Ilya Kovalchuk: How The Kovalchuk Decision Affects The Flyers

Shortly after 5 p.m. yesterday, arbitrator Richard Bloch sided with the NHL and rejected Ilya Kovalchuk's recently signed 17-year, $102 million contract.

Despite this decision, it remains likely that the Russian sniper will remain with the New Jersey Devils.  Following the announcement of the decision, Devils GM Lou Lamoriello released a statement that discussions have resumed with Kovalchuk, and that he is hopeful that a new contract will be forthcoming.

New Jersey will likely be forced to give Kovalchuk a contract with a higher overall cap hit, hamstringing its future salary situation.

At first glance, this turn of events appears to be a wholly positive one for the Philadelphia Flyers, by hurting the financial flexibility of a division rival.

However, a footnote on the 19th page of the decision has likely frightened both Flyers fans and the Flyers front office.

Bloch specifically mentions contracts signed by Chris Pronger, Marc Savard, Roberto Luongo, and Marian Hossa as examples of potential cap circumvention.

Then, he states that these contracts "are being investigated currently with at least the possibility of a subsequent withdrawal of the registration."

According to Bloch, the NHL is looking into potentially rescinding these deals, despite the fact that the contracts were originally approved.

As a result, the Flyers could find themselves in Gary Bettman's crosshairs next.

If the NHL decided to retroactively reject the contract of Chris Pronger and it held up in court, the Flyers star would become a free agent.

The prospect of losing the most important player during the Flyers' Cinderella playoff run should scare every fan of the team.

However, the chances of the NHL taking such action versus the Flyers and succeeding appear unlikely at best.

To start, the Kovalchuk deal is a far more egregious violation of the spirit of the CBA than Pronger's contract.

Ilya Kovalchuk would have made 93 percent of his money over the first 58 percent of the contract.

Chris Pronger will earn 95 percent of his contract over the first 71 percent of the deal.  Certainly a front-loaded contract, but compared to Kovalchuk's rejected deal, it seems almost reasonable.

Even Bloch acknowledged in his decision that "the figures in Kovalchuk's case are demonstrably more dramatic" than any of the other deals.

In fact, Pronger's deal isn't even the second-worst cap circumvention.  That honor would likely go to Marc Savard, whose name was also mentioned in the decision.

Savard's contract would pay him 91 percent of his money over the first 57 percent of the contract, which kicks in starting in 2010.

Therefore, if the NHL chooses another contract to reject, Savard's would likely be the first.

However, the possibility remains that the NHL will attempt to reject all of the contracts mentioned in the decision.

If that is the case, the Flyers likely have a better chance to win their case than any of the other parties.

This is because they have taken a risk with the Pronger deal that none of the other teams have.

Namely, the fact that it is a 35-plus contract.  The CBA mandates that any contract signed by a player 35 or older will count against the cap until it expires, even if the player decides to retire.

One of the key reasons why Kovalchuk's contract was overturned by Bloch was the possibility that the left winger would retire once the contract dropped to $550,000 per year.

If the 27-year-old Kovalchuk retired, the yearly $6 million cap hit would disappear off the Devils' books.  The same would be true for Savard (33), Hossa (31) and Luongo (31).

The Flyers do not have that same luxury with the now 35-year-old Pronger.

While the defenseman will only be paid $525,000 in the final two years of his contract, the cap hit of $4,921,429 will remain on the Flyers' books for the entirety of the contract's length, even if Pronger retires from hockey.  This is because the extension does not kick in until the upcoming 2010-11 season, when Pronger will be 35 years old.

The front-loaded contract does allow for the Flyers to lower Pronger's overall cap hit, making it easier for the current incarnation of the roster to exist. 

However, the Flyers do not have the ability to escape from the final few years of the contract, as the Devils could have done with Kovalchuk.  They will be stuck with a 42-year-old defenseman taking up almost $5 million worth of cap space.

Therefore, Pronger's contract is far more of a gamble than any of the other contracts mentioned in Bloch's decision.

If the NHL actually were to reject Pronger's deal, the Flyers would have a very strong case that the deal does not circumvent the CBA at all. 

The 35-plus element of the contract makes this a classic "sweet now, painful later" deal.

As a result, the chances of Chris Pronger becoming a free agent as a result of the Kovalchuk decision are slim at best.  Flyers fans should breathe easy.