NFL Predictions: Top 20 Tight Ends for Fantasy Football in 2010

Not too long ago the tight end position was the thinnest position in fantasy football with stars such as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates being head and shoulders above the competition. 

As NFL offenses have emphasized the pass in recent seasons, the tight end position's role in the passing game has expanded.  From a fantasy perspective, the decision has shifted from "should I try to grab one of the few elite tight ends" to taking a wait and see approach at the position.

In 2009 eight tight ends caught 76 or more passes with five of those eight catching between 76-79 passes.   Nine tight ends gained more than 789 yards with six of the nine in the 789-971 yard range.  These numbers do not include Owen Daniels who was on track for a Top Five finish before being injured at mid-season and Jermichael Finley who had 38 catches and 416 yards in the final seven games.  From a depth perspective 14 tight ends caught 50 of more passes and twenty had 500 yards or more.  

Based on these stats, the key to drafting at the tight end position is patience.  Elite talents such as Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates still exist but due to the depth one should feel comfortable waiting to fill this roster spot until the middle of the draft.  Also, be willing to consider taking tight ends as flex position candidates especially in deeper leagues.

Tier I: The Best of a Deep Group

1. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis—Clark was the biggest beneficiary of Marvin Harrison's departure catching a career high 100 passes and 1,106 yards.  He could lose some catches as the young receiver mature but seeing how his role has increased each of the past three seasons it is hard to imagine him sliding too far.  Expect a 90 catch, 1,000 yard 10 TD season.  Clark was a unanimous selection as the No. 1 tight end.

2. Jason Witten, Dallas—Witten continues to be Tony Romo's favorite receiver but he has slid into a bit of a safety valve role the past two season resulting in good catch numbers but lacking in red zone targets. 

3. Antonio Gates, San Diego—Gates proved he was healthy and re-established himself as the league's best big-play tight end with a 78 catch 1,157 yard season.  Expect him to challenge for most valuable tight end honors this season.  Expect an early season boost in Weeks One-Three while Vincent Jackson is suspended.  On the negative side, the addition of Ryan Mathews could bring more balance to the offense.

4. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta—Gonzalez slipped a notch in 2009 but much of the decline was due to playing in a more conservative offense.  Sometimes it is better to bail on an aging vet a year early than a year late but the 34 year old Gonzalez appears to have at least one more strong fantasy season in him.

Tier II: Need To Prove 2009 Was Not a Fluke

5. Vernon Davis, San Francisco—After ranking among the biggest fantasy busts each of his first three seasons, Davis rewarded those owners crazy enough to draft him last season with a 965 yard 13 touchdown season.  Expect a small decline this season as the 49ers put a renewed emphasis to the running game but he will remain a key cog in the 49ers offense this season.

6. Brent Celek, Philadelphia—Aside from Vernon Davis, Celek was the biggest tight end surprise last season and will look to build upon his 76-971-8 TD season.  He had 16 catches and 208 yards in Kevin Kolb's two starts last season.

7. Jermichael Finley, Green Bay—Finley had 38-418-4 in the last seven games last season making him the popular breakout pick this year.  Expect him to double those numbers this season.

8. Owen Daniels, Houston—Daniels was on pace for a 1,000 yard season before tearing his ACL in week eight last season.  Like Wes Welker, he has elite talent if healthy but be sure to pay attention to his recovery during camp before investing to heavily.

Tier III: Capable Starters

9. Zach Miller, Oakland—Miller is the Raiders best and most accomplished receiver.  Has improved his catches and yards for three consecutive seasons.  Had 66 catches and 805 yards despite mediocre quarterback play.   Look for his numbers to equal if not exceed those numbers now that tight end friendly quarterback Jason Campbell is in town.  All he needs to join the elite is a few more touchdowns.

10. Chris Cooley, Washington—As long as he is healthy Cooley should benefit from the addition of Donovan McNabb and Mike Shanahan's tight end friendly offense.  A return to the 70 catch 750 yard club is possible.

11. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay—Winslow remains the top receiver on the Bucs roster but the addition of Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams may reduce his role.  His bad knees limit his upside and make a full season unlikely.

12. Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota—Shiancoe is merely average from a catch and yardage standpoint but is a red zone standout with 18 touchdown receptions the past two years.

13. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh—Miller is coming off a career best 76 catch, 789 yard season and his role in the offense is likely to increase due to the departure of Santonio Holmes.  As the team's intermediate option he will be affected less by Roethlisberger's suspension than other Steeler receivers.

14. John Carlson, Seattle—The addition of Russell Okung at left tackle should allow Carlson to play a bigger role in the passing game this season.  Expect a return to or slight improvement upon his 55-627-5 rookie numbers.   Pete Carroll's offense's at USC were often tight end friendly making Carlson a possible breakout candidate.

Tier IV: Starting Ability But Far From Certain

15. Greg Olsen, Chicago—Olsen is an elite athlete who has been on the verge of a breakthrough season the past two years but his hopes for 2010 are murky thanks to the addition of tight end killer Mike Martz. Olsen is a gamble as a starter but could surprise as a backup if Martz comes to his senses.

16. Dustin Keller, NY Jets—Keller has breakout potential based on his athletic ability but the team's run first offense and the addition of Santonio Holmes could lead to another 45 catch 522 yard season.

17. Jeremy Shockey, New Orleans—Shockey has not played a full season in his eight year career and back to back disappointing seasons in the Saints pass happy offense mean his best years are behind him. 

18. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit—Pettigrew is a throwback tight end who can block and catch and will look to build on a solid rookie campaign as long as he knee is 100 percent.  A sleeper candidate, he could emerge as Matthew Stafford's underneath target and get 50+ catches or lose playing time to Tony Scheffler

19. Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati—Gresham is a risk coming off knee surgery last year but he has elite tools if he is healthy.   A bigger concern could be whether offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski will know how to take advantage of a receiving tight end.

20. Kevin Boss, NY Giants—A popular sleeper pick the past two years, Boss has been a fantasy disappointment and while a slight bump is possible a breakthrough season is unlikely. 

Tight Ends 21 - 40

Note: NFLDraft101 rankings are based on: one point per 25 yards passing, one point per 10 yards rushing/receiving, six points per TD (passing, rushing or receiving), on point per reception and -two per interception or lost fumble.

Rankings were done by using the averaging of our staff's individual rankings and were based on a single season not a dynasty league.

Chris Maier is Senior Editor for NFLDraft101.com.  He can be reached at [e-mail].  Follow me on twitter: nfldraft101