We’ve discussed where in the first round WR Andre Johnson belongs (click here to view), but the same question can be asked about the top quarterback on our draft board, Aaron Rodgers. Before we can answer where in the first round he belongs, we have to ask if we would want to select him among the top-12 picks.
Is there enough of a falloff between Rodgers and Tom Brady or Peyton Manning...who will be available two or three rounds later?
My opinion is no. First, let’s look at the numbers from last season:
- Rodgers—4,434 yards, 30 TD, 7 INT
- Manning—4,500 yards, 33 TD, 16 INT
- Brady—4,398 yards, 28 TD, 13 INT
Yes, Rodgers does gain an advantage by what he brings on the ground (316 yards, 5 TD last season), but who is to say that the other two won’t outperform him through the air to help offset that? If I had my druthers, I would be selecting a running back like Johnson in the first round, but sometimes we don’t get what we want.
On my top-40 running backs list (click here to view), I would say the top seven are first-round locks. After that, there’s a big-time gray area.
No. 8—Knowshon Moreno—I love him, as I’ve already discussed (click here to view), but just because I rank him this high doesn’t mean I’m going to take him this early.
Considering his ADP is 32.6, according to Mock Draft Central, there is no reason to. He should be on the board for my second-round pick, and quite possibly my third-round pick, so it’s easy to bypass him in the first round.
You also now have the concerns about his hamstring injury, which will likely cause him to slide a little bit further. It appears that there is no reason to think he won’t be ready for Week 1, but this just adds to the fact that he’s not a first-round pick.
No. 9—DeAngelo Williams—He’s borderline. He brings consistent production the past few seasons, but the presence of Jonathan Stewart does bring with it some questions.
Will the two split carries 50/50? Could that change? I’ve talked about this situation in the past (click here to view), and determined that Stewart actually held more value, since you could get him two rounds later in drafts.
It’s close, but I’d rather take Rodgers. In the first round, I want to get a sure thing and I’m just not sure Williams is it for 2010.
No. 10—Ryan Grant—Rodgers' teammate, it’s easy to answer whom the star of the team is. Considering the offense runs through Rodgers, why wouldn’t I select him over Grant?
The fact is, the difference in the running backs at this point is minimal and there are questions surrounding all of them. While I may rather wait to grab a QB, it doesn’t make sense to.
To me, Rodgers isn’t a top-eight pick. After that, if I don’t get lucky and have one of my top guys left on the board, I’m likely going to grab Rodgers and then focus on running back the next two rounds.
I want to get a sure thing, a definite top performer. At this point, Rodgers certainly is the more comfortable pick.
It’s quite possible that by drafting Rodgers at the end of the first round, you can end up with Rodgers, Moreno, and either Stewart or LeSean McCoy (or something similar). Is there anything wrong with that?
What are your thoughts? Would you draft Rodgers in the first round? If so, when?
Make sure to check out Rotoprofessor’s 2010 rankings:
Also, make sure to check out our recent rookie rankings:
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