2010-2011 NHL Western Conference Predictions: Who Will Rise And Who Will Fall?
By the end of last season, there were some big surprises in the final standings.
Who would have predicted that Phoenix would have finished third overall for points, challenging San Jose for the Pacific Division title?
We all thought Edmonton would be bad, but did anyone expect them to be that bad? (At least they got Taylor Hall out of it)
Looking ahead to the upcoming 2010-2011 season, I'm predicting that there will be more upsets in the standings, and some suprising teams on the outside looking in once the playoffs start.
Team *
| 2009-2010 Points | 2008-2009 Points | Change from 2008-2009 to 2009-2010 |
1. San Jose Sharks | 113 | 117 | -4 points |
2. Chicago Blackhawks | 112 | 104 | +8 points |
3. Vancouver Canucks | 103 | 100 | +3 points |
4. Phoenix Coyotes | 107 | 79 | +28 points |
5. Detroit Red Wings | 102 | 112 | -10 points |
6. LA Kings | 101 | 79 | +22 points |
7. Nashville Predators | 100 | 88 | +12 points |
8. Colorado Avalanche | 95 | 69 | +26 points |
9. St Louis Blues | 90 | 92 | -2 points |
10. Calgary Flames | 90 | 98 | -8 points |
11. Anaheim Ducks | 89 | 91 | -2 points |
12. Dallas Stars | 88 | 83 | +5 points |
13. Minnesota Wild | 84 | 89 | -5 points |
14. Columbus Blue Jackets | 79 | 92 | -13 points |
15. Edmonton Oilers | 62 | 85 | -23 points |
* In order of 2009-2010 standings. Vancouver (103 points) finished ahead of Phoenix (107 points) because the first three spots are allotted for the three division winners, with the remaining standings sorted by actual points.
Methodology
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As a starting point, I used the standings from 2009-2010, then considered the moves made this summer by the Western Conference teams. Also considered was the relative age of the teams, injuries both last season and also to start this season, and the infamous Stanley Cup hangover.
I also tried to keep it a zero sum total for the point total changes. Specifically, I tried to keep it balanced within the various divisions, since the largest segment of games played comes against your divisional rivals.
After all, if one team wins more games than last year, then someone else has to lose more games. Conversely, if a team got worse over the summer, then you can expect their division rivals to pick up a few more points at their expense.
The zero sum model didn't work out exactly, as there was a net gain of a few points vs last season for the entire Western Conference, but that is ok. There is enough flexibility with 2 point (regulation) vs 3 point (overtime/shootout) games, plus the games vs Eastern Conference, where the Western teams usually win. (Only two Western teams had losing records vs the East last season)
In the following slides I'll break it down by division with my predictions, with notes on why I thought a team would do better (or worse) than last season.
Northwest Division
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Northwest Division | 2010-2011 Points Prediction | Change from Previous Season |
1. Vancouver Canucks | 108 | +5 points |
2. Edmonton Oilers | 94 | +32 points |
3. Colorado Avalanche | 85 | -10 points |
4. Calgary Flames | 75 | -15 points |
5. Minnesota Wild | 74 | -10 points |
Vancouver Canucks (+5 points)
All the key players that propelled the Canucks to the best Goals For in the west last season are all returning, and with the exception of Mikael Samuelsson, are on the sunny side of 30, so there shouldn't be any problems with scoring goals. The bottom six forwards look to be improved as well with the addition of Manny Malhotra and Raffi Torres.
Improved defence with the addition of Ballard and Hamhuis, plus the addition of a full time goalie coach to help Luongo regain his form, should mean that the Canucks improve their Goals Against this season. However, their best all around defenceman (when healthy) in Sami Salo might miss the whole season with injury, so that tempers the defensive gains.
Edmonton Oilers (+32 points)
The Oilers stunk last year, plain and simple. But they also had to deal with horrendous injuries, missing over 500 man games over the regular season. That is the equivalent of six regular starters being out every night. And it wasn't just role players being hurt. The Oilers were missing their best forward (Ales Hemsky, 22 games played), best defencemen (Sheldon Souray, 37 games played) and starting goalie (Nikolai Khabibulin, 18 games played), all three of which didn't even play a full season between them.
With the return of Hemsky and the addition of three Calder Trophy candidates in Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Svensson, it is like the Oilers are suddenly gaining four top six forwards.
And for those that think the jump in points is unrealistic, it is only slightly more than the jumps made by Phoenix and Colorado last year.
Colorado Avalanche (-10 points)
The Avs made a huge improvemen last year to make the playoffs, however they also started to slip near the end of the season. Craig Andersson, a Vezina candidate early in the season, played 71 games, and the increased workload showed in his performance down the stretch. Rookies, such as Matt Duchene, carried the load offensively early in the season and also faded a bit down the stretch.
