Tim Tebow: 10 Reasons He'll Start the Season As Third-String QB
Tim Tebow has been one of the biggest storylines of the 2010 offseason and preseason to date. A shock first round pick in April's draft, the 23-year-old quarterback made waves almost immediately, as his jersey was the NFL's best seller for the month of April, despite only being on the market for a week of that month.
Of course, for a kid who lost just finished up a four-year college tour in which he won a pair of national titles, a Heisman trophy (while being a finalist two other years), and every other conceivable award, while racking up 9,286 passing yards, 2,947 rushing yards, 145 total touchdowns and becoming a God in the state of Florida, perhaps the most surprising aspect of the year will be that he won't see much of the field.
In fact, odds are good that Tebow will begin the season as the Broncos' third-string quarterback, jersey sales be damned.
Don't believe me? Here are 10 reasons why Tebow will start the season carrying Brady Quinn's clipboard, not Kyle Orton's.
10. He's Hurt
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As OTAs and other football-related activities got underway, Tebow was seen as having a real shot at stealing the starting job from current conch-holder Kyle Orton. But a funny thing happened on the way to fulfilling his destiny: he got hurt. During the Broncos' first preseason game against the Bengals, Tebow took a shot to the ribs from linebacker Abdul Hodge as part of a 7-yard touchdown dash.
The 23-year-old quarterback was seen wearing flak jacket-like extra padding around his torso at practice on Wednesday of last week, and ended up leaving the practice early favoring his ribs. He didn't take the field on Thursday either, leading to speculation that the bruised ribs could hold him out of the next preseason game.
Why is this a problem for a guy like Tebow? Well, for any rookie in the NFL, training camp is extremely important. You need the reps with your teammates to build rapport, grasp the system, make mistakes, and learn from them.
Every practice Tebow's out is another opportunity to learn that he'll miss. And when you're competing for a backup spot, like Tim is, every opportunity missed is a big deal.
9. His Contract Isn't Overwhelming
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Yes, Tim Tebow was a first round pick by the Broncos. Yes, typically first round picks get played before they're ready to play because of the size of their contracts. But Tebow's contract is unique, in that while it pays him well, the five-year, 11.6 million dollar deal is back-loaded.
Tebow is set to make $1.3 million in guaranteed money for the year in 2010. A large sum for a third string quarterback, but not unheard of for a star-in-waiting. In fact, his salary increases each year, and there are incentives based on the percentages of in-game snaps Tebow takes in 2010, 2011 and 2012. The contract doubles in value if he reaches 55 percent of his possible playing time between now and 2012.
So, in other words, it would be better for the Broncos if Tebow takes a year or two to ascend to the starting job. And in the NFL, personnel decisions tend to come down to money, meaning that if Denver saves by waiting on Tebow, they will.
8. They Don't Need Him
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Typically, when an NFL rookie starts, it's because his teem needs him to because there are no better options on the roster.
Peyton Manning started as a rookie, because there weren't better options on the roster. Same with Jay Cutler in Denver, JaMarcus Russell in Oakland, and Donovan McNabb in Philly. They all started as rookies because their teams needed them.
Here's the thing about Tim Tebow: his team doesn't need him yet. The Broncos have a starting quarterback in Kyle Orton, and they have a backup in Brady Quinn. They can take as much time grooming Tebow as they want, because they have players in place who can start while Tebow learns the ropes.
When a team invests in a player like the Broncos invested in Tebow, the last thing they want to do is throw him to the lions before he has the weapons to fight them (unless it's the Detroit Lions, in which case it's not nearly as scary). Since Denver doesn't need to put Tebow at risk, they won't.
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7. Brady Quinn
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In the early offseason, the Broncos sent running back Peyton Hillis, a 2011 sixth-round pick, and a conditional pick in 2012 to the Cleveland Browns for 25-year-old quarterback Brady Quinn.
Quinn, a 2007 first-round pick out of Notre Dame, had gone 3-9 in 12 starts in Cleveland, and was widely viewed by Browns fans as a bust. He'd struggled in what little action he'd seen during his tenure in Cleveland, making poor decisions and throwing interceptions with frequency.
But clearly the Broncos saw potential there. Perhaps Quinn's struggles were less his fault, and more the fact that he was playing in one of the NFL's quagmires. There was no one in Cleveland to throw the ball to, no offensive line to protect him, and no run game to make up for his mistakes. Brady Quinn was one of the few worthwhile players for the Browns, and the Broncos recognized that and got him out of there. With a fairly talented group around him, Quinn could still be the quarterback people envisioned when the Browns made him a first round pick.
Quinn was also acquired for three players in total (assuming the conditional pick is given to Cleveland as well), meaning there is slightly more pressure to play him than there is to play Tebow.
He's also older, giving him seniority over the former Gator. In short, everything indicates that if Orton struggles or leaves, it will be Quinn, not Tebow, who will get first crack at the starting gig.
