Fantasy Football Draft Day Sleeper: Is Alex Smith Worth the Risk?

Eric StashinJul 30, 2010

Alex Smith, the first overall draft pick in 2005, can only have his career categorized as a disappointment.

Only twice has he thrown for over 2,000 yards in a season. He’s never thrown for more than 18 touchdowns in a season, though that did come last year in just 11 appearances.

In fact, last season was the first time he had thrown more TDs than INTs in his career (18/12). While, to this point he has been a bust, could it be that he has finally turned the corner?

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Smith missed all of 2008 with a broken bone in his shoulder and failed to win the starting job in training camp last year. However, with Shaun Hill struggling in Week Seven, Smith was put in and led the 49ers back from a 21-0 deficit, never looking back.

He finished the year completing 60.5 percent of his passes, tied for 17th in the league. That’s pretty good for a “bust”, huh?

While it’s certainly not great, it’s not too shabby. He also had 2,350 yards and, as already stated, the best TD/INT ratio of his career.

A lot has to do with the talent around him, as the 49ers actually have a group that could generate some points.

It starts in the backfield with Frank Gore, who is one of the better running backs in the game with over 1,000 yards a season each of the past four seasons.

If all he did was help take pressure off the passing game, it would be enough, but he does more. He is a threat to catch 50 or more passes out of the backfield, providing one heck of a safety valve.

Next, you have Vernon Davis, who turned a corner of his own in ‘09. He set career highs in receptions (78), yards (965) and TDs (13).

That doesn’t even mention that the majority of his success came after Smith was returned to QB. He had 10 of his TDs after Week Seven, as well as all three of his 100+ yard games. Needless to say, the two clearly have developed a rapport.

On the outside, Michael Crabtree has the potential to emerge as one of the better receivers in the league. He played in only 11 games in his rookie year, catching 48 passes for 625 yards and two touchdowns. With a full training camp under his belt, the former first-round pick should emerge quickly.

They also brought in the enigmatic Ted Ginn Jr., and still have Josh Morgan entering his third year (and coming off a 52-catch season).

The talent is there, and with Smith showing signs of success, he certainly has the potential to be a usable option in two-quarterback formats, albeit a low-end one.

He’s currently ranked 19th on our Top 25 Quarterbacks list (click here to view), with plenty of upside.

His current ADP is about 279 according to Mock Draft Central, the 23rd quarterback coming off the board. Seems to me that at that point, he’s certainly worth the flyer. With his potential and the low risk involved, owners have little to lose.

What are your thoughts on Smith? Could he take the next step forward? How good could he be in 2010?

Make sure to check out our 2010 rankings: