NFL Week 3 Picks: Quarterback Carousel is a Recipe for Disaster

Back for another week of picks.  Boy, have I done poorly so far this season.  With my picks on this Web site, I only picked eight right in Week 1, then eight right in Week 2, I'm sitting at 50 percent for the season. 

Against the spread, I have a whopping 12 right.  At least, there were three pushes in Week 1 alone.  Is it time to change my strategy yet?  Nope, I will always feel like it is best to look at the matchups of offense and defense. 

I do need to re-evaluate my perceptions of a few teams, though.  The quarterback carousel which took place in Week 2 and continuing into Week 3 does have me concerned. 

With the right player, team, and reason, it can be a wise solution like with the Tennessee Titans two years ago.  It took a different type of QB (Kerry Collins vs. Vince Young), a stud team with a strong running game and stout defense, and an injury to Young for it to work. 

There are very few other situations where a quarterback change early in the year yields a successful season.  I think most teams will still continue to struggle despite the QB change.

The Philadelphia Eagles will be the exception this season.  Michael Vick brings a completely different tool set to the table versus Kevin Kolb.  Their team is still one which will struggle for more than eight wins because of poor defensive play and a weak offensive line.  The injury to Kolb makes this a viable solution, though, as concussions are nothing to take lightly. 

An example, Kurt Warner took a few seasons to regain his composure and ability behind center after the beatings he took in the middle of his career.  I'm certain that Marc Bulger's eggs have been scrambled leading to his deterioration. 

Vick has this season to prove himself as he has one year left on his contract.  After this season, he'll likely be gone signing with a team desperate at QB.  If at anytime this season Vick struggles, then the Eagles can immediately go back to Kolb, who is their future franchise QB. 

With a weak offensive line, Vick brings mobility to the QB position and allows them play a different type of game.  Most importantly, it keeps Kolb off the field until the franchise has a chance to fix the offensive line allowing him to fully recover from his concussion.

On to the picks:

San Fransisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs

The 49ers finally found some success on offense on Monday night against a solid Saints defense.  I don't think they matchup well offensively against the Chiefs who look to only be vulnerable against high-powered passing attacks.  If the 49ers can't improve their third-down efficiency, then this game will be over early.

At home, the Chiefs should continue to roll, but the 49ers defense has to have a fire lit under them.  They have struggled in this young season, but we know they have the talent to get it done.  The Chiefs offense needs to learn from the 49ers first two games where they have been good against the run, but awful against the pass.

PICK:  Kansas City Chiefs

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

This game looks to have a lot of points scored as neither defense draws a good matchup.  The Titans are suspect against the pass, where Eli Manning plans to take full advantage with his young and talented receivers. 

The Giants are terrible against the run.  I'm certain that Chris Johnson is licking his chops after seeing what Joseph Addai did to New York on Sunday night.

With the QB change against the Steelers last week, I understand that Jeff Fisher was trying to win a game that Vince Young wasn't bringing anything useful to the table.  With Johnson shut down, they needed to pass and Collins is better in that department. 

That won't happen in New York. 

The Titans should control the game and force the Giants to be one-dimensional.  As long as they can get some turnovers out of Manning, they should not have a problem.

PICK:  Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers look like a new team this year.  Cadillac Williams is finally healthy, but hasn't been effective.  It has been Josh Freeman remaking this team, coupled with disciplined defensive play.  Also, they had two easy opponents.  The Steelers defense will not allow the Tampa Bay offense to do much with the ball.

With Charlie Batch or Byron Leftwich, the Steelers will still win this game.  Defense and downhill running is how they will play it.  The Buccaneers are just not prepared for a team as physical as the Steelers.

PICK:  Pittsburgh Steelers

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings

Detroit continues to challenge in games with their recent comeback against the Eagles, but they still don't have a win.  Shaun Hill at QB seems to be effective enough with Jahvid Best running amok on defenses. 

I see that changing when they face division rival Minnesota, who are also 0-2.  The Viking defense is typically strong against the run.  They performed well enough against Miami to get the win, but Brett Favre's three interceptions cost Minnesota the game.

The Vikings offense finally draws a game where they'll have some success.  Detroit's defense is improved, but they have not been stellar in any facet of the game.  Adrian Peterson will light up the score board and Favre will not have to win the game.

PICK:  Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans has played two close games in the first two weeks.  Not the high-scoring dominating fashion you'd expect from the electric Saints from last year.  I see another close game, but this time against a division rival. 

Atlanta's offense relies primarily on establishing the run and getting the ball to Roddy White.  New Orleans has been below-average against the run, but this is their third straight game against a stud running team.  I think the Falcons can put up points against the Saints, but can they close it out on defense?

The New Orleans offense continues to look like the No. 1 offense in the league.  The loss of Reggie Bush will hurt, but Sean Peyton likes to use Devery Henderson in similar ways as Bush. 

Atlanta's defense has been suspect, but has only allowed 22 points in two games.  That shows that they won't give the game away early, but losing in OT on a long run to the Steelers has me worried.  Until they close a game out, I can't take them on the road against a playoff-bound team.

PICK:  New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are coming off a rough road loss to division rival Cincinnati.  Now they face division rival Cleveland in their home opener.  That should be enough to pick the Ravens, but let's check the matchups anyway.

The Baltimore defense hasn't allowed a touchdown yet.  Against a weak Browns team, I think that streak continues.

The Browns defense has played well in two games, only allowing 33 points, but they have yet to win.  I see Baltimore's offense getting back to basics against the Browns who are terrible against the run. 

Ray Rice should have a field day.  Flacco's numbers will continue to drag, but he should manage to stay out of the gutter avoiding turnovers.

