Phil Kessel: Is He Ready To Make the Jump To Elite Status?

When it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs scoring, many believe it begins and ends with Phil Kessel.

For the most part the observers are correct—Kessel is the Leafs main goal-scoring threat.

That said, given general manager Brian Burke’s recent acquisitions (Kris Versteeg, Colby Armstrong, Clarke MacArthur, Luca Caputi) and with the all but certain addition of talented scorer Nazem Kadri to the mix, the Leafs look to have a much deeper offensive lineup heading into the 2010-11 season.

In 2009-10, Kessel accounted for a total of 30 goals and 55 points—good enough to equate to a total of 14.3 percent of Toronto’s goals, which ranked him 13th overall with Steven Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning, finishing first with 51 goals, or 23.9 percent of Tampa’s goals.

Overall, having played a total of just 70 games of the 82-game season, Kessel’s 30 goals placed him 21st amongst all NHL goal-scorers. While finishing 21st overall in goal-scoring is nothing to sneeze at, it’s a long way off what many would call elite goal-scoring status, which comes in the form of 35 or more goals.

Only 11 skaters hit the 35 goal-mark in 2009-10 and, with the exception of two (Bobby Ryan—64 and Alexandre Burrows—67), all of them finished with 80 points or more.

Clearly, given the fact that Kessel played just 70 games last season, he should see an improvement in both his goals and assists totals, especially when you consider that the Leafs/Kessel look to have an improved cast of line mates over last season. With sophomore Tyler Bozak expected back and a much deeper team overall to play for, 35 goals looks to be a realistic benchmark for Kessel in 2010-11.

If Kessel can stay healthy, use his teammates effectively, and continue to develop his goal-scoring instincts, he has a legitimate chance to not only hit that magical 35-goal mark (he scored 36 in 2008-09 with Boston), but he should also have an outside chance of hitting the 80-point plateau—which would be a 20 point improvement on his career high of 60 points, also in 2008-09.

As much as Kessel’s five-on-five play will be important to his success, Kessel’s biggest improvement will likely have to come on the power play where he scored a total of eight goals (62nd overall) and put up a total of 16 points—good enough for 110th overall.

In order for Kessel to improve his numbers on the power play, he will have to play more of a team concept, using his teammates to his advantage, not just looking to shoot the puck.

Simply put, the only way for Kessel—a sniper by nature—to be thought of as an elite player is if he learns to use the entire ice, involves his teammates more often, and takes advantage of his power play opportunities.

For a player that was noticeably out of shape for most of the 2009-10 season, it’s a tall order to expect him to achieve elite status, one that will require a huge effort on Kessel’s part, both mentally and physically.

That said, when Brian Burke made the highly contested trade for Kessel with the Boston Bruins (sending two first round draft pick’s and a second round pick to Boston), this is exactly what Burke envisioned Kessel becoming—an elite player.

At 22-years old, there is still plenty of time for Kessel to get to that elite level. With a little luck and determination he will do it this season.

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