Fantasy Football Brothers RB Draft Philosophy

Welcome to Fantasy Football Brothers. This week we roll into week two of our Free Draft Kit. This week we are going to take a hard look at the RBs. Today we will have the philosophy, on Wednesday we will have our position ranks and write ups. Friday we will have our Preseason RB award ceremony. Also this week we are dropping our college draft kit for all of our college fantasy players.

Every fantasy football league is set up differently with different lineups, rules, and different scoring. That means every fantasy draft is different. Most ranks that are out there are either geared towards a standard scoring league or a P.P.R. formatted league which means the draft cheat sheets that you are looking at are not customized for you or your league. It also could mean that you are using a cheat sheet from a magazine that was published and produced over three months ago. Which leads to a shameless plug. Be on the look out for our brand new drafting tool that we will release by the end of the week.

Today we start with the state of the running back position, and we also dive into drafting philosophies. I told our readers last year that the drafting of back to back running backs is pretty much dead, and it still is. There are still people that live and die by drafting the back to back method. There are others that draft by the old RB-RB-WR-QB-WR philosophy, or some other variation of this formula.

 

Brandon Jacobs 835 Yards Rushing On His 224 Carries Equals A Lousy Yards Per Carry. A (3.7 y.p.c.) Is A Great Indicator Of A Poor Season

Time Shares

The first problem is the splitting of carries and with that comes the most hated phrase in fantasy football. Time share. Also known as the Running Back By Committee. I hate those words, because loosely translated in fantasy football language R.B.B.C. really means 16 weeks of potential anxiety and headaches.

I went back through the last five years of stats for running backs and looked at how many backs had over 300 carries, how many more had over 250 carries and how many backs went over a thousand yards. The numbers do not lie. While the number of running backs that rush for over 1,000 yards in a season has pretty much remained steady over the last five years, the 250-300 carry barrier is on the decline.

Year	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
300+ Carries	10	10	6	5	6
250+ Carries	17	17	12	13	9
1,000+ Yards Rushing	16	23	17	16	15

Frank Gore 229 Carries 1,120 Yards 4.9 Y.P.C. A High Y.P.C. Is Usually A Sign Of High Impact Numbers

First lets address the obvious. In almost every type of league the top four picks are solidified for the most part. Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice are going to go in some sort of order 1-4. Yes in P.P.R. leagues, WR Andre Johnson could sneak into the top four picks and in touchdown heavy pass leagues that award six points per touchdown one of the top tier QBs could potentially go.  

But for most of us the real interesting stuff begins when you are drafting outside of the first four draft picks. That is where the value based drafting comes in. This isn’t some revolutionary way of looking at numbers, this is simply looking at who gives you the most value at that particular pick regardless of position. 

By drafting the best available player you are allowing yourself the flexibility to build a squad that scores the most potential points period and you are not pigeon holding yourself by using some outdated archaic formula. After all the name of the game is to score the most points.

Running backs are typically safer picks because they offer some consistency week in and week out because their usually steady scorers. While the WRs are typically more boom or bust each week. A few years ago when there were 10 RBs getting 300 plus carries a season, you would have a better idea who would be expected to get those carries and you knew the likely worst case scenario would be that your RB would get a minimum of a thousand yards and a few scores.

As the number of Running backs that receive 250-300 plus carries continues to decline there is that much less room for potential backs to reach easy numbers. Teams are still running the ball, some are running more, the thing is most teams are just splitting carries and with each team it differs. There is the hot hand, the matchup play, the goal line back, the change of pace back, the power back, the between the 20′s back, the closer, short yardage specialist, passing down back and the 3rd down back. That is a ton of job titles to sort through.  

This year there are only 14ish elite WRs, but there are at least 30 backs that are capable of running for a thousand yards or more. But we know that only half that many will likely reach those numbers. I know if I’m drafting after the four spot, I try and cut out some risk and I go with WR Andre Johnson after that probably either QB Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. I love RB Frank Gore and Michael Turner this year but if I’m at five I probably pass on them. I like Steven Jackson too but I would probably pass on them because they all have holes in their game, namely all have significant injury histories. The other three guys I said I would take give me more value, because they are ranked at the top of their respective positions.   

There is better value these days drafting RBs in later rounds after the elite backs are gone. Now I’m not saying don’t draft a RB for the sake of not drafting one. I’m saying open up your mind and realize all the potential players your team could have by not going back to back RB.

I just want to point out a few situations that happened last year. Now this is not scare tactics by any means I won four out of the five leagues I played in last year. I had late picks in almost all of the drafts. But what I did was build a solid foundation around the players that were available to me in each draft. I never reach for a player just to fill some positional quota that has been forced upon us for the last 20 years. The NFL game has changed which means the fantasy game has changed and you have to be able to be flexible when drafting. Those that live in the past are destined to be left there.

There is nothing wrong with drafting an elite QB and two elite WRs. Then going after your running backs in round four, is ok. On the other side of the coin last year Steven Jackson slid to me in two different drafts late in the first round. I liked SJack a lot but I thought there was no way he would slide that far to me. Then an elite WR went off the board and so did an elite QB, and because of that scenario, Jackson who should have gone somewhere 5-8 landed to me at 11 and 12. That is value that was too great to pass up, even with his injury history I had to take him. That is value based drafting. 

I’m not in love with RB Rashard Mendenhall but if he slid back down to me at the second round, because there is too much value at that spot. Now if you are picking at the end of the round that means you likely will have selected back to back RBs. That is ok, because it gives you the best value. Now if there was a player that you hate and they fall to you, go with your gut and stay away from him.

If a positional run happens don’t be part of the run unless it just works out that way for you. Paul wrote about this the other day, don’t panic when a run happens. Good value is what you consider good value. If you educate yourself around what running back by committee’s are fantasy worthy and what ones to stay away from you are already way ahead of the game.

Identifying A Good RBBC and Staying Away From A Bad RBBC

Carolina’s backfield is outstanding and any owner would love to have either back. There are RBBC’s that are more draft worthy than others. RBBC backs can be easier to gauge if they play on a team that has three things. A commitment to the run, a solid defense that allows the team to keep games close, and has at least an above average offensive line. Think Carolina, or Miami.

RBBC’s are bad for you when a team does not have defined roles, solid offensive lines, or the defense is porous and forces the team to abandon the run and start chucking. Think, Seattle, or potentially Chicago or Kansas City. New England (While N.E. meets some of the positive criteria, the constant injuries and uncertainty in the roles have made them a very poor RBBC Team ).

Practice Makes Perfect

Once you identify the players you like, mock draft as much as you can without getting yelled at divorced or separated. I tell people that email us this exact advice all the time. Mock it up what scenario do you like? Do you feel comfortable with an elite RB and an elite QB with a third tier WR? Do you like having two top tier WRs and and a borderline RB1?

Try out different scenarios, see what players get drafted where, and watch how many talented RBs drop to you starting at the end of the second round, it happens almost everytime because other teams will be left scrambling to pick up the left over WRs and QBs because you and probably others are not drafting back to back RBs.  

Meanwhile load up on backs because you feel comfortable with the core you have, and now you just need to build around it. I love to build big RB depth because chances are at least one of the guys sitting on your bench will be great trade bait down the road. Every draft is different. Plan for that. Don’t panic, when your guy goes right in front of you, because if you have run a few mock drafts, you have a great idea who else should be there.  

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