Fantasy Football: The Top 10 Undervalued Prospects From Four Top Sites

Every Friday, Fantasy Football Spin, FFSpin.com, picks a theme and works with the best fantasy football sites on the web to bring excellent content to our readers. This week we looked at Undervalued Players for 2010 and between four websites we came up with 10 players that are undervalued according to average draft position.

We will be posting our Overvalued Players coverage from five different top fantasy football websites this week as well. Check out FFSpin.com on Friday, August 13th for our Sleeper coverage. Like every Friday, we will post one player every hour starting at 9:00 AM EST from the best fantasy football sites around.

Ryan Grant, ADP 25, RB No. 13

Fantasy Depth Charts, FantasyDC.com, is one of favorite FF sites. Its sole intention is to ignore other fantasy football opinions and provide divergent analysis based on data, up to the minute information, and intuition...

RYAN GRANT - RB, Green Bay Packers

Average Draft Position 25, RB No. 13

I get it. Everyone wants his or her second or third round picks to have a certain wow factor. Everyone wants his or her second or third round picks to have first-round upside.

Ryan Grant is a player that has never received much respect in the fantasy community in the wow factor. And really, Ryan Grant has really never been viewed much more than a high-end RB2. However, at the end of the day fantasy football is won with numbers and Ryan Grant’s numbers are perpetually undervalued.

Do you know how many backs had 1200-plus rushing yards in both of the last two years? Three; Adrian Peterson, Thomas Jones, and Ryan Grant. Who scored more rushing touchdowns than Ryan Grant the last five weeks of 2009? No one. That type of production should be fought for, but in today’s fantasy football drafts a Ryan Grant selection is viewed so often as “ho hum” and sometimes even met with contempt. Don’t be one of the ones that follows the stupidity of crowds.

A large part of believing in Ryan Grant is whether or not you believe in Green Bay and our last impression of the Packers was not a great one. Green Bay found itself down big early to Arizona in a crazy Wild Card playoff matchup where no defense could be found. Aaron Rodgers threw for over 400 yards with four touchdowns while Ryan Grant managed just 64 yards on 11 carries. You walk away from that game feeling as though Green Bay’s defense can’t make a stop and Aaron Rodgers can’t be stopped. When, in truth, Green Bay was one of the more underrated defenses in 2009.

Green Bay actually allowed the second fewest yards in the regular season. Green Bay has a young defense that appears to have had one bad game against a Hall of Fame-level quarterback with great weapons around him. If you believe that Green Bay can handle teams in 2010 with its underrated defense and stud quarterback Aaron Rodgers, then you should believe that Ryan Grant will get many chances to run the football.

Not many running backs have the high floor that Grant has, and not many have the chance to be a touchdown machine in a great offense. Think about who are the true “feature backs” in elite offenses in today’s NFL. Adrian Peterson immediately comes to mind and then you find yourself searching. Indianapolis, New Orleans, Dallas, and New England all use a running back by committee approach.

Really Adrian Peterson and Ryan Grant are at the top of your list of true feature backs in great offenses. Ryan Grant finds himself at ADP RB13 in redraft right now. He is behind guys like Ryan Mathews, who have never received an NFL snap. And also behind guys like Shonn Greene and Jamaal Charles, who have not proven that they can handle the full load of a season in the NFL.

If healthy, Ryan Grant has a floor of 1000 total yards but very well could achieve 1500 total yards and over 12 touchdowns. Would it surprise anyone to see Ryan Grant score over 15 touchdowns in this offense? Veteran guys that just get the job done are seemingly always undervalued.

Think about all of these factors when you are searching for a low end RB1 or high end RB2.

Michael Bush, ADP 88, RB No. 36

Fantasy Football Trader, FantasyFootballTrader.com, is one of my personal favorites. No one goes more in depth than these guys and you will see from the three entries they have here that they know their stuff...

Michael Bush - RB, Oakland Raiders

Average Draft Position 88, RB No. 36

Although Bush received an inconsistent workload as the backup and spot starter for Justin Fargas (released) last season, you could make a strong case that Bush was Oakland’s most effective runner. Although he ranked second on Oakland in carries (123), the big and burly Bush finished first in rushing yards (589), yards per carry (4.8), and rushing touchdowns (three), to go along with 17 catches for 105 yards with no receiving scores.

