The Aints: Why The High-Octane Saints Have Limited Fantasy Appeal

The New Orleans Saints have one of the most explosive, dynamic offenses in the NFL.  This must mean they have fantasy stars pasted all over their roster, right?  Wrong!  The Saints have one legitimate fantasy star on their team in Drew Brees, another (Pierre Thomas) who is a nice RB2/Flex option, and a bunch of guys that get overvalued on draft day because they play for this high-powered offense.  What about Marques Colston you say?  Of course, he has to be a number one option, right?  Wrong again...and I'll explain why, as I break him down, and all the other Saints that have a lot of "aint" in them.  Don't get me wrong, the Saints are an amazing offense, but with so many options, I'm not going to rely on them week to week...are you?

Marques Colston

In most fantasy circles, Colston is easily regarded as a top 15 wide receiver.  Sounds good, right?  Grab him in the third round as a WR1 after going RB-RB, or RB-QB in the first two?  Only problem is, Colston isn't a WR1.  Colston has one season (2007) in which he put up WR1 statistics.  In that year, he finished with 98 catches, 1,202 yards, and 11 touchdowns.  For the record, this is the only season in which he has caught over 70 passes, topped 1,100 yards, and scored double-digit touchdowns.  In 2009, Santana Moss and Donald Driver both had the same number of catches as Colston (70), and both Derrick Mason and Davone Bess had more catches.  Are any of these guys valued near Colston?  Not even close.  Out of all the aforementioned players, Driver is the closest in ADP, and he is being picked three rounds later.  Colston had micro-fracture surgery heading into 2009, and recently had another knee surgery, which should be a red flag to fantasy owners.  The Saints deny it's anything serious, but if I wasn't hesitant on him before, I sure am now.  Colston may be the #1 option on the Saints, but with Robert Meachem, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, and Reggie Bush as receiving options, he is just another target to Drew Brees.

Three players with similar ADP's I'd rather have:  C. Benson, R. Grant, T. Brady

Three WR's with later ADP's I'd rather have:  H. Nicks, M. Wallace, W. Welker

Reggie Bush

Last year I made the mistake of thinking Reggie Bush was going to live up to the "upside" label put on him.  After all, before an injury ended his 2008 season, he was on pace to catch nearly 100 passes.  Heading into 2009, I thought he was going to mimic his 2006 statistics, which is the only year he ever lived up to the hype.  After being burned time and time again, I'm here to tell you 2006 was a long time ago.  This is back when Marvin Harrison and Roy E. Williams were top 5 receivers, and LT was the clear-cut #1 running back.  Since that 2006 season, Bush has averaged 458 yards rushing, 397 yards receiving, and 168 total touches per season.  To put that into perspective, both Mike Bell and Julius Jones had more CARRIES, not TOUCHES, than that in 2009.  Even Steve Slaton, Ryan Moats, and Derrick Ward rushed for more yards in 2009.  In 2009, Bush set career lows for carries, receptions, and yards from scrimmage.  So tell me again why this guy is being taken in the 6th-7th round of fantasy drafts?  I'll tell you, that infamous word tossed we toss around so loosely--"upside".  His numbers from a year ago aren't even draftable, but because of his name, his fame, and his team, he is being drafted earlier than much more serviceable players.  If you want to roll the dice on picking out his one big game of the year, then good luck.  Bush never has, and never will put up consistent numbers week in and week out.  Here's one more Saint that "aint" making it onto my roster, and he shouldn't yours either.

Three players with similar ADP's I'd rather have:  R. Williams, M. Wallace, M. Barber

Three RB's with later ADP's I'd rather have:  M. Hardesty, C. Williams, M. Bush

Robert Meachem

In 2009, Robert Meachem showed why the Saints drafted him in the first round of 2007...for about 5 games.  From weeks 9-13, Meachem had 346 yards receiving, and six touchdowns.  For the other 11 games, Meachem totaled a grotesque 376 yards and three touchdowns.  That's an average of 34 yards per game.  Let's clear the air on a couple things:  First, Meachem made a big name for himself in the height of his 5 game stretch against the Redskins in week 13, when not only did he total 142 yards receiving, he also saved their undefeated season at the time by ripping a Drew Brees intercepted pass away from a Redskin defender and returning it for a TD.  He was given the "big play" label, yet only had one game in 2009 in which he had more than five receptions, and only one game over 100 yards.  Casting further doubt, he only topped 90 yards one other time.  And just when fantasy owners decided to trust him for the fantasy playoffs, he disappointed them with only one touchdown, and not games over 66 yards in weeks 14-16.  Currently, Meachem is being selected near the end of round 7.  I definitely "aint" reaching for him that early, and probably wouldn't touch him until round 10.

