Fantasy Football: Is Matt Ryan Worth Drafting as a Fantasy QB1?

Matt Ryan is being drafted as the 10th quarterback overall, according to Mock Draft Central (around 79th overall).  On our most recent quarterback rankings (click here to view), we have him ranked 12th.  Either way, he appears to be a borderline starting quarterback option for fantasy football owners.

The question is, can he produce enough to justify using him as a QB1?

First, let’s look at his 2009 statistics:

Completions: 263
Attempts: 451
Yards: 2,916
Touchdowns: 22
Interceptions: 14

The numbers certainly don’t scream fantasy starter, do they?  He was just 21st in yards, though he did tie Donovan McNabb for 13th in tocuhdowns.  He missed two games, however, so there is plenty of room to expand upon those numbers.  He only had three games of at least 250 yards, so you would like to see a few more big games from him if you want to lean on him as a starter.

His receiving corps also leaves a little to be desired.

Roddy White is the clear WR1, something you can’t complain about.  The two had a great rapport last season, with White catching 85 passes for 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns.  He has emerged as one of the most consistent receivers in the league, with 80-plus catches and 1,150+ yards each of the past three seasons.  His touchdowns have increased, from six to seven to last year’s 11.  There’s just nothing not to like.

At tight end, Ryan has the future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez at his disposal.  Last season Gonzalez caught 83 passes for 867 yards and 6 touchdowns.  Despite now being 33-years old, he has shown no signs of slowing down and should continue to be viewed as one of the elite tight ends in the game.

The problem is, that’s where the positives stop.  Only one other receiver had more then 31 receptions, Michael Jenkins, who had 50 catches for 635 yards and 1 touchdown.  He was out for the first preseason game due to a shoulder injury, and there are rumblings that he may not be ready for the start of the season.  That has to be a concern, because the rest of the receiving corps has a lot of question marks:

- Hugh Douglas missed all of 2009 due to injury with a knee injury.
- Brian Finneran started the preseason opener in place of Jenkins, but has just 32 catches over the past two seasons after missing all of 2006 and 2007.
- Kerry Meier was drafted in the fifth round of the 2010 draft out of Kansas and is seen as a possession receiver, if he makes the roster.

Michael Turner is a tremendous running back, but he’s not a receivimg threat out of the backfield.  He’s never had more than six receptions in a season and has just 22 over his six-year career.

Ryan's offensive line is strong, as he was sacked just 19 times last season, the third fewest among quarterbacks with at least 450 attempts.

While you have to like that, you have to worry about the weapons surrounding him.  The running game should help to keep defenses honest, but if someone else can’t step up in Jenkins’ absence, defenses will be able to focus more on White and Gonzalez.  They are still going to make plays, but they are going to be harder to come by.  Couple that with the lack of many big passing games in 2009, and there are a lot of negatives.

Right now, I’d much rather have Ryan as a high upside backup quarterback, pairing him with someone like Eli Manning or Joe Flacco.  He has the potential to really emerge, but there are too many risks.

What are your thoughts?  Would you draft Ryan as a QB1?  Why or why not?

Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s 2010 rankings:

• Top 25 Quarterbacks
• Top 40 Running Backs
• Top 60 Wide Receivers
• Top 20 Tight Ends
• Top 15 Kickers

Also, make sure to check out our recent rookie rankings:

• Top 5 Rookie RB
• Top 5 Rookie QB
• Top 5 Rookie WR
• Top 3 Rookie TE

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