Fantasy-wise, Bush produced when he was given a heavy workload, as evidenced by his two 100-yard rushing efforts on the season.

Fantasy owners have been selecting Bush in the upper eighth round of mock drafts as the fantasy RB36, on average (low-end No. 3 fantasy running back value), but we think the fourth-year pro will outperform his ADP.

Bush, not Darren McFadden, has been working with Oakland’s first-team offense since Fargas was shipped out of town. Although there is supposed to be a training camp battle for the starting tailback job between Bush and McFadden, many think Bush is more suited for the role, because he is clearly the superior early-down back.

Bush has shown the ability to be a workhorse runner when given the chance: He rushed for 119 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs and rushed for 133 yards and one score against the Denver Broncos in 2009, and rolled up 177 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers two years ago.

Although the 6'1", 245-pound Bush does not have elite speed, he is a nice straight-ahead rusher and runs with some power between the tackles. Since he outweighs McFadden by 35 pounds, Bush is probably going to receive regular goal-line carries at the very least. With a “real” quarterback under center to stretch the field–Jason Campbell has replaced JaMarcus Russell (released) as Oakland’s starter–Bush should find regular room to run.

Even if the Raiders make one more attempt to hand the starting job to McFadden–they have $61 million invested in him–Bush is still the Oakland running back to own. The Raiders schedule, by the way, is softer than most.

Although Bush probably won’t crack the top-25 fantasy running backs, he has some upside and could produce high-end No. 3 fantasy running back numbers.

Zach Miller, ADP 118, TE No. 11

Rookie Blitz, RookieBlitz.com, is the leading authority when it comes to rookies in fantasy football. But as you will read, its expertise extends far beyond just rookies...

Zach Miller - TE, Oakland Raiders

Average Draft Position 118, TE No. 11

Zach Miller almost cracked the top 10 fantasy TEs in 2009, with luminaries like JaMarcus Russell and Bruce Gradkowski throwing him the football. Miller tied for the team lead in targets with rookie Louis Murphy (92).

Miller has a chance at a breakout season with Jason Campbell at the helm. Miller can put his underrated playmaking skills to good use with Campbell checking down often to the TE. Miller scored on an 86-yard touchdown reception versus Philadelphia in Week Six and ranked sixth in the NFL with 379 yards after catch. With an accurate QB, an increase in targets, and the further development of the young Oakland WRs, Miller can be a top eight TE at the fraction of the cost to your fantasy team.

Pierre Thomas, ADP 33, RB No. 13

Fantasy Football Spin, FFSpin.com, takes all of the NFL news and tells you what it means in fantasy football terms. We are also soon to unveil the most accurate website from 2009 as far as weekly rankings. With the algorithm we developed along with it, we will also be "Ranking the Rankings" for every week in 2010...

Pierre Thomas - RB, New Orleans Saints

Average Draft Position 33, RB No. 15

Despite only giving Pierre Thomas a second-round tender, the Saints did not draft a running back in the 2010 Draft and seem to be wising up to the fact that signing Frenchy long term could be the answer.

In 2009, Thomas missed two games due to injury and finished with 1,100 combined yards (800 rushing) and eight total touchdowns. He also battled a rib injury and was in a RBBC featuring Reggie Bush and Mike Bell.

After totalling 650 yards and five TDs in 2009, Bell signed an offseason deal with Philadelphia, which should make Thomas the primary red zone option for one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Thomas (21 percent) and Bell (17 percent) accounted for a combined 38 percent of the red zone touches in the Saints offense last season. By comparison Adrian Peterson accounted for 37 percent by himself for the Vikings. We, FFSpin, fully expect Thomas to gain a large portion of the work that Mike Bell had inside the 20 last season with a slight increase also going to Reggie Bush and to a lesser extent, third stringer Lynell Hamilton.

The Saints have the 18th most favorable schedule for running backs in 2010, including six division games against weaker defenses in St Louis, Tampa Bay, and Carolina (all ranked among the 10 worst rushing defenses in 2009). The opportunities the schedule presents aside, durability is a concern for Thomas. Like a true frenchman, he is a bit fragile.

