Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions TE, Realistic Production Goal in 2010?

In my recent article, HäMMëR's Top 10 Personnel Moves by Detroit Lions GM Martin Mayhew , Lions Community members and I discussed one of my omissions: the Roy Williams to Dallas trade.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/425442-hmmrs-top-10-personnel-acquisitions-by-detroit-lions-gm-martin-mayh

Here’s what “Hazy Lion” and Michael Sudds had to say about the top 10 snub:

Hazy Lion posted 5 days ago

Great read. Enjoyed it. I was a little surprised by the omission on the Roy Williams trade, although they did not get "personnel" in return.

Michael Sudds posted 5 days ago

Nice job, John! When Mayhew got that "Interim" tag put on him after Villen (love that!) was fired, I started my own talent search. That is until the Grand Theft Cowboys caper. Whoa Nelly! Who is this guy?

Bleacher Report Lions Community member Cory Sanders shared some very good points, creating robust discussion regarding the Roy Williams trade:

Cory Sanders posted 5 days ago

I gotta agree with Hazy Lion—the Roy Williams trade, although it sealed the deal on 0-16, is the best move that Mayhew has made so far. I also think it's too early to say Suh belongs on this list, especially at #1. I hope that ends up the case, but who knows are this point.

When did you become such a raging optimist?!

John Farrier posted 4 days ago

Hey Cory! Yes, I know there are many who would place the Roy Williams trade to Dallas high on their list of best personnel moves by Martin Mayhew, but based on the current results, I am far from impressed to say the least.

Let's ask ourselves, "Who did we get in return for Roy Williams?"

I think Ndamukong Suh will be better than all three of those players put together by the time all is said and done.

Again, for reasons known best to myself, this is my top-10 list w/ honorable mention. I look at things 360 degrees and from a value perspective. There's no value in the Pettigrew signing. There's no value in the Derrick Williams signing. There's no value in the Aaron Brown signing. The absence of value will not get a personnel move on my top-10 list.

There is no value in the Pettigrew pick because he did not outplay his draft position (#20 overall). Same for Williams and Brown.

Cory Sanders posted 4 days ago

Good response—I see your logic, but I still would say that when the trade was made, there was no idea of what players would be drafted. No matter how those three players' careers pan out, the deal itself was a steal.

John Farrier posted 4 days ago

@Cory: Hey Cory! When the trade was made, absolutely, my friend. At the time it was an outstanding trade. I just wish I had been the guy making the selections at #20 and #82 ;)

Let’s review the trade as captured by the folks at Wiki:

#20: Dallas → Detroit (PD). Dallas traded its first-, third-, and sixth-round selections (20th, 82nd, and 192nd overall, used to select Brandon Pettigrew, Derrick Williams, and Aaron Brown, respectively) to Detroit for wide receiver Roy Williams and a seventh-round selection (210th overall, traded to Atlanta, who selected Vance Walker).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NFL_Draft#Trades

Since the production of both Derrick Williams and Aaron Brown has been minimal, and because each player’s chances of making the final 53-man roster are suspect, I find it reasonable to leave them out of the discussion.

Let’s review the 2009 production of Brandon Pettigrew and Roy Williams.

Roy Williams started 13 of his 15 games played. He had 38 catches for 596 yards, with an average yards per catch of 15.7, and seven touchdowns. Roy’s longest catch of the year was a touchdown grab for 66 yards.

Brandon Pettigrew saw action in and started 11 games. He collected 30 receptions for 346 yards, an average yards per catch of 11.5. Pettigrew’s longest reception on the season went for 30 yards. Brandon caught two touchdowns, one which helped to prove the game-clincher over Cleveland.

Pettigrew wasn’t healthy to start the 2009 season. It looked at one point as though injuries might keep Brandon from beginning the 2010 campaign as a member of the active roster. Fortunately, good health seems to be on Brandon’s side this summer, making this the first time in three years that he would be healthy to begin a football season.

First, it should be made known that Brandon Pettigrew was never drafted primarily as a receiving threat. He was drafted because of his blocking ability (recall when he helped to shut out Brian Orakpo in the Oklahoma State v. Texas game a couple years back), and because he was enough of a receiving threat to leave on the field on third down situations.

The average annual production of the top 12 NFL tight ends is 75 catches for 869 yards, averaging 11.6 yards per catch, 55.4 average yards per game, and seven touchdowns.

For a tight end known primarily for his blocking ability, it seems a little unfair to hold him to the production standard of a “receiving” TE (i.e. Tony Scheffler). I think it is fair, considering the franchise spent the 20th overall selection in the 2009 NFL Draft to acquire his services. From the perspective of Brandon Pettigrew’s draft status, I think my production goal for the Detroit Lions starting tight end isn’t too high. However, I do think he’ll have to make the most out of every opportunity to achieve it.

