Chicago Bears: Analyzing the Matchups Against the Carolina Panthers
The Bears losing on Sunday night left the Kansas City Chiefs—that's right, I said the Chiefs—as the only undefeated team in the NFL heading into Week 5. But that loss to the Giants wasn't your everyday, garden variety loss.
No, it was a disastrous loss on several fronts. For one, it fully exposed every Bears fan's worst fears, that the offensive line wasn't up to the task of protecting Jay Cutler and the seven-step drop preferred by offensive coordinator Mike Martz.
Further, the Bears lost two QBs as part of the mayhem. Cutler went out with what the team is calling "a mild concussion" (is there really such a thing?), and his return to the field this Sunday is questionable.
Meanwhile, Cutler's backup, journeyman Todd Collins hurt his 80-year-old body too, which may leave Caleb Hanie as the starting QB against the Panthers.
Fortunately for the Bears, this came at the best possible time, as these Panthers are just not a good football team. Having said that, however, the Bears can't be overconfident after last Sunday's debacle.
In short, what looked to be a fairly easy win (is there such a thing for this Bears team, even before last Sunday?) can easily turn into a loss if the Bears don't play a much better game.
Carolina hasn't won a game yet this season, and sits at the bottom of the NFC South division at 0-4. Their minus-41 scoring differential is third-worst in the NFC (Amazingly, the worst team in this category, Arizona, is currently tied for first place in the West).
So, let's take a look at the key matchups in this game, and predict the final outcome as Julius Peppers lines up against his former team.
The Carolina Front Four vs. The Bears Struggling Offensive Line
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To say that the Bears O-line played poorly against the Giants is a lot like saying that play Mrs. Lincoln attended had a disappointing ending. The Bears now rank last in the NFL in sack-differential at minus-14, which is six sacks worse than 31st-ranked Carolina.
The truly scary thing about the line's performance against the Giants is that a lot of the sacks didn't even come on blitzes. Yes, the protection schemes employed by the Bears, which included six and seven men at times, couldn't handle the Giants front four.
ESPN.com's Michael C. Wright had this quote:
“'We didn’t block people. Football’s not hard to figure out,' Bears center Olin Kreutz said. 'They beat us time after time, and we’ve got to get in front of guys and get them blocked. It was man-on-man. There was a little bit of everything [in terms of being physically beaten and making mental mistakes]. But most of them were those guys just beating us. That’s not acceptable really. We’ve got to go back to work and hopefully we can rectify this week in Carolina.'”
So how can they improve vs. Carolina? Well, first of all, quit blaming the injury to Chris Williams. He wasn't playing well at all before he got hurt.
The only positive if Cutler can't go on Sunday is that Martz will likely employ a lot of quick routes, including slants and screen passes, which should take some of the pressure off of the protection.
Complicating matters is that Roberto Garza and Lance Louis are banged up, and are uncertain for the game.
But will Carolina be able to exploit the Bears line like the Giants did?
The Panthers have struggled when it comes to pressuring the pocket, especially with their base front four, so they will need to bring a strong blitz package to this game after seeing what the Giants did to the Bears. Look for Carolina to to bring their linebackers from all directions as well as the occasional corner or safety blitz.
The Carolina Offense Vs. The Bears Defense
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The Panthers have trouble scoring points and though rookie QB and former Notre Dame product Jimmy Clausen had a decent debut last week, you can expect the Bears to stack the box to protect against Carolina's running game and dare Clausen to throw the ball.
Clausen did not throw an interception in their loss to the Saints last week, but the Bears will continue moving Julius Peppers around to hopefully confuse Clausen. Meanwhile, even though he downplays the emotions, expect Peppers to have a monster day against his former team.
Panthers LT Jordan Gross knows Peppers well, and he will also be motivated to stop Peppers, so this will be a very interesting matchup to watch.
With one of the better pair of running backs in the NFL, Carolina should be run-dominant and Chicago will want to crowd the box this week in order to limit the lanes DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have to run through.
Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams is Carolina's leading rusher, averaging 4.8 yards per carry with a good combination of power and speed. It will be interesting to watch the matchup between Williams and Brian Urlacher.
Perhaps the most damaging statistic that Carolina brings to the dance is the fact that they lead the league in giveaways with six interceptions and six fumbles. And we all know how the Bears defense likes to strip the ball.
If this trend continues or the Panthers cannot get their ground game untracked, this could be a very frustrating day offensively for Carolina.
Can The Bears Offense Get Untracked Against Carolina?
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We talked briefly about the Panthers trouble generating a lot of pass rush, though they should have more success against this Bears O-line than the one they played against in New Orleans.
Still, a lot of the Bears' offensive hopes rest on two key things: one, can Jay Cutler play or will his concussion prevent him from suiting up? And two, can Mike Martz make the necessary adjustments to get the ball out quicker?
Even if Cutler plays, the Bears have to get rid of the ball quicker and throw more screen passes. Here's hoping that Chester Taylor gets more looks, as the Bears will desperately need to get their ground game going.
Carolina ranks 20th in the league in rushing defense, so this could be the week to try running the ball more often, especially if Cutler can't go.
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Special Teams
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The Panthers have allowed the second fewest kickoff return yards this season, but they have also faced the second fewest attempts. Carolina allows an average of 16.9 return yards while the Bears allow 22.6.
Teams have punted more against Carolina than against any team in football, and the Panthers have done well, averaging 7.1 yards per punt return to the Bears' 8.5. The key here is Devin Hester. If he can break one, it may be enough to be the difference in this game.
The Hester threat gives the Bears the slight advantage here.
Coaching & Intangibles
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Both teams have demonstrated that accountability will be demanded form their players this season. In a refreshing change for Lovie Smith, perhaps inspired by all the ex-head coaches on his staff, he has benched Tommie Harris and others for performance reasons.
Meanwhile, Panthers head coach John Fox made it clear that he cut Dwayne Jarrett due to his DUI arrest.
For a winless team, the Panthers are still playing hard for Fox, as their effort against the Saints almost resulted in their first win. Still, Fox knows he's on the hot seat, as is Lovie, who actually got a little testy with reporters this week.
Neither coaches are good for sound bites. Smith says the same cliches over and over, and usually doesn't show much emotion while Fox is abrupt and contemptuous.
Ron Meeks, the veteran defensive coordinator, is expected to be given the next opportunity to become the Panthers head coach and he has done a good job this season for the most part.
As for other intangibles, wide receiver Steve Smith has a high ankle sprain and probably will not play against the Bears. The Panthers also have a bye week after this game, which could work either for or against them. If they look ahead to the time off, they will suffer, but perhaps they figure they can lay it all on the line with the extra week's rest to heal up.
Panthers offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson is under fire from Carolina fans for a lack of innovative play calling. His previous experience is in coaching the line.
Final Prediction: Bears 17, Carolina 13
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The Bears may not generate a lot of offense this week—especially if Cutler can't play—while the Panthers offense has been very weak, so we can expect a low-scoring affair. Having said that, watch the game become a shootout.
The key to the Panthers success on offense is limiting mistakes and running the football, while the Bears hope to take advantage of a turnover-prone Carolina team.
Carolina's key weaknesses seem to play right into the hands of the Bears' strengths. An inexperienced QB with poor mechanics and a tendency to lose the football against a Bears team that thrives on taking it away? Sounds like a winner to me.
These Panthers may be 0-4, but they fell just two points short of beating the Saints last week, so I'll pick the Bears in a close game, 17-13.
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