Will Ryan Mathews Gain Over 1,000 Yards?: The Rookie Running Back Report

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It’s that time of year again at the Brotherhood. We are in the middle of the dog days of summer, training camps across the NFL are breaking, and now we release our annual rookie RB report. I enjoy writing these more than anything else we do here. The rookies are always the sexiest, because they have so much upside. They potentially mean rebirth for your favorite franchise, and a new name to follow and cheer on for the years to come. 

You secretly hope the franchise savior is not the next Rashaan Salaam. Or for that matter, the seemingly never ending long line of Penn State busts at running back. Yeah I’m talking to you Larry Johnson. The newbies bring hope to the fanbase and hope to fantasy owners.

Every year rookies go too high in drafts. Sometimes they slide further than they should. But what usually happens almost every season is that a rookie back breaks out during the middle part of the season. They throw up some silly numbers, becoming a waiver wire hero, which leads an owner to make a great run.

Then the following season every owner will remember that rookie catching fire and more than a few will head into draft night hell bent on drafting that ever elusive rookie that you know will break out if you do not draft him in the third round.

Then what happens is all of the rookie running backs become highly overrated and get drafted way too high. When you take a step back and take a look at the odds, the chances of success are actually pretty small. It’s almost scary trying to find that super stud back.

No I’m not gathering everyone around the campfire telling ghost stories about the boogie rookie man; this isn’t a cautionary tale. This is just straight up common sense.  Every year I weed out the trash and find you the cash. Let’s get to it.

Year	1000+ Yards Rushing	500+`Yards Rushing	10+ TD	5+ TD	Notable Rookies
2009	0	4	0	2	Beanie Wells, Shonn Greene, Knowshon Moreno, LeSean McCoy
2008	3	2	2	6	Chris Johnson, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte
2007	2	1	1	2	Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch,
2006	1	8	1	5	Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush
2005	1	5	0	4	Frank Gore, Caddilac Williams, Ronnie Brown
2004	1	2	0	2	Steven Jackson, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones
2003	1	1	0	2	Domanick Williams, Onterrio Smith
2002	1	3	1	3	Clinton Portis,T.J. Duckett, William Green
2001	3	8	1	3	LaDainian Tomlinson, Dominic Rhodes
Totals	13	34	6	29
AVERAGE PER YEAR	1.3	3.8	.67	3.2

Some scary numbers when all things are considered. There are only a measly 1.3 1,000-yard rookie runners per year. How many rookies ran for 1,000 last season? None. Knowshon Moreno came closest with 947 yards, and if you owned him last season you know that he tortured you all year long, especially during the Fantasy playoffs as his numbers fell off a cliff towards the end of the season.

What about a back that scores 10 or more touchdowns you ask? Only two-thirds of a player each year scores that much and only once in the last nine years have two rookies scored more than 10+ touchdowns. There have been four times in the last nine years that no one reached 10+ touchdowns, including last season when Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells came closest tied for seven.

The Guarandamnteed 1,000 Yard Back

1. Ryan Mathews – SD – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
241	1074	9	36	275	1

The only thing holding Mathews back from 1,000 yards is an injury. I had Mathews ranked as the No. 1 RB into the NFL Draft, and I have him ranked as the No. 1 rookie back. Barring injury there will be nothing that will hold Mathews back from getting a 1,000 yards this season.

Touchdowns are always harder to predict, but he is the biggest sure thing as a rookie since the man he was drafted to replace. Mathews is velvety smooth in his cuts, and shows uncanny ability to switch directions without losing any speed. His upfield vision is simply amazing. He is quicker than fast, but landing on the Chargers could not have been more of an ideal spot.

There is some pressure on Mathews as he enters his rookie season. There are some comparisons that are pretty hard to ignore to a certain future Hall of Fame RB that moved to the Jets in the offseason. He has impossible shoes to fill, which is kind of unfair to the rookie.

The good news is that he is set up for success playing on a playoff team that traded up for him. The defense is pretty solid to go along with a good offensive line and a great QB.

Throw in the fact that he is pretty much the only legit RB, no offense Mr. Sproles. Also consider that the Chargers have pretty decent schedule, and that is why he is also a legit top 10 back entering this season. The only concern is him wearing down towards the end of the season.

The Rest Of The 1,000 Yard Candidates

These guys just need a break or two to bust out.

2) Jahvid Best – DET – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
176	915	6	42	364	2

Best was plugged into the starter role as soon as he was drafted. With RB Kevin Smith’s return much in doubt, the Lions selected Best. Best going in the first round of the NFL draft was a mild surprise because of his injury history, and more specifically, the horrific neck injury he suffered when he flipped and landed on his neck. By all reports he is 100 percent recovered.

