The Brotherhood's Guide To Drafting Wide Receivers

Here at Fantasy Football Brothers, our Free Draft Kit rolls on as we enter Wide-out Week. Wide receivers are finally getting the respect they deserve from fantasy nation. Today we take a look at the intricacies of the position. Tune in all week as we “go deep”, exploring all aspects of route-runners. Stick with The Brotherhood and you’ll be end-zone dancing come seasons end.

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Changing with the times: Fantasy Championships are Won with Wide-Outs:

Darwin’s Law: Survival of the Fittest. Times have changed drastically in the past few seasons. The Brotherhood warned you that the apocalypse was near and we were right. The RBBC has changed the game. The RB-RB draft strategy was once ingrained and accepted by all to be as good as law. The RBBC has super-saturated the position leaving few true workhorses. With the majority of teams moving to a time-share style of running, the quantity of runners has sky rocketed, but the quality has been compromised. Every-down backs are a dying breed. With the second half of the first round being filled with an abundance of risky running back plays, 2010 mock trends suggest that many are opting to go with a top-notch WR or QB play. Running back is the most injury prone position, and is now one of the easiest roster spots to fill. As the NFL transitions more into a passing league, the number of receivers that make fantasy contributions will rise. That being said, I wouldn’t necessarily call the position pool “deep”. The cream of the crop is thin.

Trends at the position:

Spread Formation Infestation – The Evolution of the WR3:In 2008, Steve Breaston was the only WR3 worth owning. In 2009, the infestation of the spread formation has lead to the emergence of unlikely fantasy contributors. ‘09 could be considered the “Year of the Rookie Wide Receiver”. The “Three Year Theory” states that the learning curve for rookie pass-catchers is three seasons. It has been ingrained into fantasy culture to not draft rookie wide-outs, but as offenses open up, opportunities have arisen. Austin Collie, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks all made their way onto the field as WR3’s. They started on the wire but have made their way into starting line-ups. Other WR3’s that have made fantasy impacts include Robert Meachem, James Jones and Early Doucet. In leagues that start three receivers, the WR3 spot is often the most difficult to fill. As more teams have turned to the air, the number of fantasy contributors has increased.

Playmaker Saturation can Lead to Target Dilution:High-powered offenses produce fantasy stats. The New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts, not only had the two best records in the league, but they are the most talent-stacked units in all of football. Their studs are studs, but playmaker saturation leads to the dilution of touches and targets. Trying to decide between Devery Henderson and Robet Meachem, Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie has become a headache for owners on a weekly basis. Headliners like Reggie Wayne are weekly must-starts, but his targets may start to become compromised in what is now a crowded Colts’ passing game. As if the competition wasn’t deep enough, Anthony Gonzalez will make his return back into the Colts’ lineup. Playmaker saturation leads to target dilution. Wayne will remain atop the target list, but Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez will all be begging for Peyton Manning’s attention.

Strategy:

Knowing Your Leagues Scoring Format:

If there were such a thing as the Ten Commandments of Fantasy Football, this would be near the top: “Thou Shall Know Your Leagues Scoring System!” Let me stress to you how seriously important this is. Knowing your leagues scoring system is like the “thou shall not kill” of fantasy football. True value of players can only be weighed when an in-depth assessment of the scoring format has been done. Once that has been established it is important to consult fantasy sources that advise in congruence with your scoring format. Your leagues scoring system and formulation of starting roster will set the tone for strategizing what roster spots will have to be filled in what order.

Where and when you will draft your wide-outs will depend on many things. Not only does scoring, but roster formation, and draft pattern all need to be taken into account. Exploration of all these components will give you an accurate indication of positional importance.

The stat that seems to have the most influence on player value is the reception. Pass receptions are scored differently from league to league. Awarded points can vary from 0, 0.33, 0.5, and 1 PPR (point per reception). A fantasy GM going into a draft in a point-per-reception league should have a totally different approach than a GM drafting in a league that does not award for receptions.

PPR Machine!

