Fantasy Football: Five Rookie Running Backs to Target in 2010

With offensive scheming in the NFL quickly transitioning to more of a "spread" look, and teams incorporating the idea of "running back by committee," fantasy football drafters only have four to five running backs who are "workhorse" backs any longer.

These four to five—Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Michael Turner/Frank Gore—still have multiple question around all of them.

Adrian Peterson: Fumbling problems, and can he stay healthy like last season?

Chris Johnson: Will the 358 carries take their toll on him in 2010?

Ray Rice: Will Anquan Boldin's addition take away touches from him?

Maurice Jones-Drew: Can he contiiue producing with a team that has absolutely no other weapons besides him?

Michael Turner: Only played in basically 10 games last season.

Frank Gore: Has one full healthy season over his last five seasons.

All this to say that there is major uncertainty in the world of football, and it is important to know that for the first time in many years, I believe there will be some serious production coming from the 2010 RB rookie draft class. Many of these running backs have already been named starters, and all except Ryan Mathews can be drafted with amazing value.

Late in drafts it will be wise to take a healthy dose of proven veterans, such as a Hines Ward—caught 90 passes again last season—but also take a chance on an explosive rookie, like Matt Forte in 2008, where he exploded onto the scene after being named the starter early in the summer.

Nevertheless, strategy aside, here are some rookie running backs who will likely put up serviceable fantasy numbers in 2010.

1. Ryan Mathews

Norv Turner is quoted this offseason along the lines of saying he expects to hand the rock to LT's apparent heir, Ryan Mathews, at least 300 times this 2010 season.

It has been crystal clear that this offseason's agenda was to reestablish the rushing attack.

A running back who has a similar skill set to that of Michael Turner, Mathews will be the new mustang that the Chargers will ride in 2010. The Chargers would not have traded up from pick 28 to pick 12 in the NFL Draft unless they saw him as their immediate starter and RB of the future.

Don't expect him to catch many passes out of the backfield. However, Mathews will likely share the bulk of the team's red-zone touchdowns with perennial Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates.

It should not surprise you fantasy football fans when I say Mathews is worthy of a second round pick. The only other year in which I advocated an early draft selection to a rookie running back was when Matt Forte came into the league as the Bears' lead back two years ago; sadly Forte was taken two picks before me by an owner who could not even pronounce Forte's last name.

The NCAA rushing leader in 2009 is going to be heavily involved in the Chargers offense, which will be without its best vertical threat for the first 10 weeks.

Projection: 314 Rushes, 1315 Yards, eight TDs, 15 Receptions, 230 Yards

Marginal RB1 or Solid RB2

2. Jahvid Best

The Lions have been raving about this kid all offseason; the explosiveness, the top-line speed, and agility are all impressive. If he is used efficiently in this coming 2010 season, we could see a star in the making.

Some people note his size as a problem for him becoming a future lead back in the NFL, yet I think his size is absolutely perfect. At 5'10", 200 pounds, he can hide behind blockers and use his explosiveness to hit the right holes.

With Kevin Smith still recovering from a torn ACL, look for Best to be the best RB in the Detroit Lions backfield. This guy is a pure playmaker who will be a regular in SportsCenter's "Top 10 Plays of the Week."

Projection: 203 Rushes, 1009 Yards, four TDs, 34 Receptions, 420 Yards, two TDs

RB2 to Solid Flex option

3. C.J. Spiller

Another explosive runner, Spiller joins a very crowded backfield in Buffalo with healthy running backs Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch.

In this particular scene, I would rate the running backs on this team as such:

1. Fred Jackson

2. C.J. Spiller

3. Marshawn Lynch

Jackson is the most complete back with ability running and catching the ball better than most;

Spiller has the most potential;

I consider Lynch un-draftable due to his apparent lack of commitment and off-field issues.

Yet Spiller is an extraordinary talent who no doubt can create running lanes for himself. Spiller is high risk/high reward, and although I feel he can outproduce all other rookie backs if he plays to his potential, I feel he will be drafted higher than he should be.

Treat him as a low end RB2 or Flex player.

Projection: 185 Rushes, 834 Yards, two TDs, 35 Receptions, 210 Yards, three TDs

Marginal RB2 to Flex option

If only, if only...

