Henrik Sedin Vs. Steven Stamkos: Handicapping the Art Ross Trophy
Will Henrik Sedin successfully defend his Art Ross Trophy in 2010-2011? Will a young hotshot like Steven Stamkos or Patrick Kane mount a challenge? Or will a previous winner such as Alexander Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby win the Art Ross for the second time?
Winning the Art Ross Trophy (awarded for the regular season scoring title) takes quite a bit of luck. You need to be good obviously, but you also have to avoid injuries to yourself and your linemates. At this level of competition, a single missed game in October could cost you the scoring title come April. A few lucky bounces going your way doesn't hurt either.
After over two decades of the Art Ross being the sole property of three players; Wayne Gretzky (10 scoring titles), Mario Lemieux (6 scoring titles) and Jaromir Jagr (5 scoring titles), it has been won by 8 different players in the last 8 seasons.
Season | Art Ross Winner | Points |
2001-2002 | Jarome Iginla (Calgary) | 96 |
2002-2003 | Peter Forsberg (Colorado) | 106 |
2003-2004 | Martin St. Louis (Tampa Bay) | 94 |
2004-2005 | Lockout | - |
2005-2006 | Joe Thornton (Boston/San Jose) | 125 |
2006-2007 | Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh) | 120 |
2007-2008 | Alexander Ovechkin (Washington) | 112 |
2008-2009 | Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh) | 113 |
2009-2010 | Henrik Sedin (Vancouver) | 112 |
In the last three seasons, it has taken either 112 or 113 points to win the scoring race. In today's NHL, there are 10 players who could realistically put up that many points.
Some are past Art Ross winners looking to be the first player since Jagr to win the trophy multiple times. Others are part of the new class of NHL stars looking to win a major trophy for the first time.
Henrik Sedin
1 of 11
2009-2010
82 Games Played
112 Points
1.37 Points per Game
The reigning Art Ross winner, Henrik certainly has the skills to defend his title, but he would be the first player to win multiple scoring titles since Jagr.
One factor in his favor would be his linemates this year. Last season he was missing twin Daniel Sedin (19 games missed with a broken foot) on his left wing, while on his right wing Alex Burrows was playing through a torn labrum in his shoulder for the latter half of the season. With healthy linemates, especially Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin should be able to match or better his production last season.
In terms of Henrik's own durability, he hasn't missed a regular season or playoff game for the Canucks since the lockout, so there isn't any reason to believe he wouldn't play a full 82 games this year.
Lastly, Henrik Sedin has only once in his nine NHL seasons regressed from his point totals of the year before. I don't expect this trend to end anytime soon, as he is just hitting his prime at age 29.
My Prediction: 82 Games Played, 115 points, 1.40 Points per Game
Sidney Crosby
2 of 11
2009-2010
81 Games Played
109 Points
1.35 Points per Game
Last season, Sidney Crosby showed a new facet to his NHL game, putting up 51 goals en route to winning the Rocket Richard Trophy. This new goal scoring prowess should help Crosby consistently produce points as the quality of his wingers is always going to be suspect unless the Penguins decide to throw all their eggs in one basket and consistently play Crosby and Malkin on the same line.
However, the 81 games last season were the most Crosby has played since his rookie season, and past trends predict he will miss a few more games this season due to various injuries.
My Prediction: 74 Games Played, 101 points, 1.36 Points per Game
Alexander Ovechkin
3 of 11
2009-2010
72 Games Played
109 Points
1.51 Points per Game
Ovechkin actually put up the most points per game of any player last season. However, he played 10 fewer games then Henrik Sedin and thus fell short of becoming the first player in eight years to win multiple scoring titles.
Normally I'd say that Ovechkin is the most talented individual player in the game today, but after seeing him get shut down by Montreal's defense in the playoffs, I have to wonder if his point production isn't going to suffer as other teams adopt the same strategy.
Another factor against Ovechkin winning a second Art Ross is his playing style. I'm not here to castigate Ovechkin or defend his playing style, but he was suspended twice last season for dangerous plays that injured other players. I don't see a winning solution for Ovechkin here.
If he stops being so physical and throwing himself around the ice like a wrecking ball, he won't score as much.
But if he does not stop playing like that, he will continue to be suspended, and the suspensions will only grow in length due to Ovechkin now being a repeat offender.
Also, like arch rival Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin will also miss a handful of games due to various injuries incurred during the season as other players continually whack and slash at him. Such is the fate of superstars in the instigator era.
My Prediction: 70 Games Played, 100 points, 1.43 Points per Game
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Nicklas Backstrom
4 of 11
2009-2010
82 Games Played
101 Points
1.23 Points per Game
The setup man for Alexander Ovechkin, Backstrom doesn't get the accolades he deserves. How many 22-year-old players put up 101 points in only their third NHL season?
However, while Backstrom can score in his own right (33 goals last season), his point production does depend heavily on his linemates, notably Ovechkin. If Ovechkin's point production goes down as I predict, Backstrom's will take a hit as well.
While Backstrom is the second-best Swedish center in the league right now behind Henrik Sedin, he has the potential to be the best Swedish forward in NHL history. But an Art Ross isn't in his future, as Ovechkin should always put up more points.