No other positions value seems to fluctuate more than the wide-out, depending on what scoring format your league utilizes. A receiver’s value cannot only jump spots, but can jump rounds depending on how valued receptions are. A wide-out who catches 100 balls gets a whole 100 more points for your fantasy squad. That is a major stat leap and should show you how the PPR format can throw off your whole draft strategy. In reception leagues, receivers become much more valuable and you need to adjust accordingly. Alterations not only need to be made in comparing positions, but also within the wide receiver position itself. In a PPR league a receiver like Wes Welker gets a stock bump, for although he might not lead the league in scoring, he can be counted on to reach the century mark in grabs and contend for the reception title.

Which route-runner goes first depends on what scoring format you’re in. Here’s a brief breakdown:
PPR: Andre Johnson: 100-plus catches, 1500-plus yards, 10-plus scores = #1.
Standard Format: Andre is elite.
TD Only: With Brady and Randy both playing for contracts: Moss is the Man!

Here are some other “risers” and “fallers” depending on what scoring format is implemented: last years stats in ( ).

PPR Risers: Brandon Marshall (101), Roddy White(85), Steve Smith NYG (107), Larry Fitzgerald (97), Reggie Wayne (100), Wes Welker (123), Hines Ward (95), Housh (79).

PPR Fallers: DeSean (63), Vjack (68), Robert Meachem (45)

TD Risers: Randy Moss (13), Larry Fitzgerald (13),  Marques Colston (9), Vincent Jackson (9), Robert Meachem (9), DeSean Jackson(9), Austin Collie (7).

TD Fallers: Hines Ward (5), Steve Smith NYG (7),  Housh (3).

Yardage Risers: Sindney Rice (1312), Santonio Holmes (1248), Greg Jennings (1120)

Yardage Fallers: Robert Meachem (722), Austin Collie (676)

Return Formats: DeSean Jackson, Mike Thomas, Jacoby Jones, Devin Hester, Josh Cribbs, Percy Harvin, Eddie Royal.

Big-Play Risers: Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings

Big-Play Fallers: The possession guys: Welker, Steve Smith, Hines Ward

The Point: Notice that a “riser” in one category, can very easily be a “faller” in another. Depending on what scoring format is in place, that player’s value can vary significantly. That being said, you have to adjust your rankings accordingly.  

Return League Scoring:

Cream of the Crop in Return League Formats.

Fantasy sophistication comes with seniority. Each year you play, you further your knowledge, lengthen your preparation and embrace your addiction. The combinations of scoring formats and roster formations allow endless opportunities. From snake drafts to auction leagues, team defenses to IDP’s, fixed line-ups to flex plays…..

More and more leagues are rewarding for special teams play. Finding players who are not only return men, but have locked down starting jobs are high-end commodities in such formats. Heading into the 2010 season there are plenty of alluring targets that fit the bill.

Average yardage on kick returns is significantly higher than punts. If you’re caught between one or the other, the kick-returner is the way to go. Finding a player that returns both, and also starts on offense is the ultimate trifecta for production.

Along the same lines, some leagues distribute points for return yards and touchdowns. For example: 1 point per 25 return yards and 6 points for return touchdowns. In such leagues wide receiver/return men like Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson have a much higher value. Read the fine print. If you hear of a wide-out getting return duties – their stock should immediately rise. Many fantasy players are not tuned into the random rules such as this. In fantasy, ignorance isn’t bliss. Every point counts!

Standard Scoring is No Longer the Standard:

Publications base their rankings on a standard scoring system. That “standard” may not be how your league is set up, yet you still use their check list come draft day. Put it this way: showing up to a draft with a mag that does not match your leagues scoring system is like trying to assemble a complicated appliance while having the directions to the wrong product. Basically: It’s gonna come out sh*tty. I love when draft day comes and I see some schmuck using a just purchased, mint conditioned fantasy mag that ranks players completely different than how our league scores. Don’t be that schmuck. In fact, start suggesting to your friends to pick up mags that don’t agree with your league, while you utilize Fantasy Brothers and get tailor-fitted information according to your leagues rules.