Pierre has missed seven games in his three year career and battled knee and rib injuries last season. His current ADP of No. 33 overall (15th RB) seems fairly accurate but he has the upside to produce as a top 10 RB. Thomas should see more total touches as the bellcow in a New Orleans offense that averaged a league leading 32 points per game in 2009. Thomas has topped 1000 total yards the past two seasons while only averaging 138 carries.

With Mike Bell out of the picture, 200 carries are very possible, giving Thomas a legit shot at a breakout season. He makes for a high end RB2 in all fantasy leagues and a case can be made for selecting him in the second half of round two.

Alex Smith, ADP 134, QB No. 19

Here is number two on the day from Fantasy Football Trader, FantasyFootballTrader.com, who thinks that Alex Smith will make the most of his last chance to dodge the "Bust" label...

Alex Smith - QB, San Francisco 49ers

Average Draft Position 134, QB No. 19

Q: There has been a lot of talk about the 49ers being a sleeper offense in 2010 with the triple threat of Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis. Who presents the biggest value at my draft?

A: Oddly enough, I think the answer to that question will be D) None of the above. Let's quickly review the major components of the Niner's offense that proved to be very undervalued in 2009 prior to the additions of over 650 lbs. of first-round talent on the O-Line via the draft (Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati).

Frank Gore - ADP 1.06 handled 229 rushing attempts and scored 10 times on the ground. If the above mentioned rookies pan out along this O-line and take it from average to "very good," I don't think it's a stretch to say Gore has as good a shot as any RB to finish No. 1 overall by season's end. Still, with an ADP of 1.06, we can't really argue that his ceiling is far and away above his ADP.

Then we have Michael Crabtree. If you were to prorate his 10 game stats over a full season, he's looking at 125 targets in 2010. And considering he went for 48 catches, 625 yards, and two touchdowns without a moment of training camp prep as a rookie, suffice it to say that 125 targets is likely the starting point.

He should continue to improve his route running and be a very viable secondary option for QB Alex Smith. Crabtree sports an average draft position of 4.07 (17th WR overall). Given the presence of both Gore and Davis though, that position looks to be about right. I think he's still a year away from truly becoming option 1A in this passing game alongside Vernon Davis.

Speaking of Davis - ADP 5.04 as the third TE off the board overall. And there's no tangible reason why he shouldn't be. Davis had games where he was completely unstoppable last year, grabbing 78 catches for just shy of 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.

All impressive and all are off the board by pick No. 52 in the average mock draft as things stand now. Which leaves me baffled as to how the ring leader (Alex Smith) charged with facilitating all of the above is going...now get this...at 11.10 as the 18th QB overall.

From a comprehensive viewpoint, I simply can't see how one could believe all of the above to be true and still value Smith as a middle of the road backup fantasy QB. He is the 11th QB overall on my board and I dare say that's low. I won't be surprised if he crashes the top 10 party and currently represents one of the best values at the entire position.

Hines Ward, ADP 62, RB No. 24

Rookie Blitz, RookieBlitz.com, thinks the stars are aligning for Hines Ward and that he may have enough left in the tank to take advantage of circumstances and have one more big season....

Hines Ward - WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Average Draft Position 62, RB No. 24

At age 33, Hines Ward turned in his second consecutive top 15 fantasy season at WR and has shown no signs of slowing down. Ward turned in an impressive 2009 season with a 73.6 percent catch percentage on 129 targets after catching 69.2 percent of his 130 targets in 2008. Ward ranked sixth in the NFL in catch percentage, 10th in targets, and tied for seventh with 11 missed/broken tackles. Ward remained one of the best run-blocking wide receivers in the league.

Because Mike Wallace has generated more buzz this offseason, Ward remains severely underrated at this point, even as the top WR on the depth chart.

With the trade of Santonio Holmes to the Jets this offseason, Ward will see an increase in targets. Ward enters the season at age 34, and many fantasy owners will downgrade him in their rankings because they fear a drop-off in production. Furthermore, Ben Roethlisberger will miss 4-6 games due to suspension and there is talk from ownership wanting to return to a power-running philosophy.

