NFL Week 1 Predictions: Picks Against the Spread for Every Game
The NFL season is finally here and kicks off on Sunday with a full slate of games.
This is a quick look at every game on the NFL slate, complete with against the spread predictions, trends, stats, and more.
All of the games have a prediction that includes my shocker play of the week. The shocker play of the week is a underdog pick that will win outright on the field.
I will keep an updated record of my picks from week to week and see if I can make some money along the way.
Let's get started!
Carolina Panthers at the New York Giants
1 of 16
The Giants kick off the season by opening up the brand new Meadowland stadium.
They welcome the Carolina Panthers in to town and they won’t soon forget what happened the last time they met the Panthers in New York.
The Panthers hammered the Giants by a score of 41-9. That is something that the Giants will not soon forget.
Carolina is 0-6 against the spread (ATS) as dogs versus opponents with revenge and the Giants can’t wait to try out their new defensive schemes against the Panthers.
Eli manning and the Giants win by two touchdowns or more as this one gets ugly quick.
Giants -6
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
2 of 16
The big news this week is that Dennis Dixon will get the start at quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, while Ben Roethlisberger serves the first game of a four game suspension.
This was a very good decision for the Steelers. The Falcons are very talented, especially on offense, but they have problems in the defensive secondary which is good news for Dixon.
Look for the Steelers to get back to old time Steeler football, running the ball to set up the pass. Dixon has the mobility to make plays happen and I will take the Steelers anytime they are a dog at home.
The Steelers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last six games as an underdog and they are 5-2 ATS against the NFC South.
Steelers +1.5
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
3 of 16
The Lions have come a long way and they are starting to gather the pieces that will make them a contender in the near future, but not right now.
The Bears switched over to Mike Martz as an offensive coordinator in the off season and this move will work wonders for quarterback Jay Cutler.
This Sunday Cutler will put that offense to the test and that will equate to big points for the Bears offense and a blowout win.
The straight up winner is 32-6-2 ATS in the last 40 meetings and the Lions are 1-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points in the last nine games.
Cutler puts up over 300 yards and the Bears devour the Lions.
Bears -6
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Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
4 of 16
This will be one of the better games to watch this Sunday and the first time the Bengals will unveil the dynamic duo of Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco.
Tom Brady and his brand new big contract will look to start the season off with a home opening win.
The game breakdown would suggest that the problem is not on offense for the Patriots, but on defense. They are lacking a pass rush and are very thin in the secondary. This is something the Bengals should be able to take advantage of.
Cincinnati is 26-18-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last 45 road encounters and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in September. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the Bengals will have a shot to win this game in the end. They may not pull it out, but I like the points.
Bengals +4.5
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 of 16
The Cleveland Browns went through an overhaul in the offseason with new management and player personnel. They ended the last season on a high note, winning four games in a row and rushing the ball very effectively. Now they have to try to start the season with a win on the road.
Tampa Bay is heading in the right direction under head coach Raheem Morris. They had an excellent draft and are ready to get the year started off on the right foot.
Tampa Bay is 35-23-3 ATS in its last 61 home games versus non-division competition and the Browns are just 2-9 ATS in the last 11 kickoff games.
Tampa Bay gets the win at home and covers the small number.
Tampa Bay -3
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
6 of 16
The hype leading up to this game will be all about Tim Tebow, although he won’t even start for the Broncos. Expect to see him in the lineup, but this game will be more about the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have a well balanced offense that will keep ball control and the Denver defense reeling all day long.
The Jaguars are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home openers and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 overall season openers. They are 11-8-1 in its last 20 as home favorites as 3 ½-points or less, and they will cover that number and get the win on opening day.
Jacksonville -3
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
7 of 16
As advertised, this is the biggest game in Houston Texans franchise history, but it always seems to be that way when they face the Colts and they always seem to fall short as they are 1-15 in the last 16 meetings.
The game breakdown explains why that number is a bit inflated.
The Texans are a top tier team in the NFL this year and have one of the better offensives in the NFL. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are one of the best combos in the league and they will be able to put up points against the Colts defense.
Peyton Manning will get his points too, but in the end the Texans will be victorious on the field and against the spread. The Texans are 10-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last 16 as home dogs versus division rivals and get the “W” on opening day.
Texans +2
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans
8 of 16
Running back Chris Johnson has promised the fans that he will make a serious push for 2,500 yards this year. The Titans may have just the right offensive line to get it done, as they are one of the best in the league.
The Raiders start another season with a new quarterback, as they grabbed Jason Campbell in the off season and hope that he is the answer to the anemic offense they had last year.
The Raiders should keep this game closer than the experts think. The Titans struggle as home favorites and are 11-25 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, the Raiders have played well in the last few meetings.
The Raiders may not win this game on the field, but I will take the points.