We are the real deal.  Fantasy Brothers offers personalized question response according to the specific scoring system of your fantasy league. Feel free to send in your questions – be sure to include your leagues scoring format in order to get more accurate answers to your pressing questions. Our Draft Tool is in the final stages of preparation and should be available to Brotherhood members shortly. The Tool allows you to type in your specific league’s point scoring system. It will then filter the players and reorganize the ranks accordingly. No more out-dated, non-applicable projection sheets. Its the difference between wearing a non-altered suit, and one that has been tailor fitted. Our Draft Tool is all you’ll need.

“WE SHALL NOT STEER YOU WRONG.”

Roster Formation:

Roster formation can influence positional value. If you’re league roster starts 3 WR, the WR drought starts early and other positions can be put on the back burner. But if your league roster starts only 2 WR, an early look at other positions can be afforded.

Respect your elders. Trust the stats. Upside vs. Consistency:

Respect Your Elders!

“Upside” is one of the most dangerous yet intriguing words in all of fantasy nation. We are all addicts. Addiction comes when something provides you with a certain “high”. Highs are obtained with every win, with every right call, with every swindling trade and with every waiver wire steel.

Consistency is consistency. It is a given. There is no gamble. There is no risk. You plug in and play. But no one gives you credit for meeting expectations. The guy who drafted Reggie Wayne last year didn’t receive any praise from his league mates at the end of the season for making a good pick. But those who went after Miles Austin and Sidney Rice did. The term “Upside” indicates risk. The riskier the play, the higher the high. But like many drugs, after the high often comes a crash… for every good trip, there is a bad one.

Sometimes sticking with what works is the call. True, your trigger finger won’t be quivering over your mouse 5 minutes before game time, but you’ll save a fortune this season when you can cancel your weekly Tagament and Prilosec prescriptions.

It’s like going to the coffee shop. Every thing is to the extreme nowadays. The imported expresso with the triple shot of engine fuel, imported cocoa powder, double dose of whipped cream, mint leaf accents, with unpronounceable names and unknown ingredients.

What ever happened to a “medium regular”. You know what you’re getting. There is no uncomfortable jitters, no post-high crash. You know what to expect and it delivers every time. It may not have a funky hyphen or accent marks in its name, but it is old faithful.

Heading into this years draft there is an array of consistent produces and high-upside plays. From Miles Austin vs. Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall vs. Randy Moss, Hakeem Nicks vs. Hines Ward, Johnny Knox vs. Derrick Mason. I was always told to “respect my elders”, and believe me I do, but it’s so hard to veer away from those flashy new toys. Not knowing what you’ll get is half the thrill of it. Fantasy success often comes with the homeostatic balance between drafting dependable fantasy consistency and hitting on upside potential.

Create a watch list:

You should never be at the end of your draft scratching your head believing that no one is available. Prepared GMs walk away from a draft wanting more – Wishing that there was ten more rounds because there is still so much potential left on the board.

Every year top-end talent is left un-drafted. Track those whom have shown glimpses in camp and in the pre-season. Flag those players and get the jump when it’s time to pick them up as a free agent.

Off Season Moves:

Both the Dolphins and Jets have made upgrades to the receiving units. Brandon Marshall has all the tools to be the best in the league. Chad Henne has shown promise. The Dolphins lacked the talent to line up traditionally vs. opponents in ’09, forcing the team to the roll the dice running the Wildcat formation. The Cat had success, but was only effective when Ronnie Brown was at the helm. Brown has already hit the practice field and is ahead of schedule, but his injury allowed Dolphin personnel to see what they had in Henne. Miami could surprise some people this season. The one who may benefit most is possession receiver Davone Bess. He showed the ability to tally up grabs, but needs to add on to his YPC to make give him more of a fantasy impact.

