2010-2011 Green Bay Packers Preview: Offense

Intro:

What a turbulent past three off-seasons it has been for the Green Bay Packers. The end of the magical 13-3 ,2007 season was bittersweet to say the least. Brett Favre, like he so often does, dashed the hopes of all Packer fans cowboy style with a simple thrust of his arm. Subsequently ending with a 47 yard Giant field goal in over time that sent them to the Super-bowl to face the immortal Patriots. The rest as they say is history.

And so began “The Summer of Favre”, as I like to call it. I don’t believe there was a day that went by that summer that was void of ESPN coverage of Favre’s little fiasco going on with Packers management. He believed he was bigger than the team and in many respects he had the right to, but the organization was firm on moving on with Aaron Rodgers ( Who has gone on to prove that management was spot on).

Then the unthinkable happened, the Packers shipped there long time starter off to the Jets, for nothing more than a conditional draft pick. Fast forward through the 2008-2009 season which ended in bitter discontent for Packer fans onto last season which, if nothing else is an indicator of where the organization is heading: Up, up and away.

After ending last season on a tear (7-1 in the last 8 games) and eventually ending with a record of 11-5, the Packers looked poised to make a deep playoff run. Their dreams would quickly fade as Kurt Warner proceeded to have one of the most magnificent playoff games I’ve ever had the pleasure of watching. It was one for the ages and it ended with the Packers on the wrong side of a 51-45 OT victory. Now here we are two weeks into the 2010-2011 NFL preseason and all Packer fans and players alike have the same thing in mind. The Lombardi Trophy.

Offense:

QB: Now lets get right into it. There is no denying that the Packers have one of the most dynamic, explosive, and legitimate offenses in the league heading into this season and it all starts with the guy behind center. Aaron Rodgers. There is not enough good things I could say about this kid. He’s the definition and epitome of a “Great Quarterback”. Not only is he capable of making plays with his arm, but what really sets him apart is his ability to recognize an opening and make a play with his feet. As far as intelligence for the game goes, I already have him in the top five quarterbacks in the entire league, which is quite a big deal considering he’s only started two NFL seasons. Statistically speaking though, no one has ever had a better start to their NFL career than this former 1^st round pick from Cal.

2008-2009 Statistics- Yards: 4,038 Touchdowns: 27 Interceptions: 13 QB Rating: 93.8

2009-2010 Statistics- Yards: 4,434 Touchdowns: 30 Interceptions: 7 QB Rating: 103.2

Does anyone else see the superstar like numbers here. I see a clear trend of improvement in these numbers and its not a long shot to think that that should continue this season. Especially considering that the offensive line should be much improved and the emergence of Jermichael Finley gives him even more weapons that he already has. I remember a big criticism of Aaron Rodgers before he became the starter was whether or not he would be able to last an entire season. 32 for 32 is good enough for me, not to mention he was sacked 50 times last year. Any quarterback that could survive that type of punishment throughout a long grueling season definitely has my respect. Yet what really intrigues me about Rodgers is his natural tendency to flourish in the toughest most crucial moments of the game. Check out these situational stats.

 In the Redzone (Career)- Completion%: 62.1 Yards: 641 Touchdowns: 38 Interceptions: 0

 On 3^rd Down (Career)- Completion%: 64.5 Yards: 3067 Touchdowns: 28 Interceptions: 6

It is numbers like these that tell the real story of what a great quarterback Is made of. Yet this is not to say that Rodgers does not have room to improve. He has tended to hold on to the ball way too long in attempts of extending the play but I believe that that tendency will wear away as he gets more and more snaps in the NFL. Other than that though, I really can't knock him on any other facet of his game, he really is that good. I am aware that he still has yet to win a division crown or win a playoff game for that matter, but I think its only a matter of time before Aaron Rodgers becomes the undisputable best quarterback in the NFL. The only real question that is left is just how much time it is going to take. I believe, barring any serious injury, that that time is now.

Predictions- Yards: 4,650 Touchdowns: 35+ Interceptions: 10 QB Rating: 105.5 Awards: MVP

RB: Now we may not have the most dominant running game in the league, let alone the conference, but in a league where running the ball by committee has become the norm, Ryan Grant for the past three seasons has shown to be quite a reliable every down back that has a knack for reeling off big runs in the latter part of the season. Since Grant has been instilled as the starting running back for this Packer organization he has been the sole contributor of yards on the ground. No he doesn’t have the speed of a Chris Johnson. No he doesn’t have the elusiveness of an Adrian Peterson. And no he doesn’t bring much to the screen game, but he has been a sufficiently adequate compliment to our deadly passing game. Simply put, he has done more than enough to give the Packers a legitimate balance on offense.

