A Player's Real Value?

For the past few weeks, there have been some great articles on B/R, but there is something that is really been bothering me when reading articles, listening to sports talk shows or posted comments. I constantly read or hear the same implications and wonder how people come up with their reasoning, when evaluating a player’s value. With all the trades, rumours or UFA signings out there, my question is how does a person really know the true value of a player?

Since I’m a Leafs fan, let’s look at the Leaf as examples. Back in July, I wrote an article regarding a trade possibility with Dallas, which included Kaberle, Finger and Grabovski. Readers posted some great comments and not so. I continued to read many articles on this site and noticed the same replies or comments regarding any trades, rumours or signings. Then, I became aware that people were basing their values on the player’s name brand, instead of yearly performance.

Let’s look at a trade scenario with Jordan Staal for Alexei Ponikarovsky... Bet you’re thinking this guy is nuts, right? Here are the numbers for the past four seasons:

Player "A"

	GP	Goals	Assist	Pts
2009-10	82	21	28	49
2008-09	82	22	27	49
2007-08	82	12	16	28
2006-07	81	29	13	42

 Player "B"

	GP	Goals	Assist	Pts
2009-10	77	21	29	50
2008-09	82	23	38	61
2007-08	66	18	17	35
2006-07	71	21	24	45

By looking at the numbers, which player do you want? Can you tell which player is who? And if you had Player "B" stats, will you trade for Player "A"? If you didn’t cheat, Player "B" is Alexei Ponikarovsky and Player "A" is Jordan Staal.

So! My question to you... Will you still make this trade?

You can come up with all kinds of excuses, but the numbers don’t lie.... In business, yearly performance and numbers are the bottom line!

Now, on the flip side branding a name is just as important. Just ask a former Toronto player with the name “Bosh” on the back of his jersey. Chris Bosh knows exactly what he was doing on twitter, making DVD’s and all those YouTube rants to get votes for the allstar game. Like the Three Tenors, Chris Bosh is going to be known as the “Third Guy” in Miami. Knowing his numbers will go down, Bosh is working hard to brand his name. Bosh has stated this in his latest interview with ESPN. The reporter also asked Bosh “Would you have received the same offer for the “Got Milk” commercial if he was still playing in Toronto” and his reply was “I don’t know”. Marketing 101: If able, create a name brand. Just ask Tim Hortons.

Now back to hockey let’s look at Kaberle value... for the past 10 years Kaberle average to play 75 games, 7 goals, 37 assists, for 44 points. This past season Kaberle played 82 games, 7 goals, 42 assists, for 49 points. This puts Kaberle in the top ten defence category for total points, which ties him for 8^th with Nicklas Lidstrom and Mark Streit. I believe Kaberle could have had 50 or more points last season, but with all the trade rumours going around, it affected him.

Kaberle numbers speak for themselves, but let’s face it, his name brand sucks. If the Leafs had marketed Kaberle to the moon, which finally Brian Buke is doing now, would we still have the same types of discussion on the real value of Kaberle?

On a related note: I was listening to Howard Berger, the other day, on The Fan590 and he stated “Kaberle’s market is not high, because for the past 5 seasons he hasn’t been in the playoffs”. & “This is a team sport and Kaberle is part of the blame for the Leafs not being in the playoff for so long” & “This is partly why Kaberle has a low market value”. Howard Berger just repeats himself. This makes no sense at all... What about Kovalchuk? Before being traded to New Jersey, how many times Kovalchuk took the Thrashers to the playoffs? In the past 9 seasons Kovalchuk took the Thrashers once, in 2006-2007 and lost in the first round. My question to Howard is, why do teams want to sign Kovalchuk to a long term deal worth over 100 million, base on your theory?

It all about the name brand...

I am no hockey GM expert, nor will I be in the near future or most likely never, but I do have a point. In my line of business I negotiate with other businesses and customers all the time. When I’m negotiating it is all about how we can both win by fulfilling each other needs. It is not all about how one can take advantage over another person, otherwise no one will do business with you in the future. Also, having a great reputation or name brand helps attract business.

I’m sure Brian Buke will find the right deal for Kaberle, if not, keep him. It will not hurt the Leafs having a top 10 defensemen in their line up, but Buke has to build Kaberle name band in order to get his full real value.    

Disclaimer: This article is not an attack on anyone particular. This article is solely a non-bias opinion.