It isn't unrealistic to assume that there might be a bit of a sophmore jinx for Colorado's young players, and they also aren't going to take anyone by surprise like they did early last year.
Calgary Flames (-15 points)
I can't figure out what GM Darryl Sutter was thinking when he resigned Alex Tanguay and Ollie Jokinen as free agents. Both had previously been Flames, and both had essentially been run out of town.
The outlook doesn't look good for the Flames to start the season, as the top three centers are all injured. Jokinen left their last preseason game after only a few shifts with an injury, Matt Stajan is out long term with a seperated shoulder suffered during the preseason opener, and Daymond Langkow is still out with a serious neck injury he suffered at the end of last season. All in all, it doesn't look good for the Flames, as their offence is centered around Jarome Iginla, and there isn't a playmaking center to work with him.
Plus the Oilers are going to win more than their fair share of the Battle of Alberta this year, which will hurt the Flames.
Minnesota Wild (-10 points)
The Wild added a cup winner in John Madden, but what they really need is offense. A healthy Havlat will help, but that still doesn't make up for the loss of Marion Gaborik (and they didn't score enough even then). They also lost the nuclear deterrent of Derek Boogaard (UFA, signed with the Rangers) sitting on the bench waiting to drop the gloves, so that may backfire on the Wild as they like to play a scrappy game. Look for the Wild to lose a few more games to the Oilers and Canucks this year, as they sink down in the standings. But on the bright side, they might be able to draft some offence in June.
Pacific Division
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Pacific Division | 2010-2011 Points Prediction | Change from Previous Season |
1. LA Kings | 112 | +11 points |
2. San Jose Sharks | 111 | -2 points |
3. Phoenix Coyotes | 102 | -5 points |
4. Anaheim Ducks | 89 | Even |
5. Dallas Stars | 83 | -5 points |
LA Kings (+11 points)
LA's young guys will be better after last season, especially after getting a taste of the post-season for the first time. Adding Willie Mitchell is a huge addition, as it gives them another shutdown D so Drew Doughty can worry about the offence more. Also with another year, look for one of their good young goalies (Jonathan Quick or Jonathan Bernier) to be traded for a skater if the Kings feel they are close come the trading deadline.
San Jose Sharks (-2 points)
The Sharks are always good in the regular season, but they will feel the loss of Rob Blake. Also losing Manny Malhotra to the Canucks hurts as well. Anti Niemi in net for a whole season is an experiment which won't be done until the playoffs are over. During the regular season Nabokov was a good goalie, so Niemi isn't going to be an upgrade there. It is the post season where they hope Niemi can take them farther than before. All in all, I see the Sharks taking another minor step back, as they did last season. But then again, this team doesn't have anything to prove until April.
Phoenix Coyotes (-5 points)
The Coyotes surprised everyone last year. The parts might have changed slightly, but this season looks to be more of the same, a hard working, grinding team of NHL journeymen led by the goaltending heroics of Ilya Bryzgalov, who should have won the Vezina last year. However this year they won't be catching anyone by surprise, so that should cost them a few points. Still a playoff team though.
Anaheim Ducks (Even)
Last year the Ducks forwards horribly underachieved, and they should rebound this year. However, they will also be missing the leadership and on ice performance of Scott Niedermayer, one of the best defencemen of his generation. (Actually, I'd pick Niedermayer over Lidstrom, but that is another article) Look for the Ducks to be about even with last year, not good enough to win a playoff spot, not bad enough for a great draft pick. They need to rebuild badly, and might need to trade a big forward (Bobby Ryan?) for picks/prospects to speed up the process.
Dallas Stars (-5 points)
Stuck in limbo due to their ownership problems, the Stars are going to be worse this year. They have lost aging veterans Marty Turco and Mike Modano, and added some championship grit in Adam Burrish. But until ownership is resolved and they can spend to somewhere close to the salary cap, they are just treading water, and that means they will lose a few points to the improving teams in the West. Look for Brad Richards to be dealt at the trading deadline, as that is the only significant card they have to play in terms of rebuilding.
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Central Division
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Central Division | 2010-2011 Points Prediction | Change from Previous Season |
1. Detroit Red Wings | 108 | +6 points |
2. Chicago Blackhawks | 107 | -5 points |
3. St Louis Blues | 100 | +10 points |
4. Nashville Predators | 95 | -5 points |
5. Columbus Blue Jackets | 74 | -5 points |
Detroit Red Wings (+6 points)
Last year the Red Wings were dealing with injuries to key players, and goalie Jimmy Howard was finally making his NHL debut as a starter. This season, the Wings look to be healthy to start the season, and have added a pair of good players to their third line in aging vet Mike Modano and the returning Jiri Hudler. Combine this improved depth with another season of experience for Howard, and the Red Wings should make up the ground they lost last year.
