New York Yankees-Tampa Bay Rays: Breaking Down the AL East Title Showdown

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As the 2010 season draws to a close, pennant races are taking shape for the final weeks, and the Wild Card picture is beginning to look more clear. In the case of the AL East, it's quite clear that both teams will make the playoffs.

This does not mean that this race is of little importance. Quite the contrary, this Yankees-Rays showdown is shaping up to be one of the top September matchups. After the Sabathia-Price pitcher's duel earlier this month, this four-game series is going to be hotly contested, with the winner likely winning the division and the loser being relegated to the Wild Card.

In this article I will discuss the hot and cold players on each team, possible game changers, and the pitching matchups before offering a prediction.

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The Yankees and Rays naturally have multiple hitters and pitchers who are hot this late in the season,

Since September began, Alex Rodriguez is hitting .356 with four HR and 14 RBI. Another player who's been very hot for the team is Boone Logan. Working out of the bullpen, since the All-Star break Logan has managed a sub-1.00 ERA, and did not allow any earned runs from July 20 to September 13.

For the Rays, Carl Crawford has hit .382 since the month of September began along with five triples. They have had a hot streak coming off the bench as well in Reid Brignac. In September, he's hit .368 with two home runs in 19 at-bats, including the game-winner in the Sabathia-Price duel.

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While some players have been clutch when it matters, other players on both teams have been struggling. Both teams have had some struggles in their starting rotation, with a few pitchers' ERAs shooting upward. These will be covered later in the pitching matchups. Each team has several cold players, but a couple on each side stand out.

Since September began, Nick Swisher is only hitting .156 with a single home run. The second cold Yankee is Mark Teixiera, who I can't seem to figure out. He started off very slow, yet got very hot in the middle of the season. Now, September's arrived and he's back to April-quality hitting. A .211 batting average isn't the worst, but zero home runs and six RBIs is not what you want to see from him.

The Rays are not without question marks from power hitters as well. Carlos Pena has struggled to stay above .200 all season, but in September he's hitting .116 with one home run and four RBI. That's not acceptable from anyone, much less a team's power bat. Ben Zobrist has been majorly struggling as well, going hitless in his last 20 at-bats, and having a .157 batting average in September.

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Now, let's take a look at each side's batting and pitching lineups to see where the edges are heading into this week.

If I were writing this around the All-Star break, the Yankees would win here no problem. Now, it's a lot closer. CC Sabathia and David Price remain at the top of the league with their talents, though those below have fallen a bit. Andy Pettitte has returned as a solid No. 2 option, and Matt Garza has been evolving into that for the Rays with a good past couple months.

Phil Hughes, Javier Vazquez, and A.J. Burnett have all been struggling recently, Vazquez so much so that he's moved into the bullpen and been replaced with Ivan Nova, who's been solid so far. Much like Hughes and Burnett, James Shields and Jeff Niemann have been struggling recently too, with their ERAs shooting upward. Wade Davis has performed solidly as a No. 5 starter.

The Yankees have a better one-two punch right now, which gives them the playoff edge, but one has to look at all five starters for a series like this, and as a result I have to narrowly give the edge to the Rays. I would take Shields and Niemann at the end over Burnett and Hughes right now, albeit narrowly.

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As hard as the starting pitching was to give an edge to, the relief pitching is even harder. Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano are two of the top closers in baseball right now, no question. Each team also has great relievers that they can bring in at any time; the Rays especially like to do this, as they have six with 50 or more games played.

Joaquin Benoit and Grant Balfour have both been great for the Rays this season, and Boone Logan and Kerry Wood have likewise been great for the Yankees. Both teams also have a frequently-used reliever that could do with a bit less playing time in Joba Chamberlain and Randy Choate, respectively.

The rest of each team's relievers have all been good as well. Really, the only question mark is Tampa Bay's Chad Qualls, who nearly blew the September 15 game between the two teams.

There's very little distinguishing the two bullpens right now, so I have to consider this one a push.

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Unlike the pitching situation, it looks clearer which team has the superior batting chops right now. Even with Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford leading the charge, it's tough to put them in comparison to Robinson Cano, who's the best player on either team right now. Even with the struggles of Teixiera and others, the Yanks have a clear power advantage over Pena and B.J. Upton.