These reasons will cause Ward to fall further than he should in your draft and all signs point to Ward posting his third top 15 season in a row.

Steve Smith, Carolina, ADP 39, WR No. 15

Fantasy Depth Charts, FantasyDC.com, in its second entry looks at why Steve Smith is going to outproduce the position he is being drafted at and how he is going to have another great season...

Steve Smith - WR, Carolina Panthers

Average Draft Position 39, WR No. 15

In an odd way I was somewhat relieved when Steve Smith broke his arm playing flag football in the offseason. As a Carolina homer I understand more than anyone how competitive Steve Smith is. Be it rec league, training camp, or preseason he can’t resist going all out on every play. It has gotten him into trouble as well.

In 2008 he suffered a severe concussion when he made a dangerous catch attempt across the middle in preseason. In 2006, he pulled a hamstring in Week Four of preseason and developed an ingrown toe nail. He also managed to get in a fight with Ken Lucas during preseason in 2008, which ended in a two-game suspension.

Steve Smith missing camp and preseason could actually be viewed as a good thing and should keep him rested and ready to go for the regular season. And don’t you be worried about Steve Smith playing Week One either. Smith even wanted to play after he broke his arm against the Giants in 2009, but the coaching staff would not allow it. When Peter King asked if he would be back for Week One Steve Smith replied “Positive, I’d bet my game check on it.” Steve is as gritty as they come, don’t doubt his ability to play well even if he is injured.

Aside of Steve Smith being undervalued because of his injuries, Steve Smith just might be undervalued even if he was healthy. Steve Smith has averaged over nine targets and almost six catches per game the past five years. There are only a handful of receivers that can better those numbers (Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald, T.J. Houshmanzadeh, and Anquan Boldin).

Last year we began to see a decline in production with Jake Delhomme at quarterback. With Jake Delhomme at the helm Smith managed just 6.1 yards per target. Well down from his 9.05 average he maintained from 2005-2008.

After Matt Moore took over Steve Smith’s numbers skyrocketed. In the four games with Moore he averaged 12.19 yards per target and almost 100 receiving yards a game. Muhsin Muhammed retired in the offseason, which means Carolina could rely even more heavily on Steve Smith in 2010. Right now Steve Smith is at WR15 ADP and still remains undervalued. Smith’s ADP remains behind talents that also have recently been on PUP (Sidney Rice, Marques Colston). And also behind receivers with new quarterbacks (Anquan Boldin, DeSean Jackson).

If Steve Smith remains healthy and can perform close to how he did with Moore late in 2009, he could approach his 103 reception, 1500 yard campaign he accomplished in 2005. And that type of production can be had in the fourth round in 12-team leagues.

Hakeem Nicks, ADP 56, WR No. 21

Fantasy Football Spin, FFSpin.com, is high on Giants sophomore WR Hakeem Nicks. Nicks has the physical tools, but there remain questions, however, as to whether or not the offensive system can accommodate two stud WRs...

Hakeem Nicks - WR, New York Giants

Average Draft Position 56, WR No. 21

Nicks has a nice combo of size (6’1", 212), strength, and speed, and looks like a prototypical NFL wide receiver. He missed time early in his rookie season due to nagging toe and wrist injuries but still performed admirably. If he can stay healthy Nicks is primed for a breakout year in 2010.

Nicks and Mario Manningham will battle for the starting No. 2 receiver position, but Nicks will ultimately win out. He is two inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than Manningham. He also has more dependable hands than the butterfingered Manningham, who will probably end up as a career No. 3 receiver.

In 2009, Nicks totaled close to 800 yards and six touchdowns despite the aforementioned injuries and should be a high upside WR3 in 2010. ESPN's Matthew Barry has him slated for 1,250 and 11 TDs, which seem like lofty predictions, but based on his the potential he showed as a rookie, those numbers are more than justified.

As an added bonus the Giants face the sixth most favorable schedule for wide receivers in 2010. His current ADP of 55 overall (WR21) has him going off the board in a tier with veterans Hines Ward, Donald Driver, and Chad Ochocinco–I much prefer the upside potential of the second-year receiver from North Carolina.

Matt Cassel, ADP 152, QB No. 23

Rookie Blitz, Rookieblitz.com, in its third and final selection for our Undervalued Players coverage tells us why the KC QB may be a draft day steal...