Chicago Blackhawks (-5 points)
The Blackhawks lost a lot of starters from last season's championship, albeit starters from the third and fourth lines. That loss of depth and grit will hurt them in the short term, even if the newcomers can play at the same level as the departed, simply due to the lack of cohesion that comes with turning over half of your forwards. Still, they look to get full seasons out of Dave Bolland and Marian Hossa, two top six forwards who were sidelined for significant periods of time last year.
The Black Hawks will also have to deal with the infamous Stanley Cup hangover, although the youth of their stars (minus Hossa) should help to mitigate that.
Losing Niemi for Turco is actually a postive in my opinion, as Turco's passing ability should work well with the Hawks' dynamic forwards. During the regular season at least, Turco should be able to do an adequete job of replacing Niemi in terms of stopping the puck, even if he doesn't return to his former glory, simply due to Chicago's excellent defence.
All in all, I see the Hawks taking a step back slightly in terms of regular season points, allowing Detroit to squeeze ahead for the division title.
St Louis Blues (+10 points)
St Louis only took a small step back last season, falling from 92 points to 90 points, but that was enough to allow Colorado to take the eighth and final playoff spot. This year, look for the Blues to rebound and make the playoffs again, led by Jaroslav Halak, their new starting goalie (and Montreal's playoff hero).
Nashville Predators (-5 points)
The Predators are always in the playoff hunt, playing a gritty physical game backed up by a greatly underappreciated group of defencemen. Kind of like the Wild, but with better drafting. They swapped a few pieces around up front, but the key change was the loss of Dan Hamhuis to the Vancouver Canucks as a free agent. Last season Hamhuis was a rock on D, playing 21:15 a night behind rising stars Ryan Suter and Shea Weber.
Due to the loss of Hamhuis and the improvement of the Blues, look for Nashville to lose a few points off their total from last year, but once again they will be in the hunt for the final playoff spots.
Columbus Blue Jackets (-5 points)
Columbus didn't get better in the offseason, which meant they actually got worse in real terms compared to the improving teams in the Central division. A new coach will help, but they need to draft (and keep) better players to improve. Luckily a top pick is in their future this year, as they will finish worse this year compared to last year.
Conclusion
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Taking in all these individual predictions, and remembering that the division leaders get the top three spots, here is my prediction for the final 2010-2011 Western Conference standings.
Western Conference | Points |
1. LA Kings | 112 |
2. Vancouver Canucks | 108 * |
3. Detroit Red Wings | 108 * |
4. San Jose Sharks | 111 |
5. Chicago Blackhawks | 107 |
6. Phoenix Coyotes | 102 |
7. St Louis Blues | 100 |
8. Nashville Predators | 95 |
9. Edmonton Oilers | 94 |
10. Anaheim Ducks | 89 |
11. Colorado Avalanche | 85 |
12. Dallas Stars | 83 |
13. Calgary Flames | 75 |
14. Columbus Blue Jackets | 74 ** |
15. Minnesota Wild | 74 ** |
*I gave Vancouver the nod over Detroit with both tied at 108 points, as Vancouver should win the first tie breaker (total wins) coming from the weaker Northwest Division.
** I gave Columbus the nod over Minnesota with both tied with 74 points, as the Wild usually pick up quite a few overtime loss points, which doesn’t help them when it comes down to tie breakers.
As you can see, there are quite a few changes to the playoff picture with these predictions. The Avalanche are out and the Blues are in, and while the other seven teams are the same, the first round match ups change quite a bit with the shuffle in the standings.
1. LA Kings vs 8. Nashville Predators
2. Vancouver Canucks vs 7. St Louis Blues
3. Detroit Red Wings vs 6. Phoenix Coyotes
4. San Jose Sharks vs 5. Chicago Blackhawks
The once mighty Northwest Division, once billed as the most competitive division in hockey, is a shadow of itself. Colorado regresses just enough to miss the playoffs. Edmonton improves to the point of being in the playoff hunt, which is a feat in and of itself after last years horrible finish. Calgary falls even farther out of playoff contention, while Minnesota is fishing for the first overall pick in the 2011 draft.
The Pacific Division is still home to the Western Conference regular season champion, but this year it goes to the youthful Kings instead of the aging Sharks.
The Central is once again the most competitive division in the NHL, supplying half of the playoff teams in the West, including the defending champs.
Well, those are my predictions for the 2010-2011 season. I'll come back to this near the end of the season to take a look at what I successfully predicted, and what predictions I blew.
Let me know in the comments if you think my predictions are dead on, totally wrong, or somewhere in between.
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