Wake Up! Five RB Sleepers for 2010

Once upon a time, actually not so long ago, if you didn't get a top tier running back with your #1 pick it was sure to mean fantasy death. We all knew it. We would show up on draft day with our chin up and a hop in our step, full of excitement, only to learn we drew the #8 pick.

Panic would set in and we started studying cheat sheets wondering who to pick. We surely can't take a QB or WR with our first pick? So what did we do? Well, we took the 8th best running back every time. Then, typically, we took the 12th best running back on our way back, and in some cases, took the 24th or so best running back in the third round.

Back then, the top 30-35 running backs would be gone in the first 6 rounds, and then we were left with scraping the bottom of the barrel, or drafting handcuffs in the later rounds hoping for an injury to a top tier guy.

My guess would be that most fantasy football owners today truly believe they need to get a running back with their first two picks, but just as the NFL has changed, fantasy football has changed as well. Teams have implemented the RBBC (running back by committee), and fantasy owners have to adapt.

With the NFL becoming a passing league, owners are filling their rosters with top tier QBs, WRs, and TEs, and trying to find “sleeper” RBs later in drafts.

We uncover 5 RBs that should out produce their current draft position, and hence should be nice sleepers for you in your upcoming drafts.

Arian Foster, Texans

Foster watched most of 2009 from the sidelines, as Kubiak started Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats, and Chris Brown in a frustrating rotation that varied from week to week. All three backs had fumbling problems that caused them to lose their job at one point or another. Foster was given a chance in week 15, and you guessed it, he fumbled, and was benched. He was given another chance in the last two games of the season, and he dominated. He averaged 5.5 YPC, 216 yards rushing, and 3 TDs in those two games. Ben Tate was brought in to compete as a rookie, Slaton will return healthy, and once again Kubiak will be frustrating owners throughout the 2010 season. Early reports out of Houston are stating that Tate is having trouble grasping the offense. This could open the door for Foster to become the starter and keep the job. Foster has great potential at his current draft position, and the Texans RB has great upside in fantasy.

Michael Bush, Raiders

Darren McFadden has not proved that he can run between the tackles and be a workhorse RB in the NFL. He too often fails to break tackles, and I unable to utilize his blazing speed. Michael Bush was a highly touted RB coming out of college, before a broken leg sidelined him in his senior season. He has only shown flashes of what he can do with the starting job, as indicated by his 177 yard, 2 TD effort in the last game of the 2008 season. In that game, the Raiders ultimately knocked the Bucs out of playoff contention, and is the reason why we are blessed with Jon Gruden in the MNF booth. With Jason Campbell taking the reins at QB, the Raiders finally have a competent player at the position. The passing game should be better than it has been in years. This will give the Raiders more scoring opportunities. Look for Bush to be used on most rushing downs, as well as at the stripe. He could finish with 1,000 yards, and 10 TDs in this offense.

Donald Brown, Colts

When Brown was drafted by Bill Polian, he was quoted as saying that Brown reminded him of Thurman Thomas (who Polian also drafted). His 2009 season was plagued by injuries, and resulted in a lack of production. Joseph Addai quietly had a solid season, without injury, and Brown was never able to shine. The Colts will continue to use both backs, but it could be Brown who takes over as the featured back at some point this season. Brown gives the Colts an explosive element that Addai lacks. Addai is in a contract year, and will most likely not be on the 2011 roster. Look for the Colts to see what they have in Brown in 2010. Passing on Addai in the early rounds and grabbing Brown late, may be the biggest no-brainer in fantasy drafts this season.

Marion Barber, Cowboys

Barber played practically the entire 2009 season with a hole in his quadriceps, but still ended the season with more yards, receptions, and TDs than Felix Jones. Felix Jones is regarded as being the Cowboy RB poised for a breakout season, but his propensity for injury has held him back. The word out of Dallas is that Felix is up to 225 pounds, but I don't see that being the problem. He hurt his knee last season running out of bounds, no serious contact. He missed 11 games in the past two seasons, and although he only missed 2 in 2009, he was limited in almost every game after the injury. Prior to the injury, he was averaging 9.7 YPC, and after the injury, 4.5 YPC, which was still respectable, but the explosiveness was limited. The Barbarian could go back to his 'closer' role, which gives him a best shot at playing a healthy season. In 2006-07 he relished in that 'closer' role, as he had 28 TDs in that time span.

Justin Forsett, Seahawks

In 2009, we waited all season for Jim Mora, Jr. to let Forsett loose in the offense. It wasn’t until an injury to Julius Jones that we got to see what Forsett could do. In the three games he started, Forsett totaled 368 yards and scored 4 TDs. With new OC Jeremy Bates, and offensive line guru Alex Gibbs, the rush offense will be a ‘one cut’ system that will cater to Forsett’s strengths. The Seahawks drafted highly touted rookie tackle Russell Okung, and brought in free agent TE Chris Baker to provide additional run blocking. Julius Jones, Quinton Ganther, and Leon Washington pose little threat to Forsett’s value in 2010. Washington is his biggest threat, but he is still recovering from a broken leg, so remains to be seen if he can produce. All signs point to a breakout season for Forsett, as he could end the season as a top 10-15 RB.

Josh Cohen is co-founder and writer of http://www.fantasyfanplay.com/

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