Tim Tebow a Longshot To Win Offensive Rookie Of The Year

With the NFL Preseason underway, plenty NFL betting options are opening with online sportsbooks. Just recently, Sportsbook.com released odds on who will win the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards.

Those that bet on NFL futures might have to wait a few months to get paid, but the payouts are often very generous. Take last year’s NFL Rookie of the Year odds for example. The 2009 Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Years were Percy Harvin and Brian Cushing respectively. Bettors that wagered on these players prior to the 2009 season earned handsome payouts. The bookies had Harvin listed at 8-1 to win the award whereas Cushing paid out at a healthy 10-1.

Taking this into consideration, let’s take a look at some of the bigger names up for this year’s award and see if we can uncover some value.

Offense

Traditionally, running backs have absolutely dominated the Rookie of the Year award on the offensive side of the ball. As a matter of fact, 72 percent of the winners have been running backs. However, that trend seems to be changing as only two ball carries have taken home the hardware in the last seven seasons. Here is a sample of some of the candidates to win this year’s award.

Ryan Matthews (+450) – A new era begins in San Diego. LaDainian Tomlinson is now a New York Jet as Matthews looks to take the bulk of the carries. The Fresno State product is the co-favorite to win the award and it is easy to see why. As mentioned earlier, running backs traditionally dominate this award. More importantly, he is slotted into a perfect situation to succeed. The starting RB job is his to lose on a Super Bowl caliber team. Good Value.

Dez Bryant (+450) – Bryant’s draft stock plummeted in April as the Dallas Cowboys selected him at 24. Obviously the oddsmakers aren’t as concerned with Bryant’s abilities as he is the surprising co-favorite. Playing for a Super Bowl contender will increase his exposure but will he accumulate enough stats on a team already loaded with offensive firepower? Not likely, Poor Value.

Jahvid Best (+650) – Two years ago Lions’ running back Kevin Smith had a very good rookie season rushing for 976 yards and 8 touchdowns. Last season his numbers dipped to 747 yards and 4 scores before missing the final three games with a torn ACL. As a result, Detroit used a first round pick on Best. If Smith isn’t ready to go Week 1 or gets off to a disappointing start, Best will be a frontrunner for the award. Decent Value.

Sam Bradford (+800) – Don’t count on the number one pick in the draft bringing home the ROY award this year. For one, only four quarterbacks have ever won the award. But more importantly, outside of Stephen Jackson, the Rams offense is downright dismal. It is hard to imagine Bradford compiling any worthy stats with the Rams’ offensive line and receiving corp. No Value.

Montario Hardesty (+1500) – If you are looking for a long shot look no further than the former Tennessee Volunteer. Fellow Browns’ running back Jerome Harrison ended the 2009 season in fantastic fashion rushing for 561 yards and 5 touchdowns. However, don’t expect him to come close to duplicating those numbers as the Browns might be better suited with a bruising back like Hardesty. Good Value.

Tim Tebow (+2000) – How can we forget about Tim Tebow? Many were shocked the Denver Broncos selected him in the first round. It is doubtful that Tebow will even start early on, unless the Broncos get off to a horrible start or Kyle Orton gets injured. Little Value.

Defense

Linebackers have had a stranglehold on the Defensive Rookie of the Year award over the past decade winning seven years in a row and nine out of the last ten years. However, taking a scan at the betting odds, it appears as if the linebacker streak ends this year.

Ndamukong Suh (+450) – The first defensive player selected in the draft is the co-favorite. Suh is an absolute beast and will anchor the Detroit Lions’ defensive line from the get-go. Before placing your Suh bets, it should be noted that a defensive tackle hasn’t won this award in 16 years. Average Value.

Eric Berry (+450) –The safety out of Tennessee is the prototype safety and is considered the best safety to enter the NFL since the late Sean Taylor. The position he plays could have a negative impact on his chances to win this award; a safety hasn’t taken home the Rookie of the Year Trophy in two decades. Average Value.

Gerald McCoy (+750) – Despite the defensive tackles poor showing in the ROY award, another one has the next shortest odds. Tampa Bay fans are counting on him to be the next Warren Sapp. Although his style is a little different, McCoy has the ability to make an impact right away. Good Value.

Rolando McClain (+1200) – If a linebacker is to win the award for the eighth straight year, the Raiders LB has the best shot. McClain was the top inside LB prospect in the draft and has great athleticism. It is hard to have faith in an Al Davis draft pick though. Good Value.

Taylor Mays (+1500) – If players were drafted on there physical attributes, the USC safety would have been the first overall pick. Unfortunately for Mays, he isn’t much of a football player. He lacks coverage skills and makes poor decisions. No Value.

Brandon Graham (+1500) – The Eagles are thirsty for an outside pass rusher to compliment Trent Cole. Philly thought so highly of Graham this past April that they moved up in the first round to take what many experts believed was the best pass rusher in the draft. With the Eagles’ blitz happy defense, the former Michigan Wolverine could tally double digit sacks. Very Good Value.

To see the odds on the rest of the players, check them out at Sportsbook.com.