Had it not been for the season-ending injury, Ben Tate would have been the No. 4 rookie RB. Yet the ability of Tate will be unrealized for at least one full season.

Here were some points I had previously made before the injury...

Ben Tate is a big, strong, downhill running back, but not the most explosive running back. However, he has great vision for a young ball carrier and played in a similar offense as the Texans at Auburn University.

In a jumbled backfield, it seems that Tate will have a tough time getting enough touches to be an impact this season. However, let's look at these sizes shall we?

Player A: 5'9", 199 lbs.

Player B: 5'11", 220lbs.

Player A is Steve Slaton: productive in his rookie season, yet a non-factor last season. If Slaton's spinal injury is fully healed as he says, Tate will lose playing time considerably. Slaton is a better pass catcher than Tate is, and this offense is predicated upon the pass.

However, Tate could be the workhorse back the Texans need. With a strong build at 220 pounds, he can take 20 carries a game and can provide balance to a pass-heavy offense that always seems behind in football games.

If Tate can solidify a starting job through the preseason, look for him to produce like Ryan Grant in Green Bay: around 250 carries, solid yardage, and a couple of touchdowns.

Projection: 225 Rushes, 918 Yards, five TDs, 10 Receptions, 103 Yards

Low-end RB2 to Flex option

4. Montario Hardesty

Hardesty would be much higher in my rankings, but he recently injured his knee.

Hardesty was drafted by the Browns with the notion that he had fully recovered from his college knee injuries (yes, plural) to step in as the Browns' lead back.

This setback pushes Montario down draft boards, and he could be a pleasant surprise if he makes a smooth recovery.

As a mid round flyer, Hardesty can provide a team with some quality production in an offense that likely will switch to a West Coast offensive system.

Mike Holmgren has brought in three accurate, short-game passers who can move well in and out of the pocket (Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Colt McCoy) and it seems very clear that they will implement a RBBC with the tandem of Jerome Harrison and Hardesty.

Harrison will be the hot commodity come draft day, while Hardesty could possibly be a steal pick late in the draft. Look for him to play consistently well when he comes back from the knee injury, and also look for Hardesty to vulture most of the goal-line touchdowns away from the smaller back Harrison.

Projections: 182 Rushes, 712 Yards, eight TDs, eight Receptions, 55 Yards

Flex Option to RB3

5. LeGarrette Blount

You guys are probably saying, "Titans? That's Chris Johnson's gig all the way, man!"

Or, "Wait, isn't that the thug who KO'd the Boise State player who tried to talk trash?"

Here's a link to the video, just for old time's sake...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEu3GzNDs74&feature=related

Nevertheless, Blount has impressed everyone in Titans camp with his hard work and improved character. At a massive 6'2", 240, Blount looks like a more talented and polished LenDale White.

If he can maintain the backup role under Chris Johnson, Blount could see some fill-in starts and will likely be the primary goal-line back.

Look for a big touchdown total, but limited rushes and yardage.

Projections: 160 Rushes, 650 Yards, 11 TDs, three Receptions, 30 Yards

Handcuff RB or RB3 to RB4

The best of the rest...

Anthony Dixon

Dixon apparently is having difficulties grasping the offensive scheme, and the offensive coordinator has even said to reporters that he sometimes feels like "strangling" him.

All that to say, with Glen Coffee out of the league, and veteran presence Brian Westbrook added to the mix, Dixon could improve his game dramatically. Don't expect much of an impact in 2010, however; his value is in 2011 and beyond.

Jonathan Dwyer

He has come to camp overweight and aggravated his hamstring in his first practice. Rashard Mendenhall is the guy in Pittsburgh, but Mendenhall has had injury problems in the past. Dwyer has real potential to be a pounding back and could see some action in 2010 should Mendenhall go down.

Joe McKnight

McKnight has potential to produce like Leon Washington did two years ago, yet LT2 is on the way. Limited touches will keep his production too low for fantasy consideration. McKnight is very talented, yet has underachieved his whole career at USC. Hopefully Rex Ryan can get the most out of him...

That's all folks...

Thank you for taking the time and reading this article. I hope you enjoyed it and come back to read more of my posts.

Also check out my website, the3-4.com, and the two guys who actually created it: Alex Jenny and Keith McGonigle. Both have pages here at bleacherreport.com, and both provide great insight about the NFL and NCAA football.

Thanks again—later...