6. It's a Jungle out There
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I'm not one to state the obvious, so bear with me. I realize Tim Tebow is a big man. He's strong and tough and a fierce competitor. But perhaps that fire is not as useful for a young prospect like Tim. He's already hurt himself scrambling around in a preseason game (although he did knock a safety woozy in the process).
The NFL is faster, stronger, and more punishing than the college game is by a long shot. The Broncos won't be playing against Florida International or Charleston Southern. Instead, they'll be facing off against guys who are physical freaks, the best of the best, every single week. If they don't have to put Tim Tebow out there yet, something tells me they won't.
Tebow's a competitor; his fire and passion are almost unmatched. But the team has invested too much in him to watch him get hurt before they need to risk him. So, once he's ready, Denver will send him out. But right now, the jungle is a little more than he can handle.
5. Kyle Orton Isn't Going Anywhere
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Much has been made about Kyle Orton's future in Denver this offseason. With a pair of promising young quarterbacks behind him, both of whom came in to the league with higher expectations than Orton, it was believed that the former Purdue Boilermaker was not long for the orange and blue.
But Orton has once again proven his doubters wrong for the time being. His efforts in camp were sufficiently strong that McDaniels and the Broncos renewed his contract to the tune of $9 million through 2011. Even if Tebow makes it past Quinn in camp, he's going to have to do quite a bit to unseat Orton when he's making that kind of money.
Orton doesn't have a cannon for an arm like so many other NFL quarterbacks, but he doesn't make many mistakes. He's an efficient passer who knows how to run an NFL offense and, most importantly, he wins ball games.
Orton has been a winner everywhere he's played (even in Chicago). With the freedom he has in Denver, he could become a Drew Brees-type player—one who wins games with accurate passes to good receivers. I'm not saying he's unassailable, but right now he's got a firm grip on the starting job and no plans to let it go.
4. Josh McDaniels Is His Head Coach
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Josh McDaniels, head coach of the Denver Broncos, is one of the biggest reasons why Tim Tebow is buried on the depth chart. McDaniels' NFL coaching career began under Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots, and Belichick is definitely McDaniels' role model.
The 34-year-old McDaniels watched how the Patriots handled Tom Brady, a sixth-round pick who sat on the bench for two years before taking the starting job from Drew Beldsoe and never letting go.
Now, in Tebow, McDaniels has his Tom Brady. Tebow has the raw talent to be something great, and the Broncos' head coach wants to make sure he has as much time as he needs.
The Brady Quinn signing was insurance, making sure the team had a competent starter should Orton stumble; it is Tebow who will ultimately be the face of the franchise. Therefore, McDaniels is going to teach him and protect him until he is certain Tebow is ready. That means that this year, Tebow gets buried third on the depth chart.
3. Knowshon Moreno
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This is the point where you're probably scratching your head. How can a running back keep a quarterback off the field, short of injuring him? In Denver, the answer is simple: Moreno hasn't proven he can run consistently at the NFL level.
This means that the Broncos' run game is somewhat shaky this season. Kyle Orton won last year with this running game, and Brady Quinn did alright with no running game in Cleveland. But Tebow is the quarterback McDaniels is betting the farm on, and when he gets in there, he's going to need a solid run game to help him while he gets his passing game in order.
If Moreno has a big year, and the Broncos' other running backs can produce as well, we might see Tebow more next season. But this year, with no proven alternative to throwing the ball, Tebow will ride the pine behind two guys who can play with a lack of a run game.
2. Denver's Offensive System
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Tim Tebow had the perfect offensive system for his talents in college. Urban Meyer's spread option offense was designed for a mobile quarterback with a strong arm and a good football IQ. All of those things are right in Tebow's wheelhouse. Therefore, he flourished as a quarterback there.
Meanwhile, McDaniels has followed in Belichick's footsteps as Denver's head coach, running a pass heavy system that involves less running and more passing from the quarterback. Because Tebow's passing is his biggest weakness (relatively speaking) the Broncos want to let him develop as a backup, learning the ins and outs of this complex system before throwing him into the fire.
There's no wildcat formation in the Broncos' playbook (although that could change), meaning Tebow's greatest strength, his ability to make plays outside the pocket, is neutralized in the offense for now.
Once he has the hang of it (like Tom Brady), the system will help him achieve greatness. But until then, he's riding the pine.
1. Tebow Isn't Ready Yet
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Why was it so surprising that Tim Tebow was a first round pick, when he had accomplished so much? To put it simply, his talents weren't ready for the NFL yet.
Tebow has a hitch in his delivery which makes the ball vulnerable to being stripped by defenders, and can lead to it coming out of his hand a split second late. His decision making in the pocket is suspect at times, and many felt he was most comfortable out of the pocket. In short, he wasn't what many saw as a ready-made NFL quarterback, which is what you want from a first-round pick. He needs a couple of years to improve his passing and his decision making in the pocket.
He has the potential for greatness, but many thought he needed to retool his delivery before he got to the NFL. Whether that is true or not, Tebow won't get a chance to start until he shows improvement in his passing game, which is the biggest factor in his sitting third on the depth chart.
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