Three players with similar ADP's I'd rather have:  T.J. Houshmandzadeh, M. Ryan, C. Williams

Three WR's with later ADP's I'd rather have:  M. Floyd, D. Aromashodu, S. Holmes

Jeremy Shockey

I have the hardest time comprehending, in the deepest tight end pool ever, how Shockey is even drafted.  My website, fantasyfanplay.com, currently has him ranked 17th overall, and I can tell you that's a generous ranking.  With the depth of tight end talent where it is, why would a guy who had one game with over 75 yards receiving in 2009, and three total touchdowns even be a fantasy option?  I have an anwer...because he is high-profile, constantly in the media, and plays on the Super Bowl Champs.  Shockey has six touchdowns over the last 3 seasons, and at 30 years old, I can't see a resurrection occurring any time soon.  Furthermore, Shockey hasn't played a full season since, well, actually...never.  He has two seasons in 2005-2006 in which he scored 14 touchdowns and caught over 60 passes.  He has been on fantasy cruise control ever since, burning owners every year.  In 2010, where there are legitimately 15 fantasy relevant tight ends, leave Shockey for waiver wire fodder where he belongs.  One thing is for sure, I "aint" touching him.

Three players with similar ADP's I'd rather have:  T. Choice, E. Doucet, D. Bess

Three TE's with later ADP's I'd rather have:  H. Miller, B. Pettigrew, J. Grisham

Devery Henderson/Lance Moore

Henderson had his best year in 2009, posting 51 receptions for 804 yards, but managed to find the endzone just twice.  That gives him 16 touchdowns over a 5 year career, averaging just over three per season.  Henderson actually had more catches, more yards, and more 100 yard games than teammate Robert Meachem, but his TD totals and inconsistency have made it tough on fantasy owners to trust him.  He had nine games in 2009 in which he had less than 50 yards receiving.  With the return of Lance Moore, Henderson's numbers may take a hit in 2010, considering the number of options the Saints have on offense.

Lance Moore missed much of the 2009 season due to injury, missing essentially 11 games, so we have to go back to 2008 in which he posted 79 receptions, 928 yards, and 10 touchdowns.  Now those are quality fantasy numbers.  If healthy, Moore could return to the #2 WR option on the Saints offense, leaving him as a decent fantasy option, but this is yet to be determined.  I think he has better upside than either Meachem or Henderson, but it's all speculation at this point.

Henderson and Moore are currently being selected around round 14 of fantasy drafts.  Moore is essentially the last wide receiver taken according to fantasy football calculator, meaning, there is nothing to lose with drafting him.  Depending on how an owner's particular draft has played out, there may be better options that late in the draft.  Personally, I probably wouldn't draft either guy due to the inconsistent nature of the Saints wide receivers.  At that point in the draft, I'd rather take a backup that could become a productive fantasy option if the starter in front of them was lost due to injury.  Regardless, fantasy leagues aren't won in rounds 14-16, so it's irrelevant.

Three players with similar ADP's I'd rather have:  J. Dwyer, M. Hasselbeck, D. Garrard

Three WR's I'd rather have if available:  Jac. Jones, Jam. Jones, A. Benn

With all the hoopla that surrounds the Saints offense, in terms of fantasy production, there are only two options who offer consistent production.  Obviously, Drew Brees is a fantasy star and worthy of being drafted anywhere outside of the first round, and Pierre Thomas.  

Thomas, is being selected towards the end of round 3, but I feel he is probably more of a 4th round selection.  With him, it's just a matter of touches.  He averaged 5.4 yards per carry a year ago, and scored 8 touchdowns.  Had Mike Bell not been there to vulture goal line carries, Thomas could have easily scored 12 TD's.  Anyone who watched the Saints post-season a year ago could clearly see that Thomas is the Saints best offensive player not named Brees.  Thomas can score from anywhere on the field, yes Jay Payton, even the goal line, so please don't let Lynell Hamilton become this years Mike Bell.   When targeting Thomas, make sure he is targeted as an RB2/Flex, and not an RB1.  He doesn't have the workload to be a #1 option, but as an RB2, he can definitely help any fantasy team.

For such a high-octane offense, there is plenty of "aint" in Saint.  I love to watch this offense, but the reason it is so good, is also the same reason it so frustrating for fantasy owners.  The Saints have too many options on the field, and week in and week out, we just don't know who the productive guy is going to be outside of Drew Brees.  Trying to guess which week Meachem, Bush, Henderson, or Moore is going to be productive is playing fantasy Russian Roulette, and I my friends just "aint" doing that.

Josh Cohen is co-founder and writer of http://www.fantasyfanplay.com

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