PICK:  Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

The Bills are terrible.  Their offense can't stay on the field.  Their defense is just worn out at the end of the game.  I cannot pick them on the road this season.  Also, the Patriots are coming off a loss to the Jets.  I think they score 50 points on the Bills. 

PICK: New England Patriots

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have elected to make a quarterback change, switching to the rookie Jimmy Clausen.  In the long run, this could prove smart, but the Bengals defense is is a tough draw for a first start.  I don't think he'll have the best experience. 

The Bengals have also been tough against the run, shutting down Ray Rice last week.  DeAngelo Williams will have a tough time making big gains.

The Bengals offense has been quite average, but I expect a better performance against a young Carolina defense.

PICK: Cincinnati Bengals

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

The battle for Texas takes place in Houston this weekend.  The Cowboys look below-average as they continue to beat themselves.  The Texans are high-powered and hitting on all cylinders. 

Seeing this is a must-win for Dallas and their defense is better than we've seen, I like them bringing the Texans offense back to reality a little, but I don't trust Tony Romo and Wade Phillips to bring their A-game after emotional losses.

PICK:  Houston Texans

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

The Redskins are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Texans in OT.  Their offense looks like it can get it done against middle of the pack defenses.  The Rams defense is below average, so Washington should manage some points again. 

The key for the Redskins is finding mismatches down the field.  Santana Moss, Chris Cooley, and Fred Davis need to be put in the right spot to get open.  McNabb is still learning how to use these receivers, but his success against Houston shows that it won't be easy for the Rams.

Sam Bradford has yet to win an NFL game, but he has been impressive in finding little-known wide receivers.    He'll likely continue to be successful against average defenses, but at some point teams will figure out that Steven Jackson is not the offensive weapon they need to worry so much about.

PICK:  Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars

If Luke McCown didn't get hurt, then I think he would be starting this weekend.  David Garrard is on the hot seat for poor play.  I'd say it is a little early for that kind of change. 

Lucky for them, Garrard is the type of player who will respond well to this kick in the butt.  Unfortunately, that won't solve the Jaguars real issues on defense and the offensive line. 

Another quarterback change has come with the Eagles as they start the week thinking Kolb, but change to Vick.  As I said, I like the move of sticking with Vick for now.

PICK:  Philadelphia Eagles

San Diego Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

There is talk that Matt Hasslebeck is on the hot seat, too.  I don't see it.  Whitehurst gives them nothing at this point unless Hasslebeck is still recovering from last season's injuries.  Back injuries will effect throw power and accuracy, but they will not effect how much better a leader and defense-reader Hasslebeck is.

The San Diego Chargers are coming online again and should start remembering how to win.  Their defense still needs work, but the offense is finding its groove.

PICK:  San Diego Chargers

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals

Both these teams are in quarterback hell.  The Raiders recently switched to Bruce Gradkowski who won the starting job from JaMarcus Russell last season, but was not good enough to be counted on for the whole season resulting in a trade for Jason Campbell. 

Well, that backfired as the team seems to respond better to Gradkowski.  At least their defense might have a pulse this season.

The Cardinals, after jettisoning Matt Leinart, are quickly realizing that Derek Anderson is the same crappy quarterback who started on-and-off for Cleveland last season.  The Cardinals have some pieces in place, but until they have an accurate pass behind center, they will continue to struggle against all teams.

PICK:  Oakland Raiders

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

After a rough loss to the Texans in Week 1, the Colts of old returned in Week 2 and are ready to dominate the AFC.  They may still struggle against teams with strong running games and defensive lines, but they will still find ways to win on offense.

The Denver Broncos are still learning what they have on offense and defense.  It won't be until midseason when they truly understand what they have and how to use it.  They'll be up and down all season I believe.

PICK:  Indianapolis Colts

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

The New York Jets are coming off a big win against division rival New England.  They not only had an effective passing game, but they shut down the Patriots offense completely in the second half—and without Darrelle Revis, who came up lame after getting beat on Randy Moss's one-handed touchdown. 

The Dolphins are a very different team from the Patriots, as they are a smash-mouth running offense.  Without Kris Jenkins clogging the center of the line, the Jets can be beat against the run, but only by well-balanced offensive teams. 

The Dolphins will find little room to run the ball and will have to rely on getting Brandon Marshall and Brian Hartline open.

The New York Jets offense has seen two good tests.  The passing game passed in both cases.  I felt they had a legitimate chance to get in field goal range and beat the Ravens in Week 1 had Dustin Keller got that first down. 

Against the Patriots, the Jets passed for three touchdowns and zero interceptions while converting 14 first downs through the air.  Their running game still has me worried as Shonn Greene has not been reliable. 

I think that has to do more with Matt Slauson, the new left guard, and less to do with Greene himself.  At least the Jets will have some excellent film on the Miami defense from their Week 2 win over the Vikings.

PICK:  New York Jets

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Who thought the Chicago Bears would be 2-0?  Not I!  They have been winning with mistake-free defense.  The Green Bay Packers offense will find a way to beat mistake-free defense as they are full of talent in the passing game. 

Missing Ryan Grant didn't hamper them against Buffalo, but it could slow the offense down in Chicago and allow the Bears to play one-dimensional defense.

The Chicago offense has not been too shabby, either.  The offensive line held up against Detroit's revamped defensive line and the Cowboy's strong pass-rush.  I do not trust that it will hold up all season, especially against attacking defenses like Green Bay.  I'm looking for Clay Matthews to continue his punishing of opposing quarterbacks.

PICK:  Green Bay Packers