Matt Cassel - QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Average Draft Position 152, QB No. 23

There is reason for optimism for Kansas City, even after Matt Cassel struggled in his first season with the team. Cassel regressed in nearly every major category and fell from being the eight ranked fantasy QB in 2008 to 21^st in 2009.

Cassel works better underneath and with intermediate throws and may never be a downfield threat. Cassel was second in the league last year with 42 dropped passes by his receivers.

Cassel’s supporting cast in 2010 has improved with the additions of Thomas Jones, Jerheme Urban, and the drafting of Dexter McCluster. Charlie Weis was brought in to run the offense and retool the offense with more short and intermediate routes. Weis is a QB guru; he made Brady Quinn into a first-round pick while at Notre Dame and helped develop Tom Brady into one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Chiefs have one of the easiest schedules this season, and Cassel presents high upside at his current ADP.

Justin Forsett, ADP 63, RB No. 26

Fantasy Football Trader, FantasyFootballTrader.com, brings our coverage to a close by analyzing Justin Forsett. Opinions of the diminutive Seattle back are all over the board. Many experts think he is ready for a breakout season and an almost equal number think he will prove ill prepared to carry the load...

Justin Forsett - RB, Seattle Seahawks

Average Draft Position 63, RB No. 26

With a new coaching regime led by head coach Pete Carroll, I am envisioning that the inexplicable dedication to Julius Jones will be over in Seattle. Last season, it was clear that Forsett was the more talented and explosive back, and the offense as a whole played better with him in the lineup. It has been reported by the Los Angeles Times that Forsett has become “an instant Pete Carroll favorite.” Below is a snapshot of last season’s stats between these two running backs:

Forsett: 969 total yards, 5.4 average-per-rush, five touchdowns, 41 receptions, 155 touches

Jones: 895 total yards, 3.7 average-per-rush, four touchdowns, 35 receptions, 212 touches

Forsett accumulated more total yards and touchdowns than Jones with 57 fewer touches. While Jones and Forsett have been splitting first-team reps throughout the offseason so far, it seems only a matter of time before Forsett takes over the starting role for good.

Don’t let his 5’8” and 194 pound frame fool you into thinking he cannot handle a sizable workload, because he is built with good muscle mass, and he possesses excellent lower body strength. Former Seattle head coach Jim Mora said it best last season when talking about Forsett: “He's short, but he's really not little...he's powerful."

This type of muscle build is what separates players like Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice from other shorter backs who lack durability, and Forsett possesses similar muscle mass as those two studs (I’m not putting him in their category, but pointing out the similar build.).

Forsett also proved capable of scoring in goal-to-go situations, as three of his four rushing touchdowns were from inside the four-yard line, including a one-yard touchdown against the stout Minnesota Vikings defense in Week 11 of last season.

While Forsett will likely be involved in some type of time share situation with Jones, and perhaps even Leon Washington, who is recovering from a compound leg fracture suffered last season while playing for the Jets, he should see a significant increase in opportunities from what he was given in 2009.

If Forsett does earn the starting role, he could be a steal in the 10/11 round of fantasy drafts since he is currently being drafted as the No. 44 fantasy running back (No. 45 PPR), which means he is being considered a low-end No. 4.

Consider that last year Forsett finished as a No. 33 fantasy running back (No. 28 PPR) which is a solid No. 3, and he only started getting significant playing time over the second half of the season. So the worst case scenario, and he does not get an increased role in the offense, you will already be getting value by grabbing a No. 3 fantasy running back at a No. 4 price. More than likely though, he should build off that second half performance of last season, giving him a legitimate shot to finish as a No. 2 fantasy back.

It is understandable to be wary of the Seattle backfield situation since it seems unpredictable and crowded at the present time. However, I notice that there are several other running backs that play in crowded backfields and carry various forms of risk but are being drafted much higher because of their explosive abilities: Felix Jones, CJ Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reggie Bush (to name a few) are all players who are being drafted in a range of fourth to seventh round. Forsett possesses as much explosive ability and upside as any of these players, but can be drafted four to seven rounds later. Definitely target Forsett in all scoring formats.