Raiders +6
SHOCKER OF THE WEEK Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
9 of 16
Every week I will have a shocker of the week and this week it is the Buffalo Bills.
In the breakdown of this game I mention how Miami struggles on the road when they come to play Buffalo. CJ Spiller gets the start for Buffalo in the backfield and he will be one of the more electrifying players in the NFL this season.
The Bills are 5-0 ATS in Week 1 and 6-2 ATS in the last eight games in September. The Bills have a history of starting out well, although they have not fielded the best teams in recent years, this is mainly due to a great home field advantage.
The Dolphins have not had much luck in this series. They are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and they are 1-5 ATS in the last six games in Buffalo.
The Dolphins are 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games in September, to include 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games in Week 1.
The Bills are a deadly home team and the home team has dominated this series in the past, going 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games.
Buffalo +3
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
10 of 16
The entire football betting world is high on the Packers as Super bowl contenders and they may be right, but I look for them to stumble in the opening game. The game breakdown covers the defensive holes that the Packers need to make up for in this game and that the Eagles can exploit.
The Eagles have finished at 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last seven games in September. Philadelphia has a good record against the Packers covering the number in the last five out of six games at home and 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Finally Philadelphia is 28-13 ATS vs. NFC North and in a very close game the edge is with the Eagles and taking the points.
Eagles +3
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
11 of 16
The 49ers are coming off a perfect preseason and they are the sexy pick for many experts to win their division.
In Seattle, Pete Carroll starts his tenure as the new Seahawks head coach and he will get the advantage of playing at home for this game. Pete and the hawks are still in a bit of a transition phase and are not ready to defeat the Niners.
The Niners will be able to run the ball all day long against a weak front line for the birds. Frank Gore and company have the ability to put up 200 yards as a team in this game.
The Seahawks have struggled in week one, failing in 10 of their last 15 tries ATS on opening day and they are 1-8 ATS in the last nine games as a underdog. The 49ers are 6-1 ATS with division revenge and beat the birds badly to start the season.
49ers -3
Arizona at St. Louis
12 of 16
Week 1 NFL Odds:
Cardinals -3 ½ (-110) /Rams +3 ½ (-110)
Total: 39 ½ points : Over (-110), Under (-110)
The Cardinals enter this game in a bit of disarray as they switched quarterbacks in the preseason, ending the unsuccessful tenure of Matt Leinart. Derek Anderson replaces him as a very capable signal caller, but he does have a problem with turnovers.
I am going to go out on a limb in this game and say that the Rams are the better team. Sam Bradford will get his first start as a rookie but he has a very solid running game that will keep him safe and a defense that will surprise a few teams in the league.
The Rams have been so bad for so long it’s nearly impossible to find some trends to back this one up so I won’t even bother looking. Rams win this game on the field, but to be safe I will take the points.
Rams +3.5
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
13 of 16
The game breakdown says it all for this game. The Cowboys and the Redskins are a great way to kick off the Sunday night slate for the season.
It will be the first look at the Redskins under Mike Shanahan. Donovan McNabb will make his debut as the Skins field general and they will give the Cowboys a tussle.
The Cowboys offense looked really bad in the preseason. I don’t expect that they will adjust in time for this game and that will cause some problems. Home divisional dog on national television is the way to go in week one.
The Cowboys are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last 7 meetings and the underdog is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 meetings. This game belongs to the Redskins and gets the win to start the tenures of a new coach and a new quarterback.
Redskins +3.5
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
14 of 16
Monday Night Football
I would hype this game up but is it possible to get any more hype? Rex Ryan, Derrelle Revis, and Ray Lewis will do all of the talking for me.
The thing is, the Ravens are a better team. The teams play a similar style of defense, but the Ravens have the much better offense with the additions they made in the off season.
The Jets are 10-24-2 as home chalk in September and they are 3-14-1 ATS in their past 18 home openers. The Ravens are the exact opposite as they have posted a 6-1 ATS record in the last seven September games.
I will take the Ravens and the points in this prime time big mouth battle.
Ravens +2
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
15 of 16
Monday Night Football
In the game breakdown I cite the Chargers missing key ingredients as reason they will not cover the number in this prime time tilt.
Ryan Matthews should be an offensive stud for the Bolts this year, but for a fantasy sleeper look for Dexter McCluster to shine for the Chiefs playing in dual roles as a wide out and a running back.
The Chiefs play very well against the spread (ATS) in season openers as they have cashed at a 16-9-2 rate. The Chiefs have one of the better home field advantages in the NFL which explains the 42-21-2 ATS record as home underdogs. The home team is 9-5-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings and the Chiefs plus the points is the way to go in this game.
Chiefs +4.5
Game Previews For Week One
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Other NFL Game Previews For Week One:
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel Free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com
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