more talented back than Portis at this point, is now the starter and this has all the makings of an upset.
Rams-Lions
12 of 14
Line: Lions by 3
Probability: 8/10 (Oddsmakers should switch favored team.)
Believe me, I want the Lions to win this game. And I know the Lions are due, and they're at home, against the Rams, and la-da-da-da-da. But this is not last year's Rams. They're actually, like uh, kind of good.
Sam Bradford is looking like he's ready to have a rookie season a-la Matt Ryan. If he had a true playmaker like a Calvin Johnson or a Roddy White this team would be unstoppable.
Unfortunately he doesn't, but the fact that a passing game now exists in St. Louis forces other teams to take that 8th man out of the box, allowing Steven Jackson some breathing room to get some scores and long runs.
Now the Lions offensively look pretty good. Jahvid Best is doing well despite being nicked up, as is Calvin Johnson. They are still using a back-up QB though, and their defense is still terrrrrrible (With or without Suh. Which would make for a good Weird Al parody of U2 by the way.)
The Rams are playing better each week, are used to playing in a dome, and while the Lions have played tough, their run and pass defense still aren't up to snuff, and I think they'll be in for more of the same from the Rams.
Bears-Panthers
13 of 14
Line: Chicago by 3
Probability: 9/10 (Probably going to happen.)
Carolina is without Steve Smith, and their passing game is atrocious. I get that.
But John Fox is a good coach who generally can get the best out of his team (Remember Nick Goings?) and even without the talent, they start to turn it on around this time of year.
The Bears offensive line showed about every hole it could so expect the Panthers to expose more of that.
The Bears run defense is good, but eventually got worn down as the game went on last week vs. the Giants. The Panthers will probably try to do the same as this game will come down to field position and time of possession. They have two great running backs to share the load in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart so while the Bears defense wears down the backs will be resting each other to keep pushing Urlacher and company to the brink.
Let's also not forget that Jay Cutler is coming back from his concussion, which, uh...I guess. I mean a concussion is a serious injury and not only that, Jay Cutler wasn't playing that well before when he had his brain at full capacity.
The Panthers are going to rush hard and often to keep the Bears off-balance and will control the clock to win the game.
Eagles-49ers
14 of 14
Line: San Francisco by 4
Probability: 10/10 (I'd put money on it.)
This is another one where I understand the 49ers need to win. And even more so that Philadelphia just doesn't look the same without Vick. And I know the 49ers played a tough game at Atlanta.
But the Eagles are still a better team, even without Vick.
There's obviously something more than wrong in the 49ers locker room. They must not be buying in to Mike Singletary's tough guy routine (I myself have grown quite tired of it. 'I'd like to thank them for kicking our butts.' We get it. You're tough and you don't like losing. Have a normal press conference for once.)
Now the big question mark of LeSean McCoy playing is what would sway me to the side of the 49ers.
Other than that though, the fact that the Eagles are second in the NFL in interceptions with 6 and the 49ers are tied for first in the NFL with 7 interceptions thrown, (Alex Smith has been a huge disappointment this year after such a strong and promising second half last year) the Eagles defense alone is enough to convince me of their win.
Granted, they've been soft against the run and Frank Gore is a talented back, but the 49ers offense is averaging under 80 yards a game rushing.
Even without Vick, Andy Reid is great at preparing his team, and this is Kevin Kolb's chance to shine. He's got great weapons at his disposal in Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. I just don't see San Francisco getting their first win here.
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