My Prediction: 82 Games Played, 97 points, 1.18 Points per Game
Steven Stamkos
5 of 11
2009-2010
82 Games Played
95 Points
1.16 Points per Game
Stamkos scored 51 goals last season, sharing the Rocket Richard Trophy with Sidney Crosby. However, there is room for this rising star to improve. Specifically, while he scored 51 goals, he only put up 44 assists last season. The traditional ratio is to have more assists than goals.
With the Lightning improving their top six forwards with the addition of Simon Gagne this summer, Stamkos should be able to pad his stats with a few more assists this year. Another offseason of working out with NHL star turned trainer Gary Roberts isn't going to hurt his game either.
Look for 20-year-old Stamkos to challenge for both the Art Ross and Rocket Richard Trophies this season.
My Prediction: 82 Games Played, 110 points, 1.34 Points per Game
Martin St. Louis
6 of 11
2009-2010
82 Games Played
94 Points
1.15 Points per Game
Martin St. Louis has consistently been a point per game player the last five seasons, but when teamed up with another elite player in Steven Stamkos last season, he was once again challenging for an Art Ross trophy down the stretch.
This year, with the expected improvement in Stamkos and the addition of Simon Gagne, St. Louis should continue to defy his critics and crack the 100 point barrier. Also, for a 35-year-old veteran, St. Louis is remarkably durable, having not missed a game in over four seasons.
My Prediction: 82 Games Played, 105 points, 1.28 Points per Game
Joe Thornton
7 of 11
2009-2010
79 Games Played
89 Points
1.13 Points per Game
Regardless of how you feel about his play in big games, Thornton undeniably dominates during the regular season. He also owns the highest single season scoring record since the lockout with the 125 points he recorded during the 2005-2006 season.
If Dany Heatley plays up to his potential and cashes in on a few more of the opportunities Thornton creates for him, Thornton could put up his highest point total since he propelled Jonathan Cheechoo to a Rocket Richard Trophy.
However, he won't have the opportunity to rack up easy points against the Kings and Coyotes anymore, so that may also affect his production.
My Prediction: 80 Games Played, 100 points, 1.25 Points per Game
Patrick Kane
8 of 11
2009-2010
82 Games Played
88 Points
1.07 Points per Game
A player I love to hate because he scores big goals against the Canucks (I'm sure the Flyers aren't fans of his either), Patrick Kane is one of the best young talents in the NHL. At only 21, he should continue to improve his game in all areas, including point production.
While I feel the loss of depth after the exodus of players from the Blackhawks this summer will affect how the team does in the standings, it probably will have a positive effect on Kane's point production as the coaching staff will have to lean more on the remaining stars. This increase in ice time, even if only a few shifts per game, gives Kane more opportunities to score.
Look for Kane to make a jump to a new level this season.
My Prediction: 81 Games Played, 105 points, 1.30 Points per Game
Evgeni Malkin
9 of 11
2009-2010
67 Games Played
77 Points
1.15 Points per Game
One year after winning the Art Ross with 113 points in the 2008-2009 season, Malkin was limited by injuries to only 67 games in the 2009-2010 season. His points per game average dropped from 1.38 to a still respectable 1.15 during this span.
Look for a healthy Malkin to rebound and improve his production, once again aiming to bring the Art Ross back to its seemingly permanent home in Pittsburgh. In 13 of the last 22 seasons the Art Ross has been won by a Penguin (Lemieux six times, Jagr five times, Crosby once, and Malkin once).
My Prediction: 82 Games Played, 113 points, 1.38 Points per Game
Daniel Sedin
10 of 11
2009-2010
63 Games Played
85 Points
1.35 Points per Game
Hobbled by a broken foot that limited him to only 63 games, Daniel Sedin quietly put together the best season of his nine year career. Overshadowed by twin Henrik's Art Ross winning 112 points, Daniel set a career high with 85 points, scoring at a pace of 1.35 points per game, tied for third in the NHL with Crosby, behind only Ovechkin (1.51) and Henrik (1.37).
Before suffering the broken foot, Daniel had only missed a grand total of 14 games in the preceding eight seasons. All but one of those missed games were earlier in his career, before the lockout.
Lining up on left wing beside Henrik and opposite a healthy Alex Burrows (hampered by torn shoulder labrum last season), there isn't a reason Daniel can't continue to score at the same pace this season.
Burrows is expected to be out until November recovering from his shoulder surgery, but fellow Swede Mikael Samuelsson demonstrated great chemistry with the Sedin twins during the playoffs last season, and should be a more than adequate replacement for Burrows to start the season.
While not as consistent as his brother, Daniel has only once failed to improve on his previous season's point totals in the five seasons since the lockout.
A bit of a dark-horse pick, but look to see both Daniel and Henrik Sedin in contention for the scoring title down the stretch.
My Prediction: 82 Games Played, 111 points, 1.35 Points per Game
Conclusion
11 of 11
Any of the players on this list could conceivably win the Art Ross, but I based this prediction on the stats since the lockout, how the player did last season, injuries and also taking into account how I think the conference standings will look this year.
My Prediction: In the first slide, I used a picture of Henrik Sedin holding up two fingers for a reason. Fighting off challenges from Evgeni Malkin (113 points), Daniel Sedin (111 points) and Steven Stamkos (110 points) amongst others, Henrik Sedin will build on last season and put up 115 points.
For the first time since Jaromir Jagr in 2000-2001, look to see the reigning Art Ross winner successfully defend his title.
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