Best is a home run hitter, possessing blazing speed and soft hands. He is not big and will never be a between-the-tackles runner. Ideally he would have been a perfect complement to RB Kevin Smith, but Smith’s slow plodding style and injuries forced the Lions to move up in the NFL Draft and select Best in the first round. His potential is huge and if the offensive line can finally get its act together, Best could be a mid-round steal.

3) C.J. Spiller – BUF – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
142	658	3	39	340	1

Spiller was the first back drafted in April, which wasn’t a huge surprise, but what was a surprise was the team that grabbed him.

The Buffalo Bills, who have needs everywhere on the field, took the best available player in the nine hole. Spiller is a very talented back who can do a ton of damage even with a limited amount of touches. I know because I watched him torch my Boston College Eagles and the rest of the ACC for what seemed like forever.

He is a legit threat to score from anywhere on the field. Whether it is returning kicks, catching swing passes, or lining up in the slot, he really can do it all. He has to be accounted for whenever he is on the field. His smallish size and his lack of durability hurt him somewhat.

He only averaged 15.2 touches a game while in college and was constantly nicked up. He is best used in space or going outside of the tackles when running the ball. He is quick enough to make people miss when running inside. He is just not built to take a pounding.

The Bills will do everything to keep Spiller fresh and sprinkle him in whenever they can. At least that is the plan. RB Fred Jackson needs to be healthy; otherwise Spiller could be asked to carry the load and that might not be a good thing. Either way Spiller has a decent chance of picking up 1,000 yards. He is very draft worthy and even gets a bump in PPR formats and a bigger bump up in return yardage formats.

The 500 Club

These guys are likely the second stringers with an decent chance of significant playing time if the starter goes down.

4) Toby Gerhart – MIN – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
100	454	4	21	178	0

Gerhart was an absolute stud at Stanford. He was a scoring machine, a very tough runner, and does not get enough credit. Quicker and strong than he looks, he possesses decent athleticism on top of good hands.

Gerhart now enters his rookie season as Mr. Handcuff after the Vikes parted ways with RB Chester Taylor. Gerhart will likely just be a backup to Peterson, who will be an every down back. Gerhart's best chance to get on the field is if A.P.’s fumbleitis isn’t gone. Then the rook could get some goal line looks, making him more than just a handcuff. He is a must have for A.P. owners; otherwise draft him late and hold him hostage to A.P. owners.

5) Montario Hardesty – CLE – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
194	769	7	10	101	0

Hardesty was a head scratcher when drafted early in the second round. As of this writing he has not even found the field yet due to an injury. Part of Hardesty’s red flag baggage is he is constantly banged up.

He does have skill, and he was able to parlay a solid season into a second round selection. Now he just needs to put his game altogether. By the time he finds the field in the preseason he will be way behind RB Jerome Harrison, who appears to have solidified his status as the starter.

It appears Hardesty’s only chance of finding the field early will be if he can find a niche as a bruiser/goal line guy. Otherwise he will just play second fiddle to Harrison who appears on the verge of a big breakout year. Hardesty’s value is directly tied to his ability to stay healthy and actually get on the field, but more importantly it is tied to how Harrison fares being the lead back.

He is a must draft in the mid-to-late rounds depending on how big your league is.

6) Dexter McCluster – KAN – WR

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
31	155	0	30	345	2

McCluster entered the league with a ton of hype. He is dual threat guy, though to small to be an every down back. Think Chargers RB Darren Sproles. The bad news is he landed on a team that is now loaded at running back after the Chiefs signed RB Thomas Jones to back up emerging star RB Jamaal Charles.

The good news is McCluster’s athleticism will get him on the field for his pass catching ability. Kansas City is pretty weak at receiver, which leaves plenty of playing time available for the rookie as a pass catcher.

Look for McCluster to be used in the slot, and split out wide when in the backfield. He should see a lot of swing passes and bubble screens to get him into space but also lost amongst the big bodies. 

If McCluster has 500 yards rushing something went terribly wrong for Charles and Jones. 500+ yards receiving on the other hand appears to be a real possibility. Draft McCluster late, but give him a bump in PPR leagues and Return leagues.

7) Anthony Dixon – SFO – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
124	562	1	8	78	0

Dixon’s path became clearer last week when RB Glen Coffee unexpectedly retired. That made Dixon the No. 2 guy behind starter RB Frank Gore. The 49ers predictably shored up their backfield signing free agent RB Brian Westbrook. Dixon has been impressive in the preseason, getting a ton of action. He has proved himself enough to at least find the field, and would likely be the starter if Gore went down. That is the early assessment as Westbrook has yet to make an impact in training camp.