Santonio Holmes antics bought him a one-way plane ticket out of Pittsburgh. Lucky for him, he traveled from one contender, to an even better one. Rex Ryan and the Jets have been busy this off-season. This conference is wide open. Marc Sanchez showed poise down the stretch, but was an interception throwing machine for most of the season. The Jets ground game and defense were good enough to still push them to the AFC Championship game. Another year under center for the Sanchise, and the Jets’ potential is limitless. Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery have talent but belong on the under card. Holmes has the talent to be the main event. This offense should be well balanced and Santonio should see his fair share of single coverage. He’ll miss four games, but a 5th rounder is a small price to pay for one of the rising stars at the position.

Don’t sleep on Nate Burleson. He’ll produce himself, but more importantly, he’ll provide Calvin Johnson with his best supporting cast member yet. He out-produced Housh in Seattle and will provide Matt Stafford with another legitimate target. The off-season acquisition of pass-catching tight end Tony Shefler should also provide Megatron with defensive respite.

One of the most influential moves at the position was not a WR but a coach. The addition of Mike Martz to the Bear’s offense has the stock of Johnny Knox, Devin Hester and Devin Aromashodu soaring. We expect Jay Cutler to bounce back, and for these fairly un-receivers to be weekly fantasy contributors by season’s end.

Questions?????????????????

How much do Derrick Mason and Donald Driver have left in the tank? Year in and year out, we expect these vets to decline and they don’t. They have defied nature and have gotten better with age. But one can only escape Father Time for so long. Mason has already retired once. Anquan Boldin will step in as the Raven’s number one guy. Playing as the number two should lessen the expectations and very well could lengthen the career of the steady vet. Driver arguably had one of his best seasons as a pro. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal. He was able to make the aging Driver look like a youth again. Green Bay is stacked with young talent at the WR and TE position. James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Finely are all more than capable of picking up the slack once the vet makes his departure. His off-season knee struggles deem monitoring. This may be his final year of fantasy production.

Is Megatron and Injury Risk? Calvin Johnson may be the most athletically gifted wide-out available, but he has yet to piece together an entire season of healthy production. Does he deserve the injury tag? His incredible upside makes him an easy top-ten selection, but his fragility made us weary of keeping him in the top-five. As Matt Stafford matures, Megatron’s numbers should rise. Calvin will benefit from the influx of talent the Lions obtained through the draft, free-agent signings and trades.

2010 The Year of Redemption.

Potential Buy Low Targets?

Roddy White and Greg Jennings. Heading into the 09 season, they both carried potential top-5 status. Things did not end up that way as Jennings struggled to find his groove and the whole Falcon offense took a step back. Both players and both teams showed signs of remedying their problems down the stretch. Jennings showed flashes of his 08 form as the season progressed and should bounce back in 2010. Matt Ryan’s sophomore struggles along with a nagging toe injury and Micheal Turners absence, all combined to keep Roddy White’s numbers in check. He still finished strong, but his ceiling is much higher. All Falcon players should have a bounce back season in 2010. White still carries top-5 potential. Given his multiple knee injuries and sporatic QB play, I’d add Calvin to the “buy low” category. True, he may warrant the injury risk label, but if he can stay healthy and grow with his young QB – the sky is the limit.

Other buy-low targets: Dwayne Bowe, Johnny Knox, Steve Smith CAR, Wes Welker.

Closing Statements:

When it comes to Philosophy, forget about Socrates and Plato and start thinking about Andre Johnson and Randy Moss. If you have an early pick in this year’s draft, it is difficult to pass on the few RB studs left in the game. That being said, if you’re fortunate enough to land Chris Johnson, Peterson, MJD, Ray Rice or Gore in the 1st, back-to-back WR picks in the 2cnd and 3rd is advised. The WR position is top-heavy but plateaus fast. RBBC saturation has lead to decent RB2 plays falling to the later rounds. The “Running Days” are done. Running Backs were once the staple of fantasy success, but stud WRs have proven to be the more valuable commodity. There is a solid 10-12 premiere pass-catchers that high expectations can be placed upon. Using two out of your first three picks to land a pair from this bunch is advised. 80-plus receptions, 1,200-plus receiving yards, and double-digit TDs sound good to me.

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