2007-2009 Statistics- Attempts: 594 Yards: 2,159 Average: 3.63 yards/rush Touchdowns: 12

2009-2010 Statistics- Attempts: 282 Yards: 1,253 Average: 4.44 yards/rush Touchdowns: 11

Grant is also a model for ball security. Since becoming starter he has only fumbled 6 times in 37 starts. Which is one of the stats that is revealing of Ryan Grant as a running back. He fits into the paradigm of the “Old School” style running back. Nothing flashy, just tough, hard nose running that is efficient in picking up positive yardage. Last year, Grant had a career year. Posting career bests in both yardage and touchdowns. If he could continue to give the Packers anywhere from 4.0 to 4.5 yards/carry while maintaining great ball security he has a shot at having an absolutely outstanding season for this very young Packers team.

Predictions- Attempts: 270 Yards: 1,175 Average: 4.36 yards/carry Touchdowns: 12

WR: This group by far has the most abundance of talent out of any other position group on our team as well as in the NFL. Allow me to start with one of the best young receivers in the game in Greg Jennings. Jennings has proven to be a reliable target over the past four seasons and has shown that he is one of the top dogs in the league as far as yards after the catch go. With a career average of 16.08 yards/catch, Jennings has big play capability written all over him.

2008-2009 Statistics- Receptions: 80 Yards: 1,292 Touchdowns: 9

2009-2010 Statistics- Receptions: 68 Yards: 1,113 Touchdowns: 4

 Although Jennings had a down year last season, he proved to be the real thing, turning in a phenomenal performance in the Wild Card round against the Cardinals. With 8 catches, 130 yards, and 1 TD catch that will stay etched in every packer fans memory for life, Jennings definitely validated his right to be called an elite receiver. Throw in the fact that Jennings leads the league with 21 catches for over 40 yards over the past three seasons and its easy to see that Rodgers and Jennings are going to be a big play threat for years to come.

Predictions- Receptions: 75 Yards: 1,235 Touchdowns: 8

This young stud may lead the way for this pack of talented receivers, but it is the man from Alcorn state lining up on the other side of him that makes this receiving core as deadly as any other in the league, none other than Donald Driver. Since his installation as a starting wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers, Donald Driver has been the model for consistency. Seven of the past eight years, Donald Driver has caught at least 70 balls for at least 1000 yards. If that isn’t consistent then I don’t know what is. The only question regarding Driver is when will father time finally catch up to this 35 year old athlete? There are clearly no indications that Driver will see a huge drop-off in productivity this year, but only time will tell. Driver’s stats pose a very compelling argument of whether or not he is the best receiver in Green Bay history, the only thing missing from his storied career is a super bowl ring.

2009-2010 Statistics- Receptions: 70 Yards: 1,061 Touchdowns: 6

Predictions- Receptions: 72 Yards: 1,115 Touchdowns: 8

Rounding out this sensational group are James Jones and Jordy Nelson. It is very likely that one of these two young receivers will fill the shoes of Driver once his playing days are done, quite a comforting thought to many Packer fans alike. Jones and Nelson both bring great fundamentals to the table. Both are above average route runners, with the ability to makes plays after the catch, a novelty in Green Bay. They have both proven to be reliable slot receivers in big moments, especially when most of the attention is on Jennings and Driver on the outside. What I really like about both these young guys though is that they know their role on this team, they both bring as much as they can to the table each and every game, in hopes of helping the team to win.

2009-2010 Statistics (Combined)- Receptions: 54 Yards: 760 Touchdowns: 7 Yards/Catch: 14.0

Predictions (Combined)- Receptions: 70 Yards: 980 Touchdowns: 9

With yet another year to get comfortable with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, I am expecting big things from this group. They will likely be the bulk of our offensive production and are capable of winning a game by themselves. With all the weapons that Rodgers has to choose from, it is hard to tell whom will arise as his favorite target, but I got my money on the budding star of the next offensive group: Tight end.

TE: This ladies and gentlemen is really what takes the Packers offense from really really good to utterly unstoppable. If you haven’t heard by now, there is a young tight end who was drafted out of Texas making a name for himself as the next big thing. He goes by the name of Jermichael Finley and over the last season has proved to be quite a formidable foe for defensive backs and linebackers alike.

He fit’s the mold of Antonio Gates and is a plain out beast on the field. With a 6 feet 5 inches, 247 pound frame, Finley is a rare breed of tight end. A mixture of pure athleticism and uncanny hands has this 23 year old shooting right up fantasy football charts all throughout the country. Although I am growing tired of this all too common cliché being used to define Finely, “Too big for defensive backs, too fast for linebackers” it really sums this kid up. What he lacks in the blocking game, he more than makes up for in his red-zone productivity and big play capability. He will quickly rise as the biggest red-zone target on this team and perhaps even the league. With the intelligence of Rodgers and the leaping ability of Finley it is hard to see any team stopping them once they get inside the ten yard line.