Dixon has great size to pound the ball between the tackles and the athleticism to get to the edge. Dixon is worth a look in deep leagues. If Westbrook is not up to speed, Dixon becomes a must own for Gore owners in all leagues. Draft Dixon as a flier in deeper leagues. He is a draft and stash guy in Dynasty/Keeper leagues

8) James Starks – GRE – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
88	310	1	27	188	1

We loved Starks heading into the draft. We loved his production at Buffalo despite the level of competition he faced. Starks has sneaky speed and good hands. When he landed in Green Bay we immediately targeted him as a sleeper. With oft-injured RB Brandon Jackson the only roadblock in front of him, how could we not? Since his arrival he has been banged up and has yet to play this preseason killing any chance of finding the field anytime soon.

Starks is a name to remember at this point. Chances are pretty good that RB Brandon Jackson will get hurt and that will be Starks' chance to leapfrog Jackson. Draft and stash in Dynasty/Keeper Leagues.

The Undraftables

These players need to be watched they are one play away from fantasy relevance

9) Deji Karim – JAC – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
0	0	0	0	0	0

Karim was a late round pick. All of the fantasy industry targeted him as someone to watch as he was spectacular during OTA’s. Enter training camp and Karim has already been named No. 3 on the depth chart after starting RB Maurice Jones-Drew and backup RB Rashard Jennings.

Karim’s speed and athleticism have led him to being named one of the starting kick returners. Karim isn’t draftable in 8-12 team leagues, but is worthy of a flier selection in bigger leagues or Dynasty/Keepers leagues. He also has some minimal value in Return Leagues. He is a name to remember in Jacksonville.

10) LeGarrette Blount – TEN – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
0	0	0	0	0	0

Everyone knows Blount’s story by now. He punched a Boise St. player in the face and was suspended for most of the season. He went undrafted this spring and signed with the Titans as a free agent. Blount has had his ups and downs but appears close to solidifying the No. 3 spot on Tennessee depth chart.

He has great size and uses it well. He is quicker than fast but shows good agility for a big man. Blount is worth a look in deep Dynasty leagues. He is waiver wire material and his value directly hinges on RBs Chris Johnson and Javon Ringer.

The Practice Squad

These guys will likely get cut, or be put on the practice squad.

11) Jonathan Dwyer – PIT – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
111	467	6	3	17	0

I’m not going to lie; I loved Dwyer heading into the draft, and was shocked at how much he slid in the draft. I had him rated as one of the top five backs in the rookie class. Landing in Pittsburgh should have been an ideal situation for him as a backup to RB Rashard Mendenhall.

Instead he has been struggling with a shoulder injury and has yet to appear in a game this preseason. Dwyer is on the cusp of being on the chopping block as we approach the cut down date. If Dwyer can show something he could have some value to the Steelers. His value in fantasy on the other hand is waiver wire in all leagues. I wouldn’t even draft him in Dynasty/Keeper leagues unless it is a deep league where you can stash him.

12) Joe McKnight – NYJ – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
112	456	3	13	88	0

McKnight was drafted by the Jets in the fourth round. He was highly productive during his career at USC, but he was always playing in a committee. McKnight looked like he was in the perfect spot, with the chance to have a year to learn under RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and then be the eventual backup to RB Shonn Greene.

This preseason has been a nightmare for the rookie, as he struggled mightily grasping the offense. He has struggled in every aspect of the game and his play has been so bad that he also very well could be the chopping block as well.

13) Charles Scott – PHI – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
60	276	0	41	337	1

Scott was drafted out of LSU to complement the smaller RB LeSean McCoy with his good size at 5’11″ 238 lbs. Philly was hoping to pair him up with RB Mike Bell, but Scott has done nothing in camp to impress the Eagles coaching staff. Scott now appears to be on the outside looking in for a roster spot.

He could be put on the practice squad if he doesn’t get picked up by another team. He could just be the wrong fit for the Eagles' scheme, or just hasn’t picked up the offense. We will see on cut down day. He is nothing but waiver wire fodder.

Already On The I.R.

14) Ben Tate – HOU – RB

RUSH ATT	RUSH YDS	RUSH TD	REC	REC YDS	REC TD
190	880	8	8	105	0

Tate’s season came to an early end when he broke his ankle. He has been put on the I.R. and is out for the season. Tate has no value except in Dynasty leagues. His value will be directly tied to RB Arian Foster and his play this season. Tate is still a top five-eight pick in Dynasty league's rookie drafts. This was not a deep year for talent on offense.

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