HäMMëR's Goal	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD
Brandon Pettigrew	64	800	12.5	50	8

I would like to see Brandon Pettigrew outperform division rival tight ends Greg Olsen (Bears), Visanthe Shiancoe (Vikings), and Jermichael Finley (Packers). If Brandon Pettigrew can reach the production goals I have outlined, he will do exactly that.

I don’t think it can be stated enough how much it matters that QB Matthew Stafford and TE Brandon Pettigrew are headed into their second season under coach Linehan together.  Stafford has been in Detroit since mid-March, studying film and getting after the playbook so he’ll be ready on Sundays.

Last year’s AFC Pro Bowl representatives at tight end were Antonio Gates from San Diego and Dallas Clark of Indianapolis. Heath Miller from Pittsburgh played in Clark’s stead, as Super Bowl participants opted not to participate in the Pro Bowl.

Vernon Davis of the San Francisco 49ers and Jason Witten from the Dallas Cowboys were the NFC Pro Bowl selections at tight end.

Is there room for inclusion into this elite group of players for Brandon Pettigrew? All of the top 12 tight ends are outstanding players, and add to the multidimensional nature of each team’s offense.

Detroit Lions fans want the same thing from Brandon Pettigrew.

I sure do.

One of the difficult issues to assess when deriving production goals is to properly "weigh" or "discount" Pettigrew’s prospective production based on other available targets. 

In other words, how much should production be discounted due to the presence of WR Calvin Johnson, WR Nate Burleson, TE Tony Scheffler and RB Jahvid Best?

I’m envisioning Pettigrew owning a physical mismatch from eight to 12 yards downfield, which is why I think a 12.5 yards per catch average is well within his reach. I mean, if he catches the ball for a 10-yard gain, he should be able to get 2.5 more yards with a step and falling forward.

Brandon Pettigrew should ultimately benefit from the "less is more" offensive opportunity he is likely to encounter during the 2010 Detroit Lions season. With tremendous athleticism on display by Calvin Johnson, Tony Scheffler, and Jahvid Best, Pettigrew could clean up big over the middle, working the seam and breaking off an occasional intermediate gainer.

The Brandon Pettigrew play that stands out the most for me from his 2009 rookie campaign is when he caught the touchdown pass from Stafford with no time left on the clock against the Cleveland Browns.

In reviewing the film, Pettigrew ran a great route to beat the linebackers. He stayed on his route after contact, getting to the hole on time and on target, as he caught a laser-beam pass from Matthew Stafford high on his left hip.

Pettigrew demonstrated he is calm under pressure by not panicking and displayed tremendous focus when his team needed him the most. Stafford chose to throw to Pettigrew, and he rewarded Prince Matthew and the Lions’ faithful with a brilliant, timely catch.

Do you remember the rejoicing?!  It was AWESOME!

Not long after it was announced that former Detroit Lions TE Charlie Sanders had been selected for induction into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Sanders gushed over Pettigrew’s potential. The high praise from the Hall of Famer is enough to give many Lions fans high hopes for increased production during Brandon’s second year with the club.

Making 64 catches for 800 yards and scoring eight touchdowns would be a wonderful accomplishment for Brandon Pettigrew during his sophomore season in Detroit. Honestly, his catches, yardage gained and scores won’t be the real tale of the tape. It will demonstrate his improvement as a receiver, but the larger gain needs to be fewer sacks, hits, and pressures on QB Matthew Stafford, and consistent, increased gains in the running game.

Ultimately, I want nothing more than for Brandon Pettigrew to become highly successful at his craft and make a contribution to the success of the Detroit Lions that is equivalent to or greater than his draft status. With the many talented prospects available for selection when Pettigrew was selected, it would be a real shame for him to bust.

Because the selection of Brandon Pettigrew to me did not meet the criteria of BATFAN (best available that fits a need), for an entire year I anguished in every way over the pick.

Just because the Detroit Lions front office places a different premium than I do regarding certain aspects of assembling a winning franchise, doesn’t mean I can’t learn to support the pick. Research helps to alleviate that problem of mine.

For a position group once suspect, young talent is ready to emerge and demonstrate why the tight end position will become an offensive strength for the 2010 Detroit Lions.

A healthy Pettigrew should translate to a healthy Stafford. If the 2010 season is to be a success, the health of both players will be necessary.

The fact that Brandon Pettigrew is not on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list is good news going into training camp.

If he can emerge from the four preseason games and 17-week schedule as a member of the active roster, I know the Detroit Lions will win more games in 2010 than they did in 2009.

Here’s to your good health, Brandon!

Cheers!

HäMM ë R