If you are looking for proof, you need not look any further than Finley’s most recent game, which also happened to be the biggest one of his life. Posting a Packer playoff record, 159 receiving yards on only six catches, one being for a touchdown. I expect HUGE things from Finley this season and all indications are that he will deliver.

2009-2010 Statistics (10 Starts) - Receptions: 55 Yards: 676 Touchdowns: 5

Predictions- Receptions: 75 Yards: 1,050 Touchdowns: 12

No doubt Finley will get the majority of the snaps this season but the Packers also have a capable back up in Donald Lee. Even though his numbers have fallen each of the past three seasons, his biggest asset to us will be his run blocking and pass protection when we run two tight end sets. He may not be the physical monster that Finley is but he is sure capable of catching a few balls and making a few blocks.

OL: On to the biggest question mark heading into the Packers 2010 season. The tumultuous offensive line. Even though both Aaron Rodgers and Ryan Grant put up great numbers last season, a big part of our overall success will rely heavily on the guys up front. Yet I have great confidence that not only will our line be vastly improved this season but I think it has a real chance at being one of the better groups in all of football.

The first 8 weeks of last season was a living hell for Rodgers and company. We lost both our veteran tackles early on and from there things were getting ugly. Making things worse, we also lost our starting center, Jason Spitz, for the season after Week 5. At this point there was quite a bit of shuffling going on in the offensive line. We had a rookie starting at left tackle, T.J. Lang (who actually had stretches of great work) and a over-hyped athlete at right tackle in Allen Barbre. Every time Barbre was on the field he was missing blocks and looking like he belonged on the practice squad. As for Lang he did as well as a 7^th round draftee thrown into the starting position can do, as far as I’m concerned. Before anyone knew it, we were sitting at 4-4 at the halfway mark of the season, with a total of 37 sacks given up.

Our biggest problem was our lack of continuity on the line, by this time McCarthy had tried a number of variations with what he had left and they all seemed to fail miserably. Then comes the signing of the season in my opinion. The long time Packer faithful right tackle, Mark Tauscher, was finally ready to suit up after spending half the season rehabbing a surgically repaired knee. Once Tauscher was inserted into the starting line up the offensive line looked to be much improved, with the return of Chad Clifton from injury at left tackle soon following. Once our veteran tackles were in place the line seemed to finally come together, only rendering 13 sacks for the remainder of the season.

I believe this huge improvement in the middle of the season was an integral part of us finishing the way we did. Now with the drafting of Bryan Bulaga and the experience gained by T.J. Lang, our tackle problems seem to be a distant memory. With both Clifton and Tauscher resigning I believe our line has the necessary talent and depth to hold up for the long haul of the season. Unless our line gets completely demolished by injuries again, I believe this unit is more than capable of providing Rodgers with ample time in the pocket, not to mention the ability to open holes up in the middle for Grant.

Our guard and center situation is much less complicated. At right guard, we have perhaps our best offensive lineman in Josh Sitton and lining up on the other side of him is a very capable player in Daryn Colledge. Jason Spitz and Scott Wells will see most of their snaps coming at center, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them playing quite a few snaps at both guard positions at some point or another during the course of the season. Together and healthy I feel very confident in this group. They possess the talent, depth, and experience to get us to the Super Bowl, let’s just hope they also possess the will power and resolve to bring it each and every week.

Projected Starting Lineup- LT: Chad Clifton LG: Daryn Colledge C: Scott Wells

RG: Josh Sitton RT: Mark Tauscher

Backups- Guards: Bryan Bulaga, T.J. Lang, Allen Barbre, Nick McDonald

Tackles: Bryan Bulaga, T.J. Lang, Breno Giacomini

Centers: Jason Spitz, Evan Dietrich-Smith

                                                                                                                                             Projected amount of sacks: 30

Overall Impression: After looking at this offense from top to bottom, it is hard to say that they won't be one of the top 5 or 3 offenses in the league. They have playmakers at every position from QB all the way down to TE. The only real thing that could hamper this groups production is injuries, just as they did to our offensive line last year. 

It's scary to think that a vast majority of our offensive starters are still relatively young in this league, yet I think that this group is more than capable of stepping all over defenses on their way to the superbowl. This unit possesses the necessary experience and talent to do so and the reason I believe that they are going to get it done is because of their selfless attitudes, there's really no ego on this offense (though I'm worried that Finley might soon break that trend) and when you play with chemistry like that it makes you nearly impossible to beat. I'm excited to see how this season goes, let's all hope it ends with the return of the Lombardi Trophy to the Frozen Tundra. 

......to be continued (Defense is next)