NFL Preaseason 2010: Putting Too Much Stock in Scorelines

Every year, the preseason is subject to endless analysis, especially by fantasy football owners.

And yet, the final scoreline hardly has anything to do with the regular season.

Wins and losses in the preseason are truly meaningless. If you want proof, just take a look at the 2008 preseason, when the Detroit Lions went 4-0. That was immediately prior to their record-setting 0-16 regular season.

The Indianapolis Colts have not seen a winning preseason record since 2004 and regularly go 1-3 or worse in the preseason. Yet, it would be hard to argue that they are not a top-tier team in the NFL.

Individual player success speaks more than the scoreline. And even then, just looking at the stats may not represent the truth of their skill level.

The game tape is where the story lies. It is in the second-string quarterback's ability to make something out of nothing when he is under heavy pressure.

You can watch a running back's style and see if they shy away from contact, or if they are willing to take on a linebacker, knowing they can push for the extra yard or two.

Seeing that a running back carried the ball five times for 10 yards may turn off some critics. However, it is possible that they were doing those runs in the second half to just let the clock run.

Considering how little the starters play overall, the results tend to sit on the shoulders of fringe players.

Predicting the regular season records based on the preseason is a true absurdity.

Often there seems to be an inverse relationship between the preseason wins and regular season success. But that idea hardly seems hard and fast.

Unfortunately, calling winners and losers is far from a science.

You have to weigh factors such as coaching changes, player development, and past records (though Miami has proved that hardly matters).

So how can you predict the outcome of a season? Wait six games, and then make a prediction.

Oh wait, then you have teams like the Giants, Broncos and Titans who go from winners to losers or vice versa.

Ultimately, it's extremely difficult to make predictions unless you watch the teams play. It's about watching and evaluating. Follow your gut instinct.

And even then, you'll be wrong half the time.

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