While Tampa Bay may have the speed advantage with Crawford, the Yankees have Brett Gardner, who's been just as valuable stealing bases and better at drawing walks. Even with Jeter's struggles this year, he's outproducing Tampa Bay shortstop Jason Bartlett easily. As a result, it's impossible not to give the advantage to the Yanks here.

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The bench is probably not going to come into play much. If they do though, the advantage is easily found.

The Tampa Bay Rays have Reid Brignac, who has twice delivered against the Yankees this season with a bit of power from his bat. They don't have much else left in the tank, though that would be effective against the Yanks.

The Yankees have more reserve options, but are Ramiro Pena or Austin Kearns better options than Brignac? Given that none of them are producing much against Tampa Bay, I'd say no and give the edge to the Rays, though it doesn't mean as much as the starting lineup advantage.

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This series will be at Yankee Stadium. Playing in a hitters park, combined with the momentum the Yankees want to take into the playoffs, seems to give an extra hidden advantage to the Yankees that the Rays will have to overcome.

Of course, both teams want to win this series, but given the fanbases there's probably more pressure on the Yankees to win this series and the division, and that will be taken into account with how both teams play this week.

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Now, let's take a look at each pitching matchup over the next four games. The first one up is Yankees' rookie Ivan Nova pitching against the Rays' up and down Matt Garza.

Nova has only made five starts in his career, and his last one happened to be against the Rays. He struggled in it, allowing six earned runs in 4.2 innings. His pitch count is being closely watched as well, so even if he pitched well he likely wouldn't go past the six inning mark.

Garza has been both good and bad this season. He started off strong in April, but his ERA moved up to around 4.30 at the All-Star break. He had an ERA of 1.58 between July 21 and September 7, but has had two bad performances in a row, including one against the Yankees. In two games against New York this season, he's allowed 10 runs in 11.2 innings.

I expect this game to be one of the more hitter-friendly ones, with neither pitcher getting the decision. The Yankees will take this one after some late game heroics.

Final: Yankees 8, Rays 6

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Much like the previous game, this one features pitchers who are struggling a bit.

James Shields has never really found his rhythm this season as his ERA hovers around 5. However, one team he has had success against is the Yankees. He's already faced them five times, not losing once and allowing just nine earned runs in 32.1 innings.

Since the All-Star break, Phil Hughes has a 5.37 ERA and is not winning games the way he used to. In two games against the Rays, he allowed seven earned runs in 12.2 innings, losing both.

I expect the trends in place to continue. Shields will pitch better than his numbers indicate, and Hughes will pitch worse, which will even the series.

Final: Rays 6, Yankees 3

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These are two pitchers that are going in opposite directions, and the question is whether or not the trend for these two will continue on Wednesday.

Wade Davis has went from losing five straight to winning seven of his last 10 starts. His ERA is 3.31 during this stretch, and most of his starts are limited to one or two run outings. In three games against the Yankees this season, he has allowed eight earned runs in 18.2 innings.

A.J. Burnett, however, has continued to struggle, as he has a 6.33 ERA since August. He has also faced the Rays three times, allowing 12 earned runs in 15.2 innings.

Call me crazy, but I'm feeling an upset here. Burnett's last performance wasn't too bad, and the last time the two pitchers faced each other, Davis won in a 10-6 contest. Burnett has to know he's on the hot seat, and he'll be firing on all cylinders.

Final: Yankees 5, Rays 2

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This was the pitching matchup of the year when it happened on September 13. Both pitchers threw gems in a game that had to go into extra innings. Is such a game going to happen again on Thursday? Not really.

I don't need to go into detail about each player, as we all know how well they've been pitching this season. Seeing as how the game is at Yankee Stadium, both pitchers will allow a couple earned runs. Nonetheless, both will pitch late into the game, but Tampa Bay will eek out a win after the Yankees' bullpen doesn't hold up for CC.

Final: Rays 4, Yankees 3

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This matchup will be one of the most enjoyable to watch this year. I can't see any of the games being blowouts one way or the other, and there will be a mix of pitchers' duels and high scoring affairs this series.

Likely, the two teams will split the series, though there is the possibility that the Yankees will win 3-1. If they do, the two teams will be 9-9 against each other for the season, making a possible playoff confrontation that much more interesting.

The AL East race will go down to the wire, and we'